Even by the standards of the point spread, Kirby Smart's Georgia Bulldogs have been blowing opponents out of late.
Since outlasting Clemson, 7-3, in an opening-weekend rock fight, the Dawgs have been favored by 22.5 (vs. UAB), 31.5 (vs. South Carolina), 36 (at Vanderbilt) and 16.5 (vs. Arkansas), according to the Caesars closing line. They've won by 49, 27, 62 and 37, respectively. They've allowed 23 points in five games, and neither of the two touchdowns opponents have scored -- a fourth-quarter pick-six and a fourth-quarter touchdown pass against the backups -- have come against the first-string defense.
That Georgia has played two top-10 (at the time) teams in five games -- and has dealt with QB injury issues, starting backup Stetson Bennett twice already -- and is still outscoring teams by more than 36 points per game is jarring. The Dawgs' performance against the spread makes it even more stunning.
They are beating the spread by an average of 15.6 points per game thus far, second in the country and behind only Bowling Green (+16.0). No offense to Scot Loeffler's Falcons, but overachieving against the lowest possible bar -- BGSU came into the year having lost 15 of its last 17 games to FBS competition and was a 2.5-point underdog to FCS' Murray State in Week 3 -- is not quite the same type of achievement, even if they have played genuinely encouraging ball in 2021.
Indeed, Georgia is only the 12th team since 1979 to have overachieved by more than 15 points per game against an average spread of at least -20. Four of the other 11 teams to have pulled this off won the national title -- 36% of them, which almost perfectly matches Georgia's current national title odds of 39%, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor -- and three more came achingly close. Only one finished the year with more than two losses.
To say the least, this is good company. To get an idea of what fate might await the Dawgs (not to mention how they might fare against the spread moving forward), let's take a quick jaunt through history and examine the fates of each of these 11 teams.
1979 Alabama Crimson Tide
First five games: average spread -26.3, average scoring margin +42.0 (4-1 ATS)
The rest of the way: average spread -19.9, average scoring margin +15.1 (2-5 ATS)
Losses: none
After outscoring five unranked teams by a combined 219-9 through five games, Bear Bryant's Tide had to work a lot harder down the stretch. They beat No. 18 Tennessee by 10 on the third Saturday in October, then finished the year beating No. 14 Auburn 25-18 in Birmingham, then beating No. 6 Arkansas 24-9 in the Sugar Bowl. The sportsbooks caught up to the Tide, but no opponent did, and they won Bryant's sixth and final national title.
1983 Nebraska Cornhuskers
First five games: average spread -23.5 (one game didn't have a spread), average scoring margin +46.6 (4-0 ATS)
The rest of the way: average spread -30.5, average scoring margin +25.5 (3-5 ATS)
Losses: at No. 5 Miami (31-30)
Tom Osborne's Huskers began the season ranked No. 1, stomped No. 4 Penn State by 38 in the opener and went wire-to-wire through the regular season. Once again, the books adjusted to their dominant level of play, and the Huskers failed to cover in four of their last five games. But they plowed through a weakened Big 8 all the same and needed only to beat an upstart Miami team in the Orange Bowl to seal their GOAT. status. That, of course, didn't happen.
1991 Washington Huskies
First five games: average spread -25.4, average scoring margin +41.0 (4-1 ATS)
The rest of the way: average spread -24.9, average scoring margin +25.0 (3-4 ATS)
Losses: none
After a Rose Bowl win and top-five finish in 1990, Don James' Huskies began 1991 ranked fourth but still began 1991 wreaking an unexpected amount of havoc. They beat No. 9 Nebraska by 15 in Lincoln and covered by two-plus TDs in each of their first four games before failing to do so for five straight. After a narrow 24-17 win over No. 7 California, they picked up steam again, beating Oregon State and Washington State by a combined 114-27, then rolling over No. 4 Michigan in the Rose Bowl to secure a share of the national title.
1993 Florida State Seminoles
First five games: average spread -26.1, average scoring margin +42.8 (5-0 ATS)
The rest of the way: average spread -23.9, average scoring margin +24.1 (5-3 ATS)
Losses: at No. 2 Notre Dame (31-24)
It's hard to exceed expectations as the No. 1 team, but Bobby Bowden's Seminoles did just that in 1993, beating each of their first nine opponents -- including No. 3 Miami and three other ranked teams -- by at least 18 points and covering in their first eight games. But things got more difficult down the stretch. They lost at Notre Dame in a classic, and after holding off No. 7 Florida, they barely beat No. 2 Nebraska as a 16.5-point favorite in the Orange Bowl. It was just enough to score Bowden's first national title.
1996 Ohio State Buckeyes
First five games: average spread -20.6, average scoring margin +36.4 (4-1 ATS)
The rest of the way: average spread -22.8, average scoring margin +20.3 (4-3 ATS)
Losses: vs. No. 21 Michigan (13-9)
Ranked 10th to start the season, John Cooper's Buckeyes beat No. 5 Notre Dame and No. 4 Penn State by a combined 67-23 early in the year to vault into the top two. Their level of play barely faltered until mid-November. But they struggled to put away 2-7 Indiana the week before rival Michigan came to town, then they lost for the third time in four years to the Wolverines. Beating Arizona State in a classic Rose Bowl was solid consolation, but they finished No. 2.
