Intro by Doug Kezirian
A top-10 rivalry game headlines this week's college football card. However, No. 6 Michigan visiting No. 8 Michigan State is also a matchup of schools that public bettors have successfully backed basically the entire season. They are a combined 11-2 ATS against FBS opponents.
"I think we're used to Michigan being very disappointing during the [Jim] Harbaugh years. Michigan State during the [Mark] Dantonio years have always been above expectations. This year, they've both garnered pretty good public support," South Point casino sportsbook director Chris Andrews told ESPN. "This might be the highest ticket count of the week. The money is pretty evenly split."
The Wolverines and Spartans are tied with No. 5 Ohio State atop the Big Ten East standings with a 4-0 conference record. All three still have to play each other and could create a wild race for a berth in the Big Ten championship game.
Ohio State is a -240 favorite to win the conference and rival Michigan is +550, while Sparty is still a 20-1 long shot. From the West Division, Iowa is 10-1 and Wisconsin 12-1. The Badgers host the Hawkeyes on Saturday as 3.5-point favorites.
Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (21-18 overall, 2-0 last week), Bill Connelly (20-20, 2-3), Tyler Fulghum (9-7, 1-2), Joe Fortenbaugh (16-16, 1-3) and David M. Hale (11-10, 2-1) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 9 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Saturday's best bets
No. 2 Cincinnati Bearcats (-24.5, 62.5) at Tulane Green Wave, Noon ET on ESPN2
Kezirian: Tulane is a weak opponent with a horrible defense, and that is exactly the opponent Cincy needs for style points. The Bearcats had a somewhat tough time with Navy's unique offense last weekend, so that's why this matchup is so favorable. UC coach Luke Fickel commented that his team needs to finish better, so that gives me some confidence in laying such a big number. Plus, Tulane QB Michael Pratt is in the concussion protocol and may miss the game. This has all the makings of a blowout.
Pick: Cincinnati -24.5
No. 6 Michigan Wolverines (-4.5, 51) at No. 8 Michigan State Spartans, Noon ET
Fortenbaugh: This game has all the makings of an under. Two defenses that rank in the top 20 in the country in opponent yards per play, one defense that ranks an extraordinary second in scoring (Michigan) while the other ranks 21st (Michigan State), and a Wolverines offense that loves to run the football. And by "loves" I mean the program ranks 11th in both rushing attempts per game and yards per rushing attempt, so not only do the Wolverines love to run the ball, but they're quite good at it as well. That should keep the clock moving, in addition to the fact that the Wolverines rank 100th in the country in tempo. Sparty is off the bye and has had two weeks to prepare for this game, so I expect their defense to get some stops on Saturday.
Pick: Under 51
UCF Knights (-10.5, 51.5) at Temple Owls, Noon ET on ESPN+
Connelly: Since SP+ is not manually adjusted to account for injuries, it was slow to cool on UCF after the Knights lost quarterback Dillon Gabriel to injury. But while they ranked 31st at the time of injury, they've settled in around 61st now.
Temple is 105th. And after a 20-point loss at USF, that feels kind. The Owls defend the pass pretty well, but UCF is finding increasing success on the ground, and I'm not sure Temple can slow that down. I'm also not sure Temple can actually score. SP+ projects an average UCF win of about 34.4 to 22.8, but something more like 30-14 sounds about right to me.
Pick: UCF -10.5
Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls (-13.5, 52), Noon ET
Hale: We're not purveyors of the transitive property of college football, but here's the simplistic view of this game: Buffalo just curb stomped Akron 45-10. Akron demolished Bowling Green three weeks ago 35-20. Therefore, Buffalo has a good chance to absolutely annihilate Bowling Green. And if that's not enough for you, there's this: Buffalo has scored 27 or more in four straight games; Bowling Green hasn't topped 27 all year. Buffalo is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 as a favorite and 14-4 ATS as a home favorite since 2017. And FPI has the Bulls projected to win by nearly 20 -- a full TD (minus the PAT) more than the spread.
Pick: Buffalo -13.5
North Texas Mean Green at Rice Owls (-2.5, 56.5), 2 p.m. ET on ESPN3
Connelly: We're going to call this line a Rice overreaction. The Owls upset UAB last week 30-24 but it was one of the more statistically fluky wins of the year. UAB outgained Rice by an average of 8.2 yards per play to 4.9 but handed Rice an early 13-0 lead via a big kick return and a lost fumble on the Blazers' first snap. They also missed a short field goal and turned the ball over on downs twice. That's a hard recipe to replicate, and Rice only moved up from 126th to 125th in SP+ after the win.
