Every Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (0-4 last week, 10-18 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (3-3, 22-34), Anita Marks (2-6, 33-53-1), Preston Johnson (0-1, 11-16), Mike Clay (0-1, 11-9) and Tyler Fulghum (2-4, 26-34-1), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (2-1, 19-10), Seth Walder (4-3, 33-16) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (2-4, 21-32-1) of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from Sunday's slate.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change. (The Lions-Panthers game is not on the board as of this posting.)
8:20 p.m. ET game
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 56.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Fortenbaugh: You think the Chiefs have forgotten about that 40-32 upset the Raiders sprung in Kansas City back on Oct. 11? Andy Reid sure hasn't -- he told the media a story this past week about the Raiders taking a victory lap around Arrowhead Stadium in their team buses following that game. Said Reid, "They won the game, so they can do anything they want to do. That's not our style." If Reid went out of his way to mention that bus story, I've got no problem going out of my way to back him in this spot. The Chiefs are clearly using that as motivation for this week's rematch.
Pick: Chiefs -6.5
1 p.m. ET games
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-5, 51.5)
Schatz: Would it surprise you to learn the past four New Orleans games have gone under this week's total of 51.5?
Pick: Under 51.5
Fortenbaugh: The Saints laying five points against division-rival Atlanta, who is also coming off a bye week, makes this opportunity appealing. New Orleans has been excellent defending the run in 2020, but it's the passing game that has stymied its defense, and I don't expect Matt Ryan and company to pound the rock Sunday.
Pick: Falcons +5
Walder: Hayden Hurst's average depth of target is 8.6 yards, eighth-most among tight ends with at least 125 routes run. So what's the issue? Those targets have been disproportionately deep for the actual routes he has run. Hurst's depth 1, 2, 3 and 4 seconds into after the snap when running routes ranks between 24th and 29th out of the 34 tight ends in that group. I'm betting we can learn more about a receiver's future depth of target from all of his routes, rather than just the subset he's targeted on. And if that's right, this is high line for a tight end like Hurst.
Pick: Hurst longest reception under 17.5 yards (-120)
Marks: Adam Shefter is reporting that Taysom Hill will get the start for the Saints this week against Atlanta. Dianna Russini is reporting that Jameis Winston will not be a part of any offenses packages. Buckle up! Sean Peyton has been preparing for a Taysom Hill offense scheme for over a year now, and will unleash it Sunday against the Falcons. Atlanta's defense has no idea what to expect, but I do expect Hill to score, and you can get that at +150 right now.
Pick: Taysom Hill anytime TD (+150)
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (-3.5, 47)
Fortenbaugh: Go a bit deeper into the numbers and you find Philadelphia's defense is permitting an average of just 79.2 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, ninth in the NFL. If the Birds can somewhat limit Nick Chubb and a Cleveland rushing attack that ranks fourth in the league (159 yards per game), they'll shift the pressure to quarterback Baker Mayfield, who ranks 29th in completion percentage at 61.3 (behind Nick Foles and Daniel Jones) and 24th in quarterback rating at 90.0 (behind Philip Rivers and Gardner Minshew). That's exactly how Philly wants this game to be played and, believe it or not, they can make it happen.
Pick: Eagles +3.5
Walder: Travis Fulgham had a disappointing Week 10, but I'm not going to let that recent event pull me away from his larger body of work. Fulgham has actually outperformed his expected catch rate; he has 30 receptions this season on 49 targets, and given the throws he has received, we'd expect an average receiver to have made only about 27 of those receptions, per NFL Next Gen Stats data. Even if we expect his catch ability to be average going forward, if he kept his same rate of opportunity he'd nab 48 completed air yards per game -- which should be plenty to hit this over on average.
Pick: Fulgham over 52.5 receiving yards (-115)
Johnson: I don't get the Eagles anymore, but here I am betting on them again. They were as healthy as they've been in a season and a half, coming out of a bye week to face a Giants team that on paper is inferior. I bet Philly -3 and the market saw this number get as high as -5 on Sunday before kickoff. Theoretically, that is going to be a winning bet long term. However, it really didn't feel like the Eagles had a shot from the get-go. What are we supposed to expect here now in Cleveland?
The Browns are a better team than the Giants, but are they 8.5 points better? That's what the current market is now implying after this number was bet up to -3.5 from just -2 earlier in the week. I projected this spread Cleveland -1.5. The past two seasons Mayfield has averaged just 5.8 yards per pass attempt against defenses that rank in the top third of the league in pressure rate. He has thrown for only nine TDs compared to eight INTs. The Browns are 2-6 in those games. The Eagles rank No. 6 this season in pressure rate. At +3.5 on the Eagles' side now, I have to trust my numbers and go with the favorable matchup.
