Week 11 of the 2020 NFL schedule features several intriguing matchups among postseason contenders, starting with Thursday night's NFC West showdown between the Arizona Cardinals (6-3) and the Seahawks (6-3) in Seattle and ending on Monday night with the third team atop the NFC West, the Los Angeles Rams (6-3), visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3).
We also will see Jameis Winston make his debut as a starter for the New Orleans Saints (7-2) as they try to stay ahead of the Bucs in the NFC South.
We asked our experts to pick who will emerge to win the wild West, as well as biggest potential upsets, fantasy football flops and sleepers.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 11?
Mike Clay, fantasy writer: Packers (+2.5) over Colts. Picking the Packers (7-2) feels like cheating, but here we are. Even in a game that was closer than expected this past week, the Packers still reached three offensive touchdowns for the eighth time in nine games this season. The Colts' defense is terrific, but the offense ranks 24th in touchdowns (28th adjusted for schedule). This should be a close one, but Aaron Rodgers & Co. will get the job done.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Cowboys (+7.5) over Vikings. Dallas showed life against Pittsburgh, and the Cowboys will regroup coming off the bye. Minnesota should put up major yards against a maligned Dallas secondary, but that goes both ways. The Cowboys' receiving trio is still among the league's most potent, and Andy Dalton's return will provide some balance for a squeak-it-out win.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Eagles (+3.0) over Browns. Cleveland has one good win, over the Colts, but the rest of the teams the Browns have beaten have a combined record of 8-27-1. Now, I know what you're thinking: The Eagles aren't exactly the Steelers, rolling in here with a 3-5-1 record that's good enough for first place in the 2020 NFC East but no other division ever. But Carson Wentz has to get it together at some point, doesn't he? And even if this isn't that point, the Eagles' front should be able to get after Baker Mayfield enough to force a crucial mistake or two.
Mina Kimes, NFL analyst: Rams (+3.5) over Buccaneers. Tom Brady had a terrific game versus Carolina, but he was barely pressured, and we've seen this year that he has struggled against better pass-rushing units. Enter the Rams, who have one of the higher pressure rates in the league and a talented secondary behind Aaron Donald. If Rams quarterback Jared Goff can keep the ball out of harm's way, they can pull off the upset.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Packers (+2.5) over Colts. What am I missing here? I -- and FPI -- think the Packers ought to be slight favorites here. I appreciate what the Colts have done on defense this season -- you go, Xavier Rhodes -- but we're talking about a Pack offense that is second in efficiency behind only the Chiefs and helmed by the league's QBR leader? Yeah, I'll take Green Bay.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Jets (+8.5) over Chargers. What's life without a few out-on-a-limb predictions? The Jets are coming off a bye with extra time to prepare for a Chargers team that has a stellar rookie quarterback in Justin Herbert but also a bad habit of making life far too difficult on itself. Give me the Jets in a shocker.
Who's your pick to win the NFC West?
Clay: Seahawks. Seattle has dropped three of its past four games, but all three were on the road and tightly contested. With the Eagles, Giants, Jets and the Washington Football Team still on their schedule, the Seahawks have one of the league's easiest remaining slates, whereas the schedules for the other three NFC West teams are on the tougher side of the league. Seattle's defense is a problem, but an offense averaging a league-best 4.1 touchdowns per game can carry the Seahawks to the division title.
Fowler: Cardinals. If winning is infectious, then beating Seattle in a wild, overtime finish and topping Buffalo with the "Hail Murray" to DeAndre "Jumpman" Hopkins is an injection of ice into the veins. Arizona is flawed but has something strangely special working right now. Defenses don't have an answer for Kyler Murray's quick feet and quick release. They might find it by the end of this season or next year, but that won't stop a double-digit-win season -- especially with two NFC East opponents on the schedule.
Graziano: Seahawks. Because I believe in Russell Wilson to bounce back from his recent turnover issues and because they have three games left against NFC East teams (while the Cardinals have two and the Rams have none) and one against the Jets. If the Seahawks can beat Arizona on Thursday, they should be able to get on a nice streak against some easy competition and retake control of the division.
