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College Football Playoff race: Lackluster wins could cost Cincinnati and Oklahoma in the end

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Oklahoma Sooners vs. Kansas Jayhawks: Full Highlights (1:52)

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Kansas Jayhawks: Full Highlights (1:52)

For eight seasons, phrases like "style points" and "eye test" have become part of the unofficial College Football Playoff dictionary -- at least outside of the selection committee meeting room. The committee members all pay attention to the flow of games and quality of opponents, so if a team struggles to beat a team it should take care of easily -- let's just go ahead and throw 1-6 Kansas in here -- it's part of the conversation.

Everyone in that room, though, will insist they aren't asking teams to run up the score each week to prove a point.

"The committee does not incent margin of victory," CFP executive director Bill Hancock told ESPN on Saturday night, not referring to any specific team. "Of course, the committee reviews each team's results thoroughly and is aware of what happens in every game. That includes answering the question, 'Did either team dominate the game?'"

In Week 8, Oklahoma did not. Oregon did not. Cincinnati did not. Ohio State most certainly did.

The reality is, it's extremely difficult to win every week and look good in the process -- especially with injuries and inexperience -- and the Bearcats at least have looked the part more often than not. It does beg the question, though: Who besides Georgia truly is passing the eye test every week? And ultimately, how much will it really matter?

Maybe not as much as usual this fall.

We've seen a flawed Oklahoma team in the top four before. We could see it again.

No. 3 Oklahoma trailed by double digits twice on Saturday before beating unranked Kansas -- a Jayhawks team that is now 1-6 and closed as a 38.5-point underdog at Caesars Sportsbook.

Yes, that Kansas.

Following Oklahoma State's loss to Iowa State, the Sooners are the only undefeated team left in the Big 12, but they have spent more time just trying to win this fall than they have playing like a top-four team.

That doesn't mean they won't be one. We've seen OU sneak into the top four by default before -- in 2019 after Utah lost to Oregon in the Pac-12 conference championship, leaving the committee little choice but to promote the Sooners into the No. 4 spot when it mattered the most. If they finish as an undefeated or one-loss Big 12 champion again, prepare for at least the possibility of a rerun.

If Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC championship game and the Tide have two losses, the top four would almost certainly include Georgia and the Big Ten champion.

Then what?

Undefeated Cincinnati would make a strong case and likely be in. There's still one spot left. ACC champ? Meh. Two-loss Alabama? Tough for the committee to justify, but not impossible if it's a close game -- especially if there continues to be chaos in the other Power 5 conferences. One-loss Oregon? The win against Ohio State still counts, but is it enough to compensate for a bad loss to Stanford?

Beyond Georgia, everyone has flaws, but somebody has to join the Bulldogs. The discussion starts with the Power 5 conference champions and Cincinnati if the Bearcats finish undefeated. If Alabama wins, and the SEC has two teams in along with the Big Ten champion, the fourth spot is still a debate.

What if Cincinnati and Oklahoma are both undefeated conference champions?

The Bearcats have looked like a more complete team than Oklahoma to this point, and while history says otherwise, it wouldn't be surprising this fall to see the selection committee reward them for it. How the committee ranks OU and Cincinnati on Nov. 2 in what will be the first of six rankings will be very telling.

Of course, if Oklahoma continues its inconsistency, the committee could be considering one-loss Oklahoma State as the Big 12 champion instead.

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Cincinnati holds off Navy to remain undefeated

The Bearcats take home a win in Annapolis at 27-20.

Cincinnati finally has to gut one out -- and it does.

Cincinnati entered the weekend having scored at least 50 points in back-to-back games, but found itself struggling on the road Saturday against what's now a 1-6 Navy team.

Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell said he knew a moment like this was inevitable.

"We haven't been challenged down the stretch to end the game like that," he said. "We knew it was going to have to be done at some point in time. Sometimes several times. This was a challenge for us. I knew at halftime. I told the guys, we would find out a lot about ourselves after the next 30 minutes or so about how willing are we to commit to each other and do whatever it takes to win the football game. We had to do everything in our power to win a football game. I am proud of our guys for doing that."