Pick: Eagles +3.5
Marks: The Browns are dealing with a lot this week, Myles Garrett has been ruled out for Sunday due to Covid, Jack Conklin needs to test negative to come off the Covid reserve list, and Wyatt Teller is dealing with a calf injury. Meanwhile, the Eagles come into Cleveland with a must win mentality after a losing to the Giants last week, and the Browns defense doesn't even compare to the G-Men. The Eagles continue to get healthier with the expectation of Zach Ertz coming off of IR this week for the game. This is a good spot for the Eagles.
Pick: Eagles +9.5 in teaser with Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington (-1, 46.5)
Fulghum: I don't mind backing Alex Smith and the Washington passing game in this matchup with the Bengals. I think Washington will be able to move the ball and score, driving the scoring over the total. The Bengals are 26th in passing yards allowed per game (265.1) and 25th in net yards per attempt (7.32). Smith has cleared 325 yards each of his last two games.
Terry McLaurin draws an unimposing matchup against a Bengals team ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. He's No. 1 in the NFL in air yards share (41.6%). He should crush.
The Bengals throw the football as much as any team in the NFL -- rookie QB Joe Burrow is second in the league in attempts -- meaning we should see ample play volume for both teams.
Pick: Over 46.5, Smith over 268.5 passing yards, McLaurin over 5.5 receptions, over 73.5 receiving yards
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10, 46.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Fortenbaugh: This is Pittsburgh's fourth road game in five weeks, and it comes against a 1-8 opponent just four days before a Thanksgiving showdown with Baltimore. To put it another way, Week 11 is a hybrid flat spot/look-ahead spot for the Steelers, and Mike Tomlin tends to underperform in these situations. The Jaguars are their usual dumpster-fire selves, but the team did have a fourth-quarter lead against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at Lambeau Field last Sunday before losing 24-20. Look for another tight affair.
Pick: Jaguars +10
Walder: JuJu Smith-Schuster is on the very bottom end of receivers in terms of depth -- both in terms of his average air yards per target and just how far downfield he is 3 seconds into a route, whether he is targeted or not. He runs verticals at one of the lowest rates in the league and runs lots of crosses and outside short routes (though less so the past two weeks). The worry here is the volume; over the past few weeks his targets have increased. Still, it's hard to get past all of the shallow work he does that would require significant YAC to hit the over here. He might get catches, but it's unlikely he'll haul in a deep ball.
Pick: Smith-Schuster longest reception under 21.5 yards (-120)
Kezirian: This is a relatively low total for an NFL game in 2020. The Jaguars have lost eight straight games, allowing at least 24 points in all of them. They rank second-worst in the NFL by allowing 6.4 yards per play. A powerful offense such as Pittsburgh's should be able to carve up this weak defense.
The issue is how many points can Jacksonville produce? QB Jake Luton has started the past two games and injected some life. He passed for more than 300 yards in his debut, albeit against a poor Houston defense, and had some nice moments last week against Green Bay in tough wind. Given the Steelers face the Ravens on Thanksgiving, there is a chance they lack some intensity and overlook Jacksonville. Mike Tomlin dismissed that possibility, but players are human.
Pick: Over 46.5
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 49)
Schatz: There's a significant gap between these teams in DVOA. Baltimore is now sixth after losing to New England, while Tennessee dropped to 16th after falling to Indianapolis last Thursday. However, these teams are opposites. Baltimore excels on defense and special teams, but its offense ranks just 24th. Tennessee excels on offense (third), but its defense is just 24th and its special teams unit is a dismal 31st. That's important, because offense is more predictive than defense and special teams. So the gap between these teams going forward is likely to be smaller than the gap between them in the past. Also, injuries on the Baltimore defensive line can't be good with Derrick Henry on the docket this week. Combine those two things with the seeming disappearance of home-field advantage in 2020, and that's enough for me to pick Tennessee to cover.
Pick: Titans +6.5
Fortenbaugh: After the Ravens were run out of their own building by the Titans in last year's playoffs despite closing as a 10-point favorite, we can talk about Baltimore's revenge angle until we're blue in the face. But Tennessee enters Week 11 on extra rest, having played Indianapolis on Thursday night in Week 10. More importantly, how much do you trust Lamar Jackson and the Ravens at this point? The offensive line is banged up, Jackson's play has regressed significantly, the Ravens are completely incapable of playing from behind, and a rematch with the Steelers is four days away on Thanksgiving. Remember, Mike Vrabel spent eight years playing defense under Bill Belichick in New England -- the same Belichick who just shut down Jackson and the Ravens last Sunday in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
Pick: Titans +6.5
Bearman: It's probably not good that we are all on the Titans here, so fade accordingly. However, I very much like taking a TD with a team off 10 days rest vs. the one that just got run out of Foxborough against a below-average Patriots team. If Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead can gash the Ravens' defense in a rain game where rushing was obvious, what will Henry do? Henry is averaging 115.7 rushing yards in three road games this season, and we all saw what he did in the playoffs against these same Ravens back in January (195 rushing yards). The Titans are also good in this spot, going 8-2 ATS under Mike Vrabel when a 'dog of four-plus points, while Lamar Jackson is only 5-11 ATS as a home favorite. This should be a close game, as most of the Titans' games have been this season.
