It could be said that covering politics is a lot like covering sports: campaigns as horse races, blind and often destructive team allegiances, and so on. But it goes in the other direction too: Covering sports is often an extremely political exercise. That's particularly true in the way that, no matter what, any new piece of evidence reinforces our previous beliefs.
Case in point: No matter how a given season plays out -- with a couple of obvious, dominant teams at the top or with far more parity and chaos -- it reinforces our established beliefs in how college football's national title should be determined.
Person A: Georgia is the only genuinely dominant team this year? That's just proof we don't need to expand the College Football Playoff! We already know what the most deserving team is, and we don't need to invite more people to the party! In fact, bring back the BCS!
Person B: Georgia is the only genuinely dominant team this year, but it's pretty hard to separate, say, Team No. 2 from Team No. 10? That's proof we need to expand the playoff to eight teams (or 12 or 16 or 24)! We could have some amazing playoff games, even if we know who will probably win the title! The journey is as important as the destination!
We might as well be arguing about tax cuts.
For the record, I very much resemble Person B. But with playoff expansion all but certain to take shape over the coming weeks and months -- we don't quite know if the playoffs will expand to eight teams or 12, but signs point to expansion of some sort -- let's look at how 2021's national title race is taking shape in the current iteration of the CFP, and let's look at how an expanded playoff would affect how we're looking at the season's stretch run. What would we be arguing about with an eight- or 12-team format (or 24!)? Which games would take on increased or decreased importance in a different format?
The current four-team model
Since the top seven teams in the CFP rankings all won this weekend, there's a chance not too much changes when the new rankings are unveiled on Tuesday night. (Then again, the CFP committee is always capable of some surprises, for better or worse.) We're guaranteed movement in the coming weeks, however: No. 1 Georgia and No. 2 Alabama are quite likely to play each other in the SEC championship game in three weeks*; No. 4 Ohio State will play No. 7 Michigan State and No. 6 Michigan over the next two Saturdays; and while No. 8 Oklahoma will almost certainly fall following its loss to Baylor, the Sooners and No. 10 Oklahoma State could have two dates with each other in the coming weeks.
* The ultimate chaos scenario in the SEC does still exist, however. According to ESPN Stats & Information, if Alabama loses to both Arkansas and Auburn, Ole Miss beats Vanderbilt but loses to Mississippi State, Auburn beats South Carolina, Arkansas beats Missouri and Texas A&M beats LSU, we could end up with a six-way tie for the SEC West lead at 5-3. (Auburn would go to Atlanta if this were to all play out. ESPN's FPI suggests there is a 0.2% chance of this happening. But it's a chance!
Résumés will change, and the odds cranked out by the Allstate Playoff Predictor are changing already. It currently gives Georgia a 96% chance of reaching the final four, while four teams (Alabama, Ohio State, Cincinnati and a quickly rising Notre Dame) are between 46% and 64%, Michigan is at 34%, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are between 15% and 25% and Oregon (5%) and Michigan State (2%) are still holding out hope.
Let's game this out a bit further. Let's pretend for a moment that the projected favorite, per FPI (the driver of the Predictor), wins each remaining game for the current top five teams: Georgia wins out; Alabama wins the next two but loses to Georgia; No. 3 Oregon loses at least once to Utah; and Ohio State and Cincinnati both win out (Notre Dame does too). There are enough relative toss-ups in there that we should see at least one or two surprises, but if things play out in this way, the Predictor gives Georgia a 100% chance of reaching the field, Ohio State 98%, Cincinnati 87%, Notre Dame 64% and Alabama 21%. If Oklahoma or Oklahoma State also wins out, either would creep ahead of Bama but would still be behind the other four.
