Week 5 was packed with opportunities for undefeated teams to further assert themselves in their respective conference races, including four games between two undefeated top-25 opponents, narrowing the pool of serious contenders in the College Football Playoff race.
Hello, Cincinnati. Farewell, Arkansas. Not even close, Ole Miss. The East Coast was awake for that implosion, Oregon.
No, one-loss teams aren't eliminated from consideration, but they're certainly playing from behind. Here's how it all changed the playoff picture with one month until the first ranking is revealed on Nov. 2.
Forget expansion, Alabama and Georgia are making this a two-team race
Alabama and Georgia can both make a case for No. 1. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, they are more than a touchdown better than any other FBS team. Nobody in the ACC comes close. Oklahoma, the highest-ranked team in the Big 12, is squeaking by unranked teams like West Virginia and Kansas State. With Oregon's loss to Stanford, there are no undefeated teams left in the Pac-12. The Big Ten has one-loss Ohio State, and four undefeated teams -- Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa and Penn State -- but none of them are playing at the level of Bama or Georgia.
ESPN's FPI projects both Alabama and Georgia to win their remaining regular-season games, and the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives both an 85% chance to reach the playoff -- well above the third-best chance, Oklahoma, at 41.2%.
The Tide and Bulldogs are on track to face each other in the SEC championship game, especially with Florida losing at Kentucky for the first time since Nov. 15, 1986, and Texas A&M losing again in the SEC's West division. If Alabama and Georgia can reach the conference title game unscathed, the selection committee could easily justify taking them both.
"We know how good we are," Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett said. "We know what it takes to be good every week. We know that we can lose to a team any week. It does not matter how good they are if we do not go out and execute. We do not really care what the rankings say. We just go out there and do our job. When we do it really well, and we execute, we are pretty good."
Alabama and Georgia both handled what could be their most difficult opponents of the season Saturday -- and they won with ease. Alabama's defense silenced its critics by holding Ole Miss to 291 total yards and 21 points, well below its nation-leading average of 635 yards and 53 points per game. Georgia's defense smothered Arkansas, limiting the Razorbacks to nine first downs and 162 total yards. Georgia has now recorded back-to-back shutouts in SEC games for the first time since 1980, its last national championship season.
The Pac-12 comes up empty -- again
Once again, with the nation awake and watching, the Pac-12's top playoff contender did a face-plant. With 1:51 left in the game, and unranked Stanford at its own 8-yard line, Oregon had a 99.9% chance to win, according to ESPN's Win Probability Model.
Instead of putting the game away, Kayvon Thibodeaux was ejected for a targeting penalty. And then there was a roughing the passer penalty. And then a defensive holding penalty -- in the end zone on what could have been the final play. In all, Oregon allowed Stanford to go 87 yards and send the game into overtime.
Clearly the Ducks sorely missed offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead, who was being evaluated for a non-COVID-related illness, but Oregon's 41-19 win against Arizona was closer than the score indicated. The Ducks still have their 35-28 win at Ohio State, which could be a critical component on Selection Day if the Buckeyes go on to win the Big Ten and Oregon wins the Pac-12. If it boils down to a debate between those two one-loss conference champs, the Ducks own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The problem is Oregon isn't playing like a contender lately. An undefeated Power 5 conference champion can overcome some warts on its own team, and it can mask deficiencies in its league.
There goes that.
With the loss, Oregon's chances at reaching the CFP sank to 4% -- 16th best in the country. Oregon falls back into the shadows of the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 -- and Cincinnati.
Cincinnati has a chance to make history
The Bearcats entered South Bend with an 11% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. That number jumped to 38% following the win -- the fourth-best chance in college football.
That's the computer.
The selection committee will look at Cincinnati's remaining strength of schedule, which is No. 72 in the country and doesn't currently include any ranked opponents. Historically, teams from the Group of 5 have faced a greater burden of proof in the committee meeting room, and strength of schedule (or lack thereof) has been the most consistent reason for their exclusion.
Cincinnati isn't just any Group of 5 team. It's a well-coached, proven commodity with a talented quarterback that just picked up a road win against a top-10 team. If the Bearcats can finish the season undefeated -- and ESPN's FPI projects they will win each of their remaining regular-season games -- and punctuate it with a win against a ranked opponent in the AAC title game, they'll be considered.
The problem isn't Cincinnati as much as it is Power 5 contenders with opportunities to compile stronger résumés. Alabama, Georgia, the Big Ten champion, Oklahoma -- and even Oregon -- have more difficult schedules. Cincinnati and Penn State now have a common opponent in Indiana, and the Nittany Lions put together a more complete performance against the Hoosiers on Saturday night.
Cincinnati's biggest problem, though, is arguably two SEC teams. It certainly helps the Bearcats that Oregon lost to unranked Stanford and doesn't look like a top-four team. Cincinnati should absolutely be ranked ahead of the Ducks right now, and has a case to be in the top four this week.
It's the finished product, though, that sways the committee, and one road win against Notre Dame might not mean as much then as it does now.
The luck of the Irish has run out
This is where Notre Dame's independence works against it, because the Irish don't have a conference championship game to help them compensate for a loss.
Cincinnati is the most difficult opponent on Notre Dame's schedule this season, and the Irish came up short on their home turf. While Notre Dame is still favored to win each of its remaining games, a road trip to Virginia Tech could be tricky, along with November trips to Virginia and Stanford.
Even with an 11-1 record, it's unlikely the selection committee would be wowed by any of those wins enough to unseat a Power 5 conference champion, or an unbeaten Cincinnati, for a top-four spot.
It's gut-check time in the Big Ten
The SEC might be the best conference, but for now, the Big Ten is the deepest. That's going to sort itself out quickly, with several key conference games featuring the remaining unbeaten teams.
Penn State and Iowa took important steps forward this week -- both making a case for inclusion in the top four -- and now they'll settle it on the field. Iowa hosts Penn State on Saturday, ensuring one of the unbeatens will suffer its first loss of the season. While it's not a divisional game, the winner will emerge as the Big Ten's front-runner for the CFP.
Penn State also travels to Ohio State this month, making October a season-defining stretch for the Nittany Lions.
Remember the Buckeyes?
Ohio State faded into the national shadows following its loss to Oregon, but the Buckeyes have quietly found an offensive groove against unheralded opponents over the past three weeks. It's exactly what Ohio State needed schedulewise to build some confidence and get back on track when nobody was looking.
According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Ohio State still has the best chance to win the Big Ten (37%), followed by Iowa (31%), Michigan (17%) and Penn State (8%). The Buckeyes are also still favored to win the Big Ten East (51%), followed by Michigan (26%).
Penn State and Iowa will take center stage Saturday -- but it could very well boil down to the Ohio State-Michigan game in November.