The ACC was a longshot to begin with this season, but dropped out of the playoff conversation after Wake Forest lost at North Carolina on Nov. 6. Now, the Big 12 is in trouble after No. 8 Oklahoma, the conference's top contender and only undefeated team, lost to No. 13 Baylor with one of the most unimpressive offensive showings under coach Lincoln Riley.
So with two of the five most powerful conferences in college football without a legitimate title contender, the door is open for ...
Two SEC teams? Undefeated Cincinnati? One-loss Notre Dame?
Here's a look at how the Sooners' loss impacted the playoff picture, along with other realistic scenarios the selection committee might have to debate this week and on Selection Day:
Things keep falling into place for Cincinnati.
Cincinnati won twice this weekend -- first on Friday night when it went on the road and beat South Florida 45-28, and again on Saturday when Oklahoma lost to Baylor, eliminating the possibility of an undefeated Big 12 champion ultimately leapfrogging the Bearcats.
OU's loss might have doomed the Big 12 entirely, as the Sooners didn't resemble anything close to a top-four team and still lack a marquee win. That gives Cincinnati an edge over the Big 12, but the Bearcats still need some help because the committee has made it clear their undefeated record alone isn't enough.
An Oregon loss might be all it takes, though -- even if both Georgia and Alabama maintain their hold on the top two spots. ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Ducks a 37.7% chance to win at Utah on Saturday. A second loss would drop them out of the top four, making room for the Bearcats -- that's assuming, though, that Cincinnati hangs onto the No. 5 spot.
The top four teams all won on Saturday, so it's unlikely the pecking order changes Tuesday, when the next rankings are announced. The entire top seven could stay status quo. While it's possible that Michigan jumps Cincinnati after its gritty win at Penn State, it doesn't seem likely because the Bearcats' win against Notre Dame still trumps anything on Michigan's résumé.
Selection committee chair Gary Barta said last week that the group respects a win against the unranked Nittany Lions, but Cincinnati's best win is against a CFP top-10 team, and Notre Dame won again on Saturday against Virginia. Michigan's best win is against No. 18 Wisconsin.
Is the Big 12 really done?
The selection committee wasn't too impressed with Oklahoma before it lost to Baylor on Saturday. Now the Sooners will fall into a pack of one-loss teams, likely behind Notre Dame and probably Oklahoma State. The Cowboys won convincingly against TCU on Saturday, and unlike the Sooners, they were able to defeat Baylor 24-14 with home-field advantage.
OU could also fall behind two-loss teams like Ole Miss and ... Baylor (ah, that head-to-head conversation again). Technically, a one-loss Big 12 champion still has a shot, especially if Oregon and Cincinnati both were to lose. The reality, though, is that the Big 12's best teams don't look good enough.
Baylor's defense held Oklahoma to 260 total yards, the fewest the Sooners have had in a game under Riley. Caleb Williams had his worst game since taking over as Oklahoma's starting quarterback, throwing for only 146 yards and no touchdowns.
Williams was one of the few things the committee did like about Oklahoma.
It doesn't help OU or Oklahoma State that Iowa State lost on Saturday. The Cowboys lost to an unranked, four-loss Cyclones team -- the Sooners' next opponent. Oklahoma entered Saturday with a 58% chance to make the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor (fourth-highest). That number sank to 32% after the loss, now fifth-best.
It's not impossible, but it certainly looks improbable, especially when ...
In mid-November, two SEC teams remain a very real possibility.
Georgia's trip to Tennessee on Saturday was its most difficult game remaining in the regular season, and the Bulldogs stiff-armed any hint of an upset. With a home game against Charleston Southern followed by a trip to 3-6 Georgia Tech, nothing would be more surprising this year than a Georgia loss.
Literally, nothing.