Cincinnati probably has to stay undefeated to keep its playoff hopes alive, but Saturday was a reminder of how difficult that is. The Bearcats had their bye week prior to the Oct. 2 Notre Dame win, so they have to win 10 straight games, including the AAC championship, without a break.

That's something the selection committee will consider -- and probably lend more credence to than any "style points," though Cincinnati could certainly bolster its case by dominating the other unranked opponents on its schedule, especially at home. There's a difference between eking out a win in Annapolis against the triple option and winning a squeaker at home in November against an unranked Tulsa team.

Fickell said his players often look at him "out of the side of their eyes" to see how he's going to react. Odds are his expectations for them are higher than those of the selection committee.

"I am selfish at times and greedy at times," he said. "We all want it to look and be a little bit better. It was hard. Going on the road, especially against the unique triple option. They played their butts off. I give them a lot of credit. I told them I was proud of them to have to go through a battle like this. As long as we can stay humble and hungry and push ourselves forward, and no matter what, stay together. ... This team has the makings of something special."

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Illinois pulls off wild upset of No. 7 Penn State in 9 OTs

Penn State's CFP hopes are effectively shattered as Illinois prevails in a dramatic nine-overtime upset.

Big Ten field narrows again with Penn State loss

It was only a matter of time before the Big Ten East started to sort itself out, as Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan have all been trying to emerge as the top team in the league, but few if any expected Illinois and Iowa from the West Division to play such an integral role.

Penn State has played itself out of the playoff after back-to-back losses to Iowa and Illinois, further narrowing the Big Ten's place in the CFP picture. Meanwhile, Ohio State continues to leave no doubt it is the better team against unranked, unheralded competition. That's what the committee looks for, though it will balance that with the fact the Buckeyes' past five wins came against teams with a combined record of 14-22.

The Buckeyes have reeled off five straight wins since their Sept. 11 loss to Oregon, and have scored at least 41 points in each of those games. Their home game Saturday against Penn State has lost some of its luster, shifting the attention to East Lansing, where undefeated Michigan State will host Michigan in a matchup between two top-10 teams in the same division.

Both of those teams still have to face the Buckeyes in late November.

Because of the depth of the East Division, the Big Ten remains in one of the best playoff positions of the Power 5 conferences -- in spite of Penn State's second stumble.

Oregon keeps Pac-12's hopes alive with win at UCLA

Oregon is the only one-loss team left in the Pac-12, and each week, it seems like that distinction is a play or an injury away from disappearing.

And yet the Ducks keep finding a way to win, in spite of it all.

UCLA quickly jumped out to a 14-0 lead on Saturday before Oregon scored on five of its next six drives. It wasn't until an interception in the final minute of the game, though, that the Ducks could exhale.

"We got punched in the mouth, honestly, and we woke up," Oregon safety Verone McKinley III said. "We played four full quarters. We were like, 'We're not going to go out like that again.' We make it a little difficult sometimes, but we played four quarters and came out with the victory."

It was the second straight win that came down to the wire for Oregon, as the Ducks narrowly beat Cal 24-17 on a Friday night. While it hasn't always looked pretty, Oregon is still in contention for a playoff spot, though the CFP rankings might not reflect it right away. The Ducks' Sept. 11 win at Ohio State is still one of the best in the country, and the Buckeyes are making their own case for a top-four finish.

If Oregon finishes as a one-loss Pac-12 champion, it will be considered by the selection committee for a top-four spot, depending on how the other Power 5 races play out, and how Cincinnati fares.

Bottom line: Even though Oregon has a bad loss to Stanford and is winning by narrow margins, the Ducks are still in the mix. It's a weekly pressure coach Mario Cristobal said his team no longer thinks about.

"Honestly, I think we're over that stuff," he said. "I'm completely being 100 percent transparent and honest. Our guys have a good grasp on knowing it's about today. It's about the next item on the agenda. It's about the play that they're playing. We realize that [process] works for us. When we get away from that process we create our own issues. That's a big moment when, as a team, you can recognize that."