Intro by Doug Kezirian
No. 3 Iowa will host No. 4 Penn State as a two-point favorite in a game that has not seen much line movement from the opening line this summer, given both teams are undefeated and have climbed the rankings.
Chris Andrews, South Point casino sportsbook director, posted an advanced line for various marquee games on May 28, and he opened Iowa -1.
"I had Iowa a little underrated. They've also been the beneficiary of a lot of turnovers. I've raised Penn State incrementally, but I have a lot of questions with [Sean] Clifford at quarterback," Andrews said.
Additionally, Andrews does not expect much line movement during the final stretch.
"Penn State is not the same on the road," he said. "I think the public will be on Iowa, but if it gets to -3, the sharps guys will come in and take three."
The Hawkeyes have a knack for delivering in these situations, covering eight of their past nine against AP top-five teams and covering five straight against ranked teams. However, it's rare to see Iowa favored in these high-profile matchups. The Hawkeyes may embrace the underdog role, but they are favored on Saturday.
Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (13-14 overall, 1-3 last week), Bill Connelly (14-11, 3-2), Tyler Fulghum (4-4, 1-2), Joe Fortenbaugh (10-10, 1-3) and David M. Hale (7-6, 3-0) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 6 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Saturday's best bets
No. 11 Michigan State Spartans (-5, 50) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, noon ET
Fortenbaugh: I think too many people still view Michigan State as the defensive-minded, explosion-lacking football team of the Mark Dantonio era, but those days are long gone. Under second-year boss Mel Tucker, Sparty has been easy on the eyes this season. Michigan State contests are averaging 58.8 points per game in 2021 and the Spartans themselves are averaging a lofty 36.8 points per matchup (17th in NCAA). I believe this total is somewhat suppressed based on those aforementioned points, as well as the fact that Rutgers has hung a grand total of just 26 points over the last two weeks. But take note of the opposition, as the Scarlet Knights ran into Michigan and Ohio State in back-to-back weeks. There's a reason why this total opened 47.5 and was quickly bet up to 50.
Pick: Over 50
No. 13 Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 17 Ole Miss Rebels (-5.5, 66.5), 12p.m. ET
Kezirian: This is an interesting matchup of two schools that just got smoked by the nation's two best teams and it was a bitter dose of reality for each. They now know where they stand and how much farther they need to go. While I like both coaches and squads, I trust Ole Miss more to bounce back because I think the offense is special. Yes, Bama shut the Rebels out in the first half but Ole Miss made the second half respectable. I still believe QB Matt Corral is for real and that they will be ready to rock at home. Arkansas is a solid team but I am just not sold on their offense. Remember, the Razorbacks got a lot of credit for upsets over Texas and Texas A&M but we have since learned about their mediocrity. The Ole Miss defense is better than people realize and the offense under Lane Kiffin is legit. Arkansas will not be able to hang.
Pick: Ole Miss -5.5
Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 20 Florida Gators (-38, 60), noon ET
Fulghum: The Gators return to The Swamp seething from a tough loss to Kentucky and looking for some easy prey to demolish. Well, here comes Vandy. The Commodores are 1-4 ATS this season and the lone SEC game they played this season was a 62-0 shellacking at the hands of Georgia. I expect the Gators to run it up on a far weaker opponent to get the bad taste of last week's game out of their mouth.
Pick: Florida -38
South Carolina Gamecocks at Tennessee Volunteers (-10.5, 56.5), noon ET on ESPN2
Connelly: This could absolutely be an overreaction to Tennessee's overwhelming win at Missouri last week, and it could be a walk right into the "South Carolina covers and the under wins easily" trap that the Gamecocks seem good at setting this season. But SP+ has liked the Vols a decent amount all season and, despite not taking tempo into account, projects a 15-point Tennessee win.
Plus, I like the matchups here; South Carolina's pass defense is strong, but the motor for the Vols' offensive success (when said offensive success occurs) is a strong run game, and the Gamecock defense is merely average up front. Combine that with the fact that S.C. might not be able to run the ball well at all, and you've got a recipe for a solid two-TD win.
Pick: Tennessee -10.5
Fortenbaugh: Any total less than 60 points is going to catch my attention when it comes to Tennessee because the Volunteers are built for overs. Josh Heupel's squad currently ranks 15th in the country in scoring (37.0 PPG), 27th in yards per play (6.3) and 16th in plays per game (78). Translation: the Vols like to move fast and score in bunches. So far this season, South Carolina has beaten the teams they were expected to beat and lost to the teams they were expected to lose to. Against this Tennessee defense, the Gamecocks should be able to contribute their share of the scoring necessary to put this game over.
Pick: Over 56
No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (-15.5, 46.5) at No. 18 Auburn Tigers, 3:30 p.m. ET
Kezirian: Everything about this line screams to avoid Georgia. It's not often you can get away laying double digits in a road conference game against a top-20 team. But as we have seen, there is a giant dropoff from Alabama and Georgia to the rest of college football. The Bulldogs defense is an absolute force and has yet to allow more than 13 points in any game this season. They are coming off a shutout over a ranked Arkansas squad, covering a similar spread.