That suggests the following four-team playoff:
1. Georgia (13-0) vs. 4. Notre Dame (11-1)
2. Ohio State (12-1) vs. 3. Cincinnati (13-0)
It also suggests a hypothetical hierarchy that looks something like this:
13-0 Georgia (SEC champion)
12-1 Alabama (SEC champion)
12-1 Georgia
12-1 Big Ten champion (be it Ohio State, Michigan State or Michigan)
12-1 Oregon (Pac-12 champion)
13-0 Cincinnati
11-1 Notre Dame
12-1 Big 12 champion (be it Oklahoma or Oklahoma State)
11-2 Alabama
There's plenty of context within this, of course. If Alabama dominates Arkansas and Auburn and loses narrowly to Georgia in a classic, that might change the calculus. (It's also possible that the Predictor isn't fully taking into account the committee's love for Bama: The Crimson Tide were, after all, the first one-loss team to rank in the top two at the start of the rankings process.) The same might be true if Notre Dame or Cincinnati look particularly lackluster in winning out. Plus, have you noticed how dominant Oklahoma State has looked over its past three games? If the Cowboys were to romp through the next three games, that could certainly have an effect too.
With a four-team playoff in place, we've got plenty of games with direct national title implications on the docket: Michigan State at Ohio State in Week 12; Ohio State at Michigan and Oklahoma at Oklahoma State in Week 13; and the SEC championship game (plus perhaps the Big 12 championship game) the week after. Plus, there are plenty of potentially disruptive games, including Alabama at Auburn, the Big Ten championship game, Oregon State at Oregon and the two Oregon-Utah games.
It should be a fun homestretch, and it could produce any number of exciting playoff matchups:
Georgia vs. Ohio State. I've written a lot about how Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett struggled mightily in 2020 when the Dawgs went up against teams with elite offenses -- Alabama, Florida -- that could score on Georgia's top-ranked defense. The memory of those games lingers, in part because no one has come close to challenging UGA in the same way in 2021.
An offense like Alabama's or Florida's from last season might not exist this year, but if it does, it resides in Columbus. A matchup of two recent national runners-up -- Georgia in 2017, Ohio State in 2020 -- would be tantalizing in itself, especially considering the schools have played only once before (No. 8 Georgia 21, No. 15 Ohio State 14 in the 1993 Citrus Bowl). But such a game also would pit the best defense in the country against the best offense. No complaints whatsoever.
Ohio State vs. Cincinnati. The Luke Fickell Bowl. These schools didn't play each other between 1931 and 1999, and the Bearcats haven't landed many solid blows on the in-state heavyweights since last beating the Buckeyes in 1897. But they almost beat Ohio State's 2002 national championship squad -- Cincinnati receivers dropped two potential touchdown passes in the final minute, and the Buckeyes held on 23-19 -- and their teams of the past two seasons might be their best ever. If ever the Bearcats had a chance, it would be this season, with Fickell, the former Ohio State tackle and longtime assistant, in charge.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma State. The 2011 semifinal we never got. Alabama eked out a spot in the BCS championship game ahead of Oklahoma State that year and ended up taking the national title in a rematch with LSU. Granted, the poor viewership for said rematch was one of the final drivers in the push for the CFP in the first place, so it might be good that the Pokes took one for the team there. But to say the least, Oklahoma State fans have been pining for a shot like this ever since.
Alabama vs. Oregon. Nick Saban vs. former assistant Mario Cristobal. This won't be the Saban vs. peak-level Chip Kelly postseason matchup I wanted a decade or so ago, but it would be a solid consolation.
Georgia vs. Oklahoma. ESPNU would show these teams' classic 2017 Rose Bowl semifinal -- Dawgs 54, Sooners 48 in overtime -- every single day between the CFP unveil and the games themselves, and I would watch it every time it came on.
Georgia vs. Notre Dame. Kirby Smart-Brian Kelly III. These teams played stellar rock fights in 2017 and 2019. Georgia won both, but only by a combined 43-36.
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame. The most important Spartans-Irish game since the famous tie of 1966.
There's also the possibility of some strange rematches -- Georgia vs. Alabama, Oregon vs. Ohio State, Notre Dame vs. Cincinnati -- that would appeal to some and cause some serious "What's the point of the regular season?" hand-wringing for others. But we're focusing on the positives.
The stretch run is going to be a blast no matter what, but let's see how things might have taken shape on Earth-2, Earth-3 and Earth-4.