Pick: Titans +6.5
Walder: Marquise Brown just keeps burning me and burning me ... and yet I come right back, wagering on his over. The opportunity has more than been there! Given the throws he has received, we'd expect him to record 44.5 receiving yards per game through the air, on average. A single yard of YAC would put him over, on average. And he and Jackson have been a successful combination in the past, so one would have to think their below expectation performance thus far would positively regress some. Recently that logic hasn't resulted in a win, but I'm still abiding by it.
Pick: Brown over 44.5 receiving yards (-120)
New England Patriots (-1.5, 49) at Houston Texans
Bearman: This is a game I wish I had jumped on before last Sunday night, as the opening lines had Houston favored by a couple points before New England dismantled the Ravens. While the huge value is gone, it's still a worthy bet. With home-field advantage a pre-2020 thing, would anyone take the Texans in a toss-up game vs. Bill Belichick and the Patriots? I admit, I was wrong last week in laying 7 with the Ravens on the road and still think the Patriots' dynasty is over, but this isn't Baltimore or Kansas City across the field ... it's the 2-7 Texans, who have managed to beat only Jacksonville this year. That's it. Two wins against the Jags and seven losses against the rest of the NFL. They are also 2-7 ATS, but only because Nick Chubb ran out of bounds last week at the 1-yard line or they'd be tied with the Cowboys at 1-8 ATS.
Houston ranks last in the league in rushing defense, which plays right into the Patriots' strength (third in rushing offense at 161 yards per game). The Pats have rushed for 150+ yards in six of nine games this season, including 173 last week in the rain vs. Baltimore. The Texans allowed 231 to Cleveland last week in a game that they knew would be a ground game due to the weather. The Patriots should be able to control the clock and move to .500 on the season, which is still on the outside of the playoff race but a far cry from the 2-5 start just a few weeks ago.
Pick: Patriots -1.5
Kezirian: I am not excited to back the Patriots in this spot, but I have to because I think they are capable of overcoming what sure looks like a flat spot. The Patriots earned an emotional revenge win over Baltimore on Sunday and now must travel to face a two-win Houston squad. However, the Pats are back in the playoff mix, so I expect a strong effort. As for the Texans, they just are not very good. Their only two wins came against Jacksonville, and they have covered only twice. One of those covers came last week when Nick Chubb ran out of bounds on the 1-yard line -- in a game where Houston was dominated statistically.
Pick: Patriots -1.5
4 p.m. ET games
Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 45) at Denver Broncos
Schatz: If you scroll above, you'll see I picked the Titans-Ravens game in part based on the idea that offense is more predictive than defense or special teams.
Pick: Dolphins -3.5
Bearman: The Dolphins are road favorites for the first time since 2017. They continue to get it done with an opportunistic defense and the best special teams in the league, helping Tagovailoa run the offense. Miami is a league-best 16-5 ATS dating back to last season, including 7-2 this season with a cover margin of 10.6 points, among the best in league history. If the Dolphins' zone defensive scheme can make Jared Goff and Justin Herbert (and Kyler Murray at times) look foolish, what are they going to do to Lock? Miami has the sixth-best pass rush in the league, and the Broncos have the fourth-worst pass blocking according to ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate metric -- that's a bad combo for a banged-up Lock, Rypien or Jeff Driskel. The Broncos have a bad habit of falling behind early (trailed at halftime in each of the past four games), and the Dolphins have jumped out to an early lead each time during their five-game winning streak. I'm going to fire on the Dolphins' first half and game this week.
Pick: Dolphins -3.5
Marks: I understand the hype around Tua, but we are burying the lead. This Dolphins' defense has been sensational this season. Miami sports a top-five scoring defense, thanks to disguising its zero blitz scheme and confusing quarterbacks. Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen said they ran the ball in the second half to avoid huge mistakes. Lock, who is dealing with a rib injury, is going to give it a go, but I would be surprised if he makes it all four quarters. The Fins' special teams are ranked first in the NFL in efficiency. They win the battle on all three levels.