North Texas isn't good by any stretch of the imagination, but the Mean Green have exceeded projections twice in the last three games (a 13-point loss to Missouri and nine-point loss to Liberty, each of which was nearly closer), and SP+ projects a 4.3-point advantage for UNT. This is one of the few games in which there's a healthy cushion between SP+ and the line, and I think the UAB result is why.
Pick: North Texas +2.5
Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers (-10, 47), 3 p.m. ET on ESPN
Hale: It is only a fool who watches the sun rise, day after day, and still confidently predicts that tomorrow will be cast only in darkness. I am that fool.
Clemson is 0-7 against the spread this season and has failed to cover eight straight dating to last year. The Tigers have yet to top 19 points in regulation against an FBS opponent. At 4-3, they've already lost more games than in any season since 2014. Their leading running back is out due to COVID-19 protocols, their best O-lineman is out for the season with a torn ACL, and a dozen other scholarship players, at least, will miss Saturday's game.
Ladies and gentlemen, this is your chance to buy low.
Yes, we've been burned before. Every week feels like it should be the week Clemson finally gets things figured out. Every week Dabo Swinney promises the Tigers are this close. And every week, the Clemson offense looks like the traffic on I-85 through Greenville.
But this time, really, it's going to be different. First, the Tigers really have looked somewhat better on offense of late. Against BC, they had a season high in yardage. Against Syracuse, D.J. Uiagalelei probably had his most effective game throwing the ball. And but for an awful drop by Will Shipley last week, Clemson should've been up 14-0 on Pitt early and then -- who knows? This is never going to evolve into a Trevor Lawrence offense, but at some point -- this week, perhaps! -- it's going to be a unit that can score 30.
The bigger reason to back Clemson here, however, is the defense. As improved as FSU has looked over the past three games, it's still been a distinctly one-note offense. Jordan Travis runs. Jashaun Corbin runs. No one catches the ball. That is not a recipe for success against Brent Venables and the Clemson D. Heck, the Tigers' defense might outscore both offenses in this one.
The jury is in on Clemson. The public has decided the Tigers aren't going to fix what's wrong this season. They may be right. But 10 points against an FSU team that hasn't beaten Clemson since 2014, that started the season 0-4, that has a passing attack every bit as anemic as the Tigers have been? That's an overreaction, and this is the week Clemson shows it has figured a few things out.
Pick: Clemson -10
Connelly: I, too, am that fool. And for me, it simply comes down to matchups. I am not sure when the Clemson offense will progress toward the mean, but I also don't know how FSU is going to move the football consistently. The Seminoles have been improving rapidly in recent weeks, and most of that improvement has come from an increasingly awesome run game. They have averaged 283 rushing yards per game (6.9 per carry) during their three-game winning streak, but Clemson's run defense is in a different league than that of Syracuse, UNC or UMass. If the Noles can't run as well and are falling behind the chains quite a bit, disaster could strike. That could make Clemson -10 a pretty good bet, even if you don't think the Tigers can score more than about 21 or so.
Pick: Clemson -10
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Utah State Aggies (-5.5, 65), 3 p.m. ET
Connelly: Hawai'i has been without starting quarterback Chevan Cordeiro for three games and was without running back Dae Dae Hunter last week as well. But the Warriors maintained their 6.0 yards per play pace and upset Fresno State in Cordeiro's absence, and SP+ actually gives them a 4.6-point advantage over an Aggies team that is a pretty deceptive 5-2. Utah State has been outgained 6.5 yards per play to 5.9 this season and got outgained by 2.1 yards per play last week in a strange win over CSU. The Aggies are not following a sustainable recipe for wins, and while that doesn't mean it will suddenly stop working, it will at some point.
Pick: Hawaii +5.5
Colorado Buffaloes at No. 7 Oregon Ducks (-24, 49), 3:30 p.m. ET
Kezirian: The concern for an Oregon flat spot is legitimate, but otherwise this should be an absolute beatdown. Colorado is a bad football team and has demonstrated its offensive ineptitude throughout the entire season. The Buffs rank in the bottom five of 130 FBS teams in points per game and points per play. They have failed to score more than 14 points in their five losses and the lone outbursts came in wins over winless Arizona and an FCS school.