An undefeated Power 5 team is the key to a conference having a chance at two teams finishing in the top four, and the SEC is the only one that can still make that claim. If Alabama and Georgia win out, there's a 95% chance both teams finish in the top four, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Here's why:
Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC championship: If it wins the West, Alabama could win the SEC and hand the Bulldogs their only loss of the season in the league title game. The selection committee would certainly take the one-loss SEC champion, and mostly likely its one-loss runner-up, especially if the Bulldogs hang onto the committee's top spot through five rankings and lose a close game to the No. 2 team in the country. ESPN's Football Power Index gives Alabama at least a 79% chance to win each of its remaining games -- Nov. 20 against Arkansas and Nov. 27 in the regular-season finale at rival Auburn.
Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC championship: Alabama could become the first two-loss team to finish in the top four -- and it would drive fans of undefeated Cincinnati mad if it happened at the Bearcats' expense. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there is a 70% chance a 13-0 Georgia AND an 11-2 Alabama would finish in the top four. There's a human element, though, that makes it less certain. It would probably have to be a thriller of a close game and have the makings of an instant classic -- unless the chaos elsewhere continues and the committee deems the Tide "unequivocally" one of the four best teams. What if Oregon finishes as a two-loss conference champion, and Alabama finishes as a two-loss non-champion? One way or another, the committee would make a statement on the value of conference championship games. Would a two-loss Alabama that didn't win its league still usurp a one-loss Big 12 champion? (Based on what we've seen to this point? Probably.) Wins against Ole Miss, Arkansas and Auburn (now a three-loss team), would have to be enough to justify it, along with the statistics and so-called eye test.
Will Ohio State Buckeyes jump Oregon in spite of the head-to-head?
Best guess: Not yet.
Ohio State's offense put on a clinic in its 59-31 win against No. 19-ranked Purdue on Saturday, its most impressive performance against a top 25 opponent this season.
It's still probably not enough to jump the Ducks this week, but if Ohio State can run the table -- which won't be easy with No. 7 Michigan State and No. 6 Michigan to end the season -- the Buckeyes will likely finish ahead of Oregon in spite of the Sept. 11 35-28 home loss to the Ducks.
By ranking Michigan ahead of Michigan State less than two weeks after the Spartans beat the Wolverines, the selection committee showed that head-to-head results can be outweighed by other factors. Previous committees have done that, too, so it certainly wouldn't be unprecedented, especially if Oregon finishes with two losses and Ohio State only has one.
Even if they finish as identical one-loss conference champions, though, Ohio State's remaining strength of schedule, which is currently No. 9 in the country, is more impressive than Oregon's No. 22 slate. The Ducks' toughest remaining game is at Utah. If Ohio State finishes as a one-loss Big Ten champion, it will have defeated four straight ranked opponents, including in the league title game.
Oregon will have defeated three CFP top 25 teams all season -- none bigger, though, than Ohio State.
Does one-loss Notre Dame still have a chance?
No. 9 Notre Dame remains a longshot and needs more help than Cincinnati -- which it lost to.
Oklahoma's loss to Baylor also impacted the Irish, though, giving them a good chance to move up to the No. 8 spot on Tuesday, assuming the Sooners tumble. The Big Ten's top teams -- No. 4 Ohio State, No. 6 Michigan and No. 7 Michigan State -- will continue to sort themselves out.
Somebody is going to have two losses. Maybe two somebodies.
So while it's realistic to think Notre Dame can ultimately jump two Big Ten East teams, that's still not enough. Even if Cincinnati stumbles and loses a game, and the Bearcats and Irish both finish with a loss, will the selection committee still honor the head-to-head result in South Bend? It has been inconsistent with that already this season, but it would be a particularly controversial move by the committee to undermine the Bearcats' signature win of the season.
Statistically, Cincinnati has been better both offensively and defensively, but Notre Dame's overall strength of schedule (No. 38) is significantly better than the Bearcats (No. 100). Still, Notre Dame's best win -- and its only win against a CFP top 25 team -- was its 41-13 win against Wisconsin on Sept. 25 in Soldier Field.
What if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten?
Without a conference championship game, Notre Dame needs all of the help it can get -- and it needs to end the season with convincing wins against Georgia Tech and Stanford, opponents that are a combined 6-13. Notre Dame has looked average this season against average competition, but in a season that's already been filled with upsets, the Irish can at least hope for more.