2010 Oregon Ducks
First five games: average spread -23.8, average scoring margin +41.6 (4-1 ATS)
The rest of the way: average spread -19.6, average scoring margin +20.0 (4-4 ATS)
Losses: vs. No. 1 Auburn (22-19)
The Ducks exploded out of the gate in Chip Kelly's second year in charge, winning their first three games by a combined 189-13 and rolling past No. 9 Stanford, 52-31. As usual, Vegas drew a bead on Oregon -- four of their last five games finished within one point of the spread -- but opponents fared worse. Only Cal stayed within 11 points until the BCS Championship, when Cam Newton's Auburn beat the Ducks with a last-second field goal.
2013 Florida State
First five games: average spread -25.2, average scoring margin +41.6 (4-1 ATS)
The rest of the way: average spread -28.2, average scoring margin +38.3 (7-2 ATS)
Losses: none
Coming off of the school's first top-10 finish in 12 seasons, Jimbo Fisher's Seminoles -- now with Jameis Winston at QB -- immediately made it clear that they had bigger ambitions in mind. Unlike most teams, Vegas never really caught up to how good this team was. They were 4-point favorites against No. 3 Clemson in their sixth game and won 51-14. (Shades of Georgia-Arkansas there.) They failed to cover only three times all year, and one was by a single point. Of course, they almost threw it all away with a slow start in the BCS Championship against Auburn, but a late rally secured the school's first title in 14 years.
2013 Baylor Bears
First five games: average spread -26.5, average scoring margin +45.4 (4-1 ATS)
The rest of the way: average spread -20.8, average scoring margin +18.5 (5-3 ATS)
Losses: at No. 11 Oklahoma State (49-17), vs. No. 15 UCF (52-42)
While FSU was leaving a path of destruction, Art Briles' Bears were doing something similar ... for a while. They averaged 61.2 points per game while covering in eight of their first nine games, and they were third in the AP poll when they headed to Stillwater on November 23. A smoking hot Cowboy team destroyed their national title dreams, however, and while they rebounded to finish 11-1, the Bears laid an egg in the Fiesta Bowl, spotting UCF a 14-0 lead and failing to catch up.
2016 Ohio State
First five games: average spread -24.6, average scoring margin +42.4 (4-1 ATS)
The rest of the way: average spread -16.0, average scoring margin +12.4 (2-6 ATS)
Losses: at Penn State (24-21), vs. No. 3 Clemson (31-0)
As with Baylor, a rousing start gave way to a disappointing finish for Urban Meyer's Buckeyes in 2016. They thumped No. 14 Oklahoma by 21 points to move to No. 2 in the polls and survived No. 8 Wisconsin in Madison, but they fell victim to a late blocked punt return score and lost to a charging Penn State in a White Out. Narrow wins over Northwestern, Michigan State and No. 3 Michigan helped them eke out a playoff bid, but PSU had stolen their mojo (and their Big Ten title), and Clemson humbled them in the CFP.
2019 Ohio State
First five games: average spread -23.3, average scoring margin +43.8 (4-1 ATS)
The rest of the way: average spread -22.3, average scoring margin +27.2 (5-4 ATS)
Losses: vs. No. 3 Clemson (29-23)
The 2019 season featured three nearly perfect teams -- LSU, Ohio State, Clemson -- and only two could make the finals. But don't let the Buckeyes' controversial semifinal loss to Clemson distract from how brilliant this team was. They covered in eight straight games, seven times by at least 16 points. They finished the regular season with three games against top-10 teams, were favored by an average of 15.3 points and won by an average of 17.7. Their steady brilliance actually allowed them to finish the year first in SP+ despite LSU's late-season magnificence.
2019 Wisconsin Badgers
First five games: average spread -21.4, average scoring margin +37.6 (4-1 ATS)
The rest of the way: average spread -6.7, average scoring margin +5.8 (4-5 ATS)
Losses: at Illinois (24-23), at No. 3 Ohio State (38-7), vs. No. 2 Ohio State (34-21), vs. No. 7 Oregon (28-27)
We'll call Wisconsin the four-loss exception that proves the rule. Paul Chryst's Badgers made this list by pummeling three bad teams early and playing magnificently in a 35-14 win over No. 11 Michigan. That brought them as high as sixth in the polls before an upset loss to Illinois sent them in the other direction. Granted, two of their losses were to the aforementioned (and brilliant) Ohio State, but as far as accomplishments go, this team didn't clear the same bar the others on the list did.
So what does this all tell us about 2021 Georgia? Perhaps little that we didn't already know; the Dawgs are absurdly talented and dominant, and they have a very good shot at a national title. But it also serves as a reminder that their fate isn't simply tied to what we assume are two games vs. Alabama -- the SEC Championship, plus a potential rematch in the College Football Playoff.
Nebraska fell as a solid favorite over Miami in 1983. Ohio State suffered a late upset in a hostile environment in 2016 and lost to an old rival on which it thought it had gotten the upper hand in 1996 -- and by the way, Georgia's Week 6 opponent, No. 18 Auburn, is one of its most hated rivals and is almost ranked the same as Michigan was that year.
"You're either elite or you're not." That's what Smart recently revealed he had been telling his team during fall camp. Thus far, there's no doubting Georgia's elite status. Is this the year the Dawgs maintain that status all the way to the finish line?