A hypothetical eight-team playoff
At some point in the coming weeks, it appears likely that the CFP's management committee will decide to expand the playoff to either eight or 12 teams. If it's going to be in place by the 2024 season, the decision has to take place quickly, and it probably will.
It appears expansion to a 12-team playoff is most likely, but an eight-teamer -- presumably with automatic bids for either the top six conference champions or the champions of the Power 5 conferences and the top-ranked Group of 5 team (a slight but occasionally significant difference) -- remains on the table for now. Let's see how such a playoff would be taking shape at the moment.
Once you get into a mix of automatic bids and at-large teams, you end up with two different lists. Here are the current power conference title odds, per FPI. I'll list any team with odds of 2% or greater.
• SEC: Georgia 60%, Alabama 40%
• Big Ten: Ohio State 49%, Michigan 21%, Wisconsin 20%, Iowa 4%, Michigan State 4%
• Big 12: Oklahoma 44%, Oklahoma State 38%, Baylor 17%
• ACC: Pitt 52%, Wake Forest 30%, NC State 7%, Clemson 6%, Virginia 5%
• Pac-12: Utah 53%, Oregon 45%
The Group of 5 representative would likely be either Cincinnati (48% chance of winning out and reaching 13-0), UTSA (37% chance of winning out and reaching 13-0), Houston (22% chance of winning out and reaching 12-1) or, if it reaches the Mountain West championship game, San Diego State (21% chance of winning out and reaching 12-1). I'm not sure who the committee would prefer if Cincinnati were to lose, but it's safe to say that one of these four would be the sixth team in an eight-team field.
That leaves the two at-large teams. Based on the rankings and the hypotheticals above, we could say that the general hierarchy would probably be something like this:
12-1 Georgia
11-1 Notre Dame
11-2 Alabama
11-2 Big Ten runner-up (if the East champion is upset in the Big Ten championship)
10-2 Big Ten East runner-up
11-2 Oregon (if the Ducks lose in the Pac-12 championship)
While we basically have 10 semirealistic remaining contenders with a four-team field, we would have approximately 20 with an eight-team field. And based on some combination of odds and my own predictions, we'd be looking at CFP pairings something like this:
1. Georgia (13-0) vs. 8. Pitt (11-2)
4. Notre Dame (11-1) vs. 5. Alabama (11-2)
3. Cincinnati (13-0) vs. 6. Oregon (11-2)
2. Ohio State (12-1) vs. 7. Oklahoma State (11-2)
Whether these matchups would happen on home fields or in a different tier of bowls has yet to be determined. Personally, Bama having to travel to South Bend, Indiana, for only the third time ever, in search of its first win there, sounds pretty damn delightful. That's what I would be rooting for.
Homestretch games that would have national title implications:
Week 12: Michigan State at Ohio State, Oregon at Utah, Virginia at Pitt, Wake Forest at Clemson
Week 13: Ohio State at Michigan, Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
Championship weekend: SEC championship, Big Ten championship, Big 12 championship, Pac-12 championship, AAC championship, ACC championship and maybe the C-USA and MWC championships.
Championship weekend would become twice as massive as it already is, and games like Wake Forest's Week 11 win over NC State -- which increased the Demon Deacons' odds of winning the ACC Atlantic to 74% -- would be more impactful, as well.
The tradeoff for these higher stakes, of course, is that we'd hand out a few more mulligans. Whereas the four teams in this year's actual CFP will likely have combined for three to five losses, the teams in an eight-team field would have combined for about seven to 11 losses.
We also would have potentially limited the importance of both early-season games like Oregon's win at Ohio State (there's a chance the Ducks would be sent right back to Columbus for a quarterfinal matchup) and late-season games like Nov. 20's Oregon-Utah battle (neither the Ducks nor Utes would have a ton of motivation to play all of their cards if they were likely to meet for a playoff spot two weeks later).
Still, while a few games lose importance, a lot more gain it.