Kimes: Seahawks. The past few weeks have been ugly, but I have to think Russell Wilson will overcome the mental errors that have cropped up and get back to playing top-tier football. As Dan wrote, the Seahawks have a favorable schedule -- and notable players (Chris Carson, Shaquill Griffin) coming back from injury.
Walder: Seahawks. It's very close, but the schedule pushes it over the edge here. The Rams face the fourth-hardest remaining schedule in the league, per FPI, while the Seahawks, who still have the luxury of three NFC East games, have the fourth-easiest remaining slate. I'm not going to bet against the league's second-best quarterback versus soft competition.
Yates: Rams. And this is just a gut call, as this division really could go to any of the three teams with six wins right now. But I'll bank on the balance of the Rams, who had been outstanding in defensive player development of late. The injury to left tackle Andrew Whitworth concerns me, but this team strikes me as the slightest of favorites at the moment.
Time to get out your crystal ball: Where will Cam Newton be playing in 2021?
Clay: New England. The Patriots are playing well enough that they might not have a great opportunity to draft a franchise quarterback in April (barring a trade up), so perhaps re-upping Newton will be the best path forward. Even if the Patriots do select a quarterback on Day 1 or 2 of the draft, bringing back an impact player like Newton to hold down the fort makes sense.
Fowler: New England. Newton has acquitted himself well in his new environment. Questions about him integrating with the Patriot Way were overblown. The Patriots probably will be stuck in the middle with draft positioning, so bringing Newton back on a two- or three-year deal makes some sense. His numbers aren't inflated enough to command massive money, and next year the Patriots can surround him with better playmaking on the edge. My early sense is that Washington's Ron Rivera, Newton's old coach, will start over with a young QB in Year 2.
Graziano: Washington. Ron Rivera reunion! Alex Smith is finally out of guaranteed money after this year, and it seems pretty clear Washington doesn't believe Dwayne Haskins Jr. is the long-term answer. I'll predict Cam to Washington on a two-year deal.
Kimes: New England. Newton has had ups and downs, but his solid performances over the past three weeks suggest he has turned a corner. New England is aware of how limited his weapons are, and it probably won't be in a position to draft a top-tier rookie quarterback next year.
Walder: Pittsburgh! OK, the Patriots are the most likely, but I'm in the mood to take a wild stab. Here's what I'm thinking: Ben Roethlisberger retires. The Steelers are too good to consider a rebuild and also too good to even be in range for any of the top quarterbacks in the draft. So they turn to a veteran who, when paired with an elite defense, can keep them contenders.
Yates: New England. While Cam's numbers have not been prolific this season, I truly believe he has made an incredibly favorable mark on the organization and brings to the table so many attributes that this team covets at the position. The team has a limited group of skill players, and developing consistency on offense was going to be tough. But Newton (with a franchise tag as an option) plus an improved group of pass-catchers seems like a plausible outcome to me.
What should the 3-6 Broncos do at QB next year?
Clay: Spend their first-round pick on a quarterback. Denver is set to face arguably the league's hardest remaining schedule. That being the case, the Broncos very well could be picking in the top five of April's draft. If you're not sure if you have a franchise quarterback, you probably don't have one. Add in Lock's struggles with health and efficiency -- as well as the low hit rate of quarterbacks selected after the first round -- and throwing a dart at a franchise-altering talent becomes a no-brainer.
Fowler: Let's experiment: Keep Drew Lock for another year but also explore a trade for Sam Darnold, who might be available for a Day 2 pick in April assuming the Jets secure Clemson's Trevor Lawrence at No. 1. Then let things play out, hoping competition helps these talented but erratic passers curb their mistakes. Or hope the Cowboys don't franchise-tag Dak Prescott, then throw an obscene amount of money at him if he becomes available. Nothing has really worked for Denver's QB outlook over the past half-decade, so absent a top-five pick, looking at all options isn't such a bad thing. Lock could change minds over the final seven weeks too, so committing to him as a starter isn't a terrible thing.
Graziano: Stick with Lock and bring in a Ryan Fitzpatrick type to help bring him along. This isn't the best week to preach "Stick with Lock," given the four interceptions in Sunday's ugly loss to the Raiders. But he has shown enough to make the Broncos believe he can be the guy. Like any young player, he needs time and help to iron out his mistakes and young-player issues. It's too soon to give up on him, and the Broncos still have two more