Auburn picked up a monster win over LSU in a Death Valley night game last weekend. The Tigers certainly outplayed LSU in the second half but LSU's lack of offensive execution is what allowed Auburn to rally. Give the Tigers defense credit but LSU QB Max Johnson also missed open receivers that could have positioned them to ice the game. Nonetheless, Auburn was sharper down the stretch and Bo Nix orchestrated some miraculous fourth down conversions. However, I highly doubt his style will fly against the Dawgs. I like Auburn's defense and they will have a tough test against a Georgia offense that wants to run the ball a lot. But ultimately, I think Georgia's defense is just too dominant and this game gets away from Auburn.
Pick: Georgia -15.5
Boise State Broncos at No. 10 BYU Cougars (-5, 56.5), 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Fortenbaugh: Two reasons for this wager: Boise State is overvalued and BYU is undervalued. Not exactly neurosurgery, is it? Let's start with the Broncos, who have been struggling big time on offense ever since head coach Bryan Harsin departed for Auburn. Boise State ranks 80th in the country in yards per play (5.2) and an astounding 123rd in yards per rushing attempt (2.4). That's going to be problematic against a BYU freight train that has an extra day to get ready for this game, not to mention marquee wins over Utah and Arizona State so far this season. Be advised that the Cougars are 10-4 ATS over their last 14 games against Mountain West opposition and 5-1 ATS in their last six showdowns with Boise State.
Pick: BYU -5
Wisconsin Badgers (-10, 42.5) at Illinois Fighting Illini, 3:30 p.m. ET
Hale: This is a line set by narrative over substance, and I love lines like that. Think first of the Wisconsin offense. It's awful, right? Indeed, the Badgers rank 117th nationally in scoring offense. But dig deeper. Three of the four games Wisconsin has played were against top-15 teams. Despite the lack of scoring, the underlying metrics are above average, too -- 39th in offensive SP+, for example.
Meanwhile, Illinois has held three straight opponents to 20 points or less, which might seem impressive enough. But for the season, the Illini rank 85th in defensive efficiency and 100th in defensive SP+. Despite the 1-3 record, FPI still has Wisconsin as the No. 39 team in the country, while Illinois is 80th. Add in Wisconsin's 16-6 mark against the spread as a road favorite since 2015, and we've got a recipe for an easy win.
Pick: Wisconsin -10
Connelly: OK, whew, Hale gave me cover on this one. SP+'s undying love of Wisconsin has made me uncomfortable -- it loves the Badgers' defense so much that it's evidently willing to overlook a bunch of offensive crimes they have committed of late -- but ... come on. Even if you don't believe the SP+ projection of Wisconsin 34-14, this line should still be in the UW -13 or UW -14 range, right? Because the UW defense is the only unit guaranteed to show up?
Pick: Wisconsin -10
Ball State Cardinals at Western Michigan Broncos (-11, 57.5), 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU
Connelly: I'm doubling down on Ball State doubt! The Cardinals confounded one of my best bets last week by not only beating Army but doing so strangely easily. It was BSU's first genuinely strong performance of the season and gave me a moment's pause with this one. But WMU has been one of the more consistently strong performers in the country so far, beating the spread 75% of the time and overachieving both the spread and SP+ projections by about a touchdown per game. (And for bonus points, they're doing this despite maybe the worst special teams unit in the country!)
SP+ projects a 14.4-point advantage for WMU -- not a dramatic departure from the spread, but I like the matchup here as well. The Broncos' pass defense is excellent and should combat BSU's quick-passing game well. WMU isn't great against the run, but BSU can't run. And while BSU's defense has shown well in two straight games, this WMU attack stresses you greatly. WMU by two TDs sounds right to me.
Pick: WMU -11
Connecticut Huskies (-3.5, 57) at UMass Minutemen, 3:30 p.m. ET
Kezirian: This is as gross of a game as you will see all season. Chris Berman will never reference the hallowed grounds of McGuirk Alumni Stadium, and College GameDay wasn't considering this battle of winless teams with a combined 11 losses. However, as we all know, all tickets cash the same. And I think the Huskies deserve some credit for their recent performances, now that they have removed the Randy Edsall stench. UConn has covered three straight games and nearly pulled off upsets over Wyoming and Vanderbilt. The Huskies look competent with an offense that has its moments. Meanwhile, UMass has lost all five games by double digits and does not seem to have figured out much. An afternoon game that involves a pretty short bus ride does not deter me from laying points on the road with a winless team. The Huskies have shown they can taste victory, and this is their last shot against an FBS team.
Pick: UConn -3.5
No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 3 Iowa Hawkeyes (-1.5, 41), 4p.m. ET
Kezirian: At some point, we just have to concede that Iowa is a polished and disciplined club that capitalizes on your mistakes. That's why they lead the nation in takeaways per game and turnover differential per game. They are extremely well-coached by the nation's longest tenured coach in Kirk Ferentz and they impose their will, forcing you to play the game on their terms. Penn State has also been solid and answered the call at Wisconsin and home against Auburn. I just think the Nittany Lions have escaped with some sloppy play and that won't fly against the Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium.