A hypothetical 12-team playoff
Now we start to open the umbrella pretty wide and hand out even more mulligans. Basically any power conference team with one or two losses would enter the homestretch with a shot at snaring a bid -- so, not only the potential at-large teams listed above, but also Baylor, a possible 11-2 Oklahoma or Oklahoma State (if they split their two late games), Ole Miss, Iowa or 14th-ranked BYU. A well-placed three-loss team such as Texas A&M, Wisconsin or even Arkansas would still have a smidgen of hope too, as would a 12-1 Cincinnati that loses the AAC title game and either a 13-0 UTSA or 12-1 San Diego State that wins the MWC. The number of teams still harboring at least marginal playoff hopes would be from 25 to 30, and a game like Saturday night's Ole Miss win over Texas A&M would have carried double the stakes. And it was already pretty fantastic.
The homestretch would include not only the heavy-implications games referenced in the eight-team section above, but it also would raise stakes through the roof for upcoming road tests such as Baylor at Kansas State (Nov. 20), Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (Nov. 20), Iowa at Nebraska (Nov. 26), BYU at USC (Nov. 27), Wisconsin at Minnesota (Nov. 27) and, of course, Thanksgiving's Egg Bowl of Ole Miss at Mississippi State. The home team would not only have a chance to take down a rival, it would have an opportunity to quash title hopes too. Double the schadenfreude!
After a three-week mad dash to finish up the regular season, we'd likely end up with a playoff resembling this:
(Editor's note: We changed these matchups slightlyafter being reminded that under the current proposal, only conference champs would be eligible for top-four seeds. Sorry, Notre Dame.)
First round
9. Pitt (11-2) at 8. Michigan (10-2)
12. Oklahoma (11-2) at 5. Alabama (11-2)
11. Ole Miss (10-2) at 6. Notre Dame (11-1)
10. Michigan State (10-2) at 7. Oklahoma State (11-2)
Quarterfinals
1. Georgia (13-0) vs. Michigan/Pitt
4. Oregon (11-2) vs. Alabama/Oklahoma
3. Cincinnati (13-0) vs. Notre Dame/Ole Miss
2. Ohio State (12-1) vs. Oklahoma State/Michigan State
Oklahoma's second-ever trip to Tuscaloosa, Ole Miss' second-ever trip to South Bend, Kenny Pickett in the Big House and the first-ever Oklahoma State-Michigan State game? That's a pretty spectacular undercard, even before we get to the main events.
For all of the politics and resulting bitterness involved in the current expansion process -- the "8 vs. 12" debate; the SEC's behind-closed-doors pursuit of Oklahoma and Texas; the resulting conference realignment on the horizon; the thought of a team potentially playing a 17-game season; the impending fight for athletes to receive a cut of playoff money -- this would be a spectacle and a half.
A hypothetical 24-team playoff
We won't spend a lot of time on this because it's not on the table and won't be anytime soon. But my what-if brain can't help itself sometimes. The FCS playoffs include 24 teams (complete with any participating conference champion), Division II includes 28 and Division III includes 32. Let's take a moment to peel the onion on a 24-team FBS tournament with 10 conference champions:
First round
17. Texas A&M (9-3) at 16. UTSA (13-0)
24. Northern Illinois (9-4) at 9. Pitt (11-2)
21. Utah (9-4) at 12. Oklahoma (11-2)
20. NC State (9-3) at 13. Baylor (10-2)
22. Appalachian State (11-2) at 11. Ole Miss (10-2)
19. Wisconsin (9-4) at 14. BYU (10-2)
23. Utah State (10-3) at 10. Michigan State (10-2)
18. Wake Forest (10-3) at 15. Iowa (10-2)
Second round
UTSA/Texas A&M at 1. Georgia (13-0)
Pitt/NIU at 8. Michigan (10-2)
Oklahoma/Utah at 5. Alabama (11-2)
Baylor/NC State at 4. Notre Dame (11-1)
Ole Miss/App State at 6. Oregon (11-2)
BYU/Wisconsin at 3. Cincinnati (13-0)
Michigan State/Utah State at 7. Oklahoma State (11-2)
Iowa/Wake Forest at 2. Ohio State (12-1)
Thank you for appeasing me. A&M at UTSA would be an utter delight, and Wake at Iowa would pit two of the most contrasting styles possible. But back to the real world we go.