Meanwhile, while not possessing its vintage offensive attack, Oregon is still a team that pressures defenses with speed and pace. The defense should set up the offense with short fields and the Ducks should be able to put up plenty of points. The Ducks are 0-4 ATS this season in the role of favorite, but I think the situation is just too favorable. Colorado is playing consecutive road games, and after getting smoked 26-3 by a Cal team that had yet to beat an FBS school, I do not expect much fight by the Buffs.
Pick: Oregon -24
No. 10 Ole Miss Rebels at No. 18 Auburn Tigers (-2.5, 66.5), 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
Fortenbaugh: I love the spot here for Auburn. The Tigers have had two weeks to prepare for this one thanks to last weekend's bye and have the added luxury of playing at home under the lights in front of a raucous and well-lubricated capacity crowd. Meanwhile, the Rebels are playing for the fifth consecutive week in a brutal stretch that featured a road date at Alabama, a home contest with Arkansas, a road game at Tennessee and then back home to face LSU. That's a big situational edge for an Auburn squad that has been performing quite admirably under first-year head coach Bryan Harsin. Take note that Ole Miss has covered the number in just one of its last five conference matchups.
Pick: Auburn -2.5
No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats (-1.5, 47) at Mississippi State Bulldogs, 7 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: Kentucky enters Saturday's showdown in Starkville with an extra week of preparation and a defense that ranks top 20 in the nation in both scoring defense and opponent yards per play. On the other sideline stands a Bulldogs squad that is 3-7 against the spread over its last 10 home games and currently ranks 63rd in the country in scoring offense and 79th in yards per play. Not exactly your typical Mike Leach offense. Kentucky has a very realistic shot at a one-loss season, and I don't see Mississippi State getting in the way of that goal.
Pick: Kentucky -1
No. 19 SMU Mustangs at Houston Cougars (-1, 62.5), 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Connelly: The most favorable line in the world: Road Team +1. This line has been hovering around that mark, and since SP+ leans SMU straight up, I'm pouncing.
This is going to be a fascinating game, whether you have money on it or not. Houston's defense has been aggressive and incredibly effective -- the Cougars are allowing 1.3 points per drive (11th in FBS) and rank sixth in success rate allowed. SMU's offense? Ninth in points per drive (3.2) and eighth in success rate.
However that battle plays out, it appears the Mustangs have an advantage on the other side of the ball. They are willing to give up big plays in the name of forcing three-and-outs, but Houston is making far fewer big plays than normal this year. Toss in the fact that the Coogs are coming off of their worst performance in a while (a strange, weather-delayed overtime win over ECU), and I say SMU pulls this one off.
Pick: SMU +1
No. 20 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (-18.5, 61), 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Fortenbaugh: Three weeks ago, Penn State went on the road and led Iowa 17-7 in the second quarter before quarterback Sean Clifford went down with an injury. The Nittany Lions scored only three points the rest of the game and lost 23-20. After a week off, Clifford and PSU returned last Saturday to score an anemic 10 points in regulation against an awful Illinois defense before losing 20-18 in nine overtimes. Now we're being told that Clifford is close to 100 percent, but I'm not buying it. And I'm not buying this Penn State offense either, especially against a Buckeyes defense that has permitted an average of just 12.8 points per game in their five contests since falling to Oregon. Additionally, take note that the Nittany Lions currently rank second in the country in scoring defense and sixth in opponent yards per play. This unit can cause some havoc.
Pick: Under 61
Virginia Cavaliers at BYU Cougars (-2.5, 64), 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Hale: What we know for certain about BYU is the Cougars would run away with the Pac-12. They're 4-0 against Pac-12 foes but just 2-2 in other games, including losses to Baylor and Boise State and a closer-than-it-should-have-been game against woeful USF. On the flip side, we have Virginia. Bronco Mendenhall has tried to tamp down the prodigal son narrative this week, but the former BYU coach certainly had this one circled on his calendar. It's personal.
Set all the narratives aside, however, and what should stand out is this: Virginia has more talent, better athletes and is far more explosive. The Cavaliers' offense looks more like a Lane Kiffin team than Mendenhall's, and they have topped 40 points four times this season behind QB Brennan Armstrong, who leads the country in total offense. FPI pegs the Hoos as a 1-point favorite. We're happy to take the points here.
Pick: Virginia +2.5