Pick: Miami -3.5
Kezirian: I realize NFL handicapping requires one to avoid overreacting to the last game, but it's hard not to appreciate what Miami has done recently. The Dolphins have won five straight games, including three straight covers. Miami is just more connected and polished under Brian Flores, which presents a giant coaching advantage in this matchup against Vic Fangio. The Broncos are often lost on offense and instill minimal confidence, regardless of who plays quarterback.
Pick: Miami -3.5
New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5, 47)
Schatz: It's "Play All Your Chargers Week" in fantasy football, especially in the passing game, where the Jets rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. The Jets have given up two or more passing touchdowns in eight of their nine games this season. Justin Herbert has at least two in each of his past six games, making this a great prop despite the -170 odds. We estimate that Herbert has a greater than 75% chance of hitting this prop.
Pick: Herbert over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-170)
Marks: The Chargers have more motivation to win in this spot. Head coach Anthony Lynn is trying to save his job, and Herbert is competing to win offensive rookie of the year. Meanwhile, the Jets are in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes, which means losing is crucial to attain the first overall pick. Sam Darnold has already been ruled out, and the Jets cut their interception leader, defensive back Pierre Desir, and placed DB Brian Poole on IR with a knee injury. This game could get ugly, and I could see Lynn wanting to put up a lot of points against his former team.
Pick: Chargers -2.5 in teaser with Browns
Kezirian: The rationale is pretty simple. The winless Jets are likely the league's worst team and should be extremely overmatched. As Anita mentioned, New York is banged up in the secondary, and I expect Herbert to take full advantage. The Chargers have found ways to steal defeat from the jaws of victory, but I am hopeful that even Lynn cannot botch this ... I hope.
Pick: Chargers -2.5 in teaser with Vikings
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (-2, 51.5)
Fulghum: The Colts' defense has suppressed offensive output all year long. Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus runs a suffocating zone scheme that has held opposing QBs to the lowest passer rating in the league (78.9) and the second-fewest TD passes (11). Aaron Rodgers is great, but this is not a matchup for him and Davante Adams to reach their ceiling. Matt LaFleur also operates at a conservative pace offensively.
Pick: Under 51.5
Marks: Nyheim Hines took the lead role in the Colts' backfield last week, playing 39 offensive snaps and receiving 17 touches. He got six looks from Philip Rivers, and I expect him to be a big part of the passing attack this week against a Packers defense that is allowing over seven yards per target to opposing running backs.
Pick: Hines over 27.5 receiving yards (-120)
Johnson: I can't explain this line. I know the market has moved fairly heavily on the Colts the past few weeks (see the Ravens and Titans games most recently), but a swing from +2.5 in the opener to -2 now hosting the Packers is head-scratching to me. This matchup is essentially a dead PK in my projections (Packers 50.7% win probability). With Green Bay cornerback Jaire Alexander likely making his return to the field and Rodgers escaping the wind to throw in a dome, I'd recommend taking the points. For what it's worth, I prefer the ML price at +115 to +2, if that's available to you.
Pick: Packers +2
Clay: Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones have both been active for six games this season. Williams is averaging 52.7 scrimmage yards per game during those weeks, which includes more than 37 yards four times. It also includes a Week 10 effort in which he produced 55 yards on 11 touches. Yes, the Colts are very good against running backs, but eight RBs have reached 38 yards against them and four more hit 34. Williams' usage will be boosted with AJ Dillon and Tyler Ervin sidelined and his projection checks in at 53 yards on 12 touches.
Pick: Jamaal Williams over 37.5 scrimmage yards (-115)
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-7, 48.5)
Fortenbaugh: Mike McCarthy has endured his fair share of criticism this season, and for good reason. But he's 9-4 SU and 10-2-1 ATS coming off a bye week. Conversely, Minnesota enters Week 11 on a quick turnaround, having just beaten the Bears in Chicago on Monday night. This year has been a nightmare for the Cowboys, but they're catching big points in a favorable spot, just two weeks after showing they are capable of hanging with the undefeated Steelers
Pick: Cowboys +7
Fulghum: Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook and the dynamic duo of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson get an absolute dream matchup at home against the reeling Cowboys and their awful defense. Andy Dalton might be back under center for the Cowboys, improving their chances to score a bit more, but the Vikings very easily could go for 30+ in this matchup. The Cowboys are allowing 32.2 points per game this season, which is dead last in the NFL. Load up on Vikings players in fantasy.
Pick: Vikings -7
Kezirian: This certainly is not an ideal spot to back the Vikings, who are coming off a road win on Monday Night Football. But I trust Mike Zimmer to get his team to approach this game properly, feeding Cook early and often. That's why I also like the under. I do not anticipate Minnesota doing anything risky or flashy. Minnesota's defense should handle a pedestrian Dallas offense and bring home a boring victory.
Pick: Under 48.5; Vikings -1 in teaser with Chargers