Pick: Iowa -1.5
East Carolina Pirates at UCF Knights (-10, 67.5), 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Connelly: This spread feels like an overreaction in both directions. And honestly, said overreaction has some basis. ECU is coming off one of its best performances in quite a while, a 52-29 home trouncing of Tulane. UCF is coming off of one of its worst performances in a long while, a 34-30 loss to a previously winless Navy. These are both stark results. But here's a reminder that ECU had barely beaten Charleston Southern the week before Tulane came to town.
Now, picking a team with a backup quarterback as a best bet is risky. With Dillon Gabriel out, Mikey Keene made his first start, and UCF suffered a major upset. Bad, right? But Keene was perfectly fine -- 16-for-26, 187 yards, two touchdowns and a pick -- and the major culprit for the loss was a UCF defense that couldn't get Navy off the field. SP+ projects a 16.5-point UCF win, and even if you adjust three to four points for Dillon Gabriel's absence, that still offers a decent cushion with a 10-point spread.
Pick: UCF -10
Wyoming Cowboys at Air Force Falcons (-6, 47), 7 p.m. ET
Hale: Air Force has been one of my favorite betting teams this year. The Falcons are among the best Group of 5 offenses, ranking 18th nationally in EPA per snap. Meanwhile, the defense has been exceptional at shutting down big plays and boasts a masterful 65.6% successful play rate, ninth best nationally. Their four wins this season have all come by at least 20, and only a late collapse against Utah State (a game they led by 11 in the third quarter) has blemished the record.
Meanwhile, Wyoming gets the benefit of the doubt for its 4-0 record, but three of those wins have come by a TD or less, including a three-point win vs. FCS Montana State and a two-point victory against (ugh) UConn. I'm riding with Air Force most weeks, and this one is a particularly appealing spread I got it at -4.5 earlier in the week).
Pick: Air Force -4.5
No. 14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-1, 47) at Virginia Tech Hokies, 7:30 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: This is a situational play for me. The Hokies are off a bye and have had two weeks to prepare for this showdown, which will take place under the lights at a packed and raucous Lane Stadium. For Notre Dame, this is yet another marquee, high-profile game ... only this time, it's coming off a loss with dreams of an undefeated campaign dashed by the Cincinnati Bearcats last Saturday. Take note that the Hokies are 5-1 ATS over their last six games as a home underdog, while Notre Dame has covered the number in just two of five contests this season.
Pick: Virginia Tech +1
Fulghum: The Hokies have been an under machine all season. They're 4-0 to the under and their games are coming under that total by an average of 15.9 PPG. If Notre Dame had a more dynamic offense, I wouldn't feel quite as comfortable here, but Tech is a live home 'dog, and usually teams under that circumstance do so in a tight, low-scoring game where the raucous home crowd makes it difficult for the opposing offense to operate at maximum efficiency.
Pick: Under 47
New Mexico State Aggies at Nevada Wolf Pack (-31, 62.5), 10:30 p.m. ET
Connelly: Two reasons for picking this one:
1. NMSU has actually been a smidge better (less awful?) than expected this year. The Aggies have covered in four of six games (tied for 30th in FBS) and by an average of 4.6 points (33rd). SP+ thought they would be truly horrendous this year, and they've overachieved those projections by an average of 8.2 points. It's adjusted for their semi-competence and only projects them to lose by 27.4 to Nevada.
2. Part of the reason the line is this high is that Nevada scored a big 41-31 road win over Boise State last week. But it was a game defined by a dramatic Nevada field position advantage (+18 yards per drive) and late Boise turnovers (Nevada was +3). Those aren't the most sustainable factors in the world. Nevada's obviously the better team here, but 31 points is a bit much.
Pick: NMSU +31
Friday's best bets
Temple Owls at No. 5 Cincinnati Bearcats (-29, 54), 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
Hale: Temple's upset win last week likely says more about Memphis than it does about the Owls, but it was still the program's best passing performance in nearly 20 years, and D'Wan Mathis appears to be hitting his stride at QB. It's a team that has made genuine strides since the opening week blowout against Rutgers.
On the flip side, Cincinnati is coming off a program-defining win at Notre Dame, and I'm betting on a massive hangover. The Notre Dame game was the focus of the Bearcats' season from Day 1 -- the chance to prove themselves on the big stage. This week's stage is effectively a converted janitor's closet. Luke Fickell is one of the best coaches in the country, but if he has his team motivated enough to win by 29 the week after beating the Irish, well, we might as well hand him the coach of the year trophy now.
Pick: Temple +29
Kezirian: As David indicated, this has all the makings of a massive Cincinnati hangover. The Bearcats earned the much-needed feather in their cap by beating Notre Dame and now here comes lowly Temple with two losses by a combined 72 points. Now, the Owls are also off a nice upset win over Memphis but this is still a poor team. I don't trust Temple for four quarters but I will back them in the first half with a key number of 17 and hopefully a sluggish Cincy start. Additionally, the Bearcats host UCF next week so it is logical to assume an unfocused group as a huge favorite.
Pick: Temple +17 (1st half)