Eight weeks into the 2021 college football season, we're to the point where the team you are could be quite different from the team you were at the beginning. Maybe injuries have taken a toll. Maybe you started the season with the wrong guys in the lineup and have since corrected your errors.
For a system like my SP+ ratings, November can be a very volatile month for that very reason -- it's judging your team based, in part, on some impressions that might not be relevant anymore. (This is always an issue, but obviously it was an extreme issue in 2020.) It still tends to fare pretty well overall, but it could under- or oversell certain teams' abilities for the rest of the year.
It's useful, then, to keep an eye out for trends. They're only so helpful in college football because of the ridiculously small sample involved -- three good or bad games would never be considered a trend in a sport with, say, a 162- or 82-game regular season, and it would only mean so much for even a 30-game sport like college basketball. But it's still worthwhile information to monitor, especially if you can glean why a change is taking place and what it might mean for betting lines.
With that in mind, let's walk through how teams' SP+ ratings have shifted over the last month, comparing Week 9's current ratings to Week 5's. Whose stock has risen by a particular amount, whose has fallen, and why?
Largest offensive improvement
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: up 7.2 points*
The legend of Bailey Zappe grows. The Houston Baptist quarterback, who came to WKU with his HBU offensive coordinator and three of his receivers, has thrown for 3,014 yards in seven games, and as preseason projections have begun to carry less weight, the Hilltoppers' significant improvement has come into the light.
* SP+ is presented in an adjusted points per game format.
New Mexico State Aggies: up 5.9 points
NMSU has covered six of the last seven games, and Aggies games have hit the over in five of six. Since scoring a combined 13 points on UTEP and San Diego State to start the year, they've averaged over 30 per game. It hasn't made them successful (they're 1-7), but it has made them a safe bet of late.
Florida State Seminoles: up 5.8 points
The Noles have won three straight after starting 0-4, and after averaging 185 rushing yards per game (4.9 per carry) over their first three games, they've averaged 264 (6.6) since. They're controlling the ball more -- which has helped the defense immensely -- and they've surged from 73rd to 32nd in SP+ (19th on offense).
Colorado State Rams: up 5.5 points
Despite their horrid end-game execution against Utah State, the Rams have improved dramatically. The defense has allowed just 4.0 yards per play and 16.8 points per game since the season opener, and over the last three games the offense jumped from 4.7 yards per play to 6.0 and from 20 points per game to 30.7.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: up 5.1 points
The Yellow Jackets struggled early with starting quarterback Jeff Sims out, but since his return, Sims has averaged 267 passing yards and 71 rushing yards per game since and Tech has averaged 34.3 points per game and 6.8 yards per play. Combined with a sputtering defense, Tech games have comfortably hit the over in two of the last three weeks.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons: up 5.1 points
Every week, the Wake offense gets better and the defense gets worse. The unbeaten Demon Deacons are up to 13th in offensive SP+ and down to 76th on defense; they've covered just once in three games, but all three have zoomed past the over. Saturday's 70-56 win over Army was just obnoxious in all ways good and bad.
Largest offensive regression
UCLA Bruins: down 5.9 points
A bad defense has distracted us from the fact that the offense has shifted down a gear, too. The Bruins have gone from averaging 38.5 points per game and 6.5 yards per play over their first four games to 28.0 and 5.2, respectively, over their last four. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has struggled with a couple of different injuries, and the Bruins have become a bit more one-dimensional, to negative effect.
UCF Knights: down 5.2 points
This one's pretty easy to explain. The Knights averaged 44.7 points per game and 7.1 yards per play before starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel got hurt and have averaged 23.8 and 5.1, respectively, since. SP+ isn't programmed to adjust for injuries and therefore whiffed on the Knights' first three games after his injury.
Boston College Eagles: down 4.8 points
Injuries have defined BC's season. Quarterback Phil Jurkovec went out in the second game, receiver Zay Flowers has been in and out of the lineup, and former No. 1 WR Kobay White has just one catch all year. It has added up. Since ACC play started, the Eagles have averaged just 11.3 points per game and 4.3 yards per play.
Penn State Nittany Lions: down 4.4 points
Another one driven by a QB injury. Penn State was averaging 6.2 yards per play despite a tough early schedule, but Sean Clifford went down early in the loss to Iowa and was clearly a shadow of his former self Saturday against Illinois. With no run game to lean on, the Nittany Lions have plummeted to 3.6 yards per play in their last two games.
Largest defensive improvement
Wyoming Cowboys: down 6.8 points (in this case, down is good)
Wyoming ranks a dreadful 110th in offensive SP+, but the defense is up to 18th. The increasingly decrepit attack means the Cowboys have lost three straight and failed to cover in four straight; the stellar defense means the under has hit for four straight weeks.
UTEP Miners: down 5.0 points
The 6-1 Miners have taken advantage of a dreadful schedule -- they haven't beaten a team ranked higher than 107th in SP+ yet. Still, the defense has been lights out, allowing 12.5 points per game and 4.2 yards per play during a four-game winning streak. That has driven a run of four straight covers (and three unders in four games).
Colorado State: down 4.8 points
As mentioned above, the Rams' defense was gaining steam even before the offense.
UNLV Rebels: down 4.6 points
Are you catching on to a MWC-themed trend? MWC teams have averaged just 21.7 points per game over the last two weeks, hitting the under 75% of the time. The anti-points trend has roped in even the UNLV defense, which has improved from dreadful to merely poor of late.
Largest defensive regression
Utah Utes: up 6.2 points
The Utes lost two strong starters (corner JaTravis Broughton and tackle Viane Moala) to season-ending injuries in September, and of 15 players averaging at least two tackles per game, seven have missed at least one game. A typically strong defense has allowed 6.7 yards per play over the last three games and has sunk to 36th in defensive SP+. Three straight games have hit the over.
Oklahoma Sooners: up 5.7 points
With corner Woodi Washington and safety Delarrin Turner-Yell missing multiple games and other regulars missing at least one, the OU secondary has been a wreck. After allowing a 122.6 passer rating in their first four games, the Sooners have allowed a 186.0 rating since. They even allowed Kansas to go 17-for-23 for 246 yards on Saturday. Kansas! If the secondary can heal up, the Sooners could be much better a month or so from now.
TCU Horned Frogs: up 4.2 points
The Horned Frogs are one of the teams I was most wrong about this year, and defense is the reason. They've allowed at least 414 yards and 29 points in every game against FBS competition, and they've allowed at least 6.9 yards per play in five of six. Every week that preseason projections carry less weight, the Frogs sink further. They're now 73rd in defensive SP+.
Largest overall improvement
Colorado State: up 10.3 points
The Rams are benefiting from a bar that got set awfully low after season-opening losses to South Dakota State and Vanderbilt, but they've been undeniably strong over the last few weeks, which makes their late-game disaster against Utah State even more frustrating. They should be on a three-game winning streak.
Florida State: up 9.5 points
Indeed, the FSU defense has improved by 3.5 points (they're up to 53rd in defensive SP+) to go with the offense's surge. Their schedule is brutal down the stretch -- four top-30 teams in five games -- but they're undeniably more competitive now than in mid-September.
Vanderbilt Commodores: up 9.3 points
This speaks to how far the Commodores had fallen. They were 125th in SP+ after their narrow win over lowly UConn, so "improving" to 114th is noteworthy, even if they're still quite bad.
UNLV: up 7.9 points
The Rebels remain winless and are projected underdogs in each remaining game, but four straight one-score losses speaks to how close they're coming to ending this losing streak.
Ball State Cardinals: up 7.7 points
After three straight easy covers, the Cardinals' progress came to a screeching halt with a frustrating 24-17 loss to Miami (Ohio) on Saturday.
Louisville Cardinals: up 7.7 points
FSU's leap has somewhat overshadowed Louisville's, but the Cardinals have covered in four of the last five games (and nearly did in the other, too) and have risen from 69th to 35th in SP+.
New Mexico State: up 7.6 points
The Aggies aren't good, but they're more competitive than preseason projections suggested they would be.
Largest overall regression
UCLA: down 9.9 points
The Bruins charged out of the gates, mowing down LSU in Week 1 and starting 3-1. They're still 5-3 and are almost guaranteed to bowl for the first time since 2017, but the level of play has regressed significantly.
Appalachian State Mountaineers: down 6.2 points
Before Wednesday's rousing win over Coastal Carolina, the Mountaineers had failed to cover in three of four games and had sunk from 29th to 64th in SP+. Was the upset of the Chants the start of a rebound?
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: down 5.0 points
The Chants' offense actually looked mortal for the first time against Appalachian State, which also exposed a defense that gives up far too many big plays. A No. 38 ranking in SP+ is never going to be shameful for Coastal, but it's quite a drop from ranking 19th four weeks ago.
UCF: down 5.0 points
The defense has held steady, but the offensive drop has been steep for the 4-3 Knights.
Washington Huskies: down 4.8 points
The defense has regressed from 28th in defensive SP+ four weeks ago to 48th today. That their games have still hit the under three straight times (and six of seven overall) only speaks to how uninspiring their offense remains.
Troy Trojans: down 4.7 points
SP+ saw something in the Trojans, projecting them 65th to begin the season. They remained 65th after a 2-1 start but have since fallen to 90th. They've failed to cover for four straight games and have seen their ratings slide by about 2.4 points on both sides of the ball.
Arizona State Sun Devils: down 4.5 points
In a conference loaded with underachievers, the Sun Devils are still 5-2 and have covered three of the last four games. They're the only Pac-12 team in the SP+ top 25, but their 35-21 loss to Utah on October 16 undid a lot of the gains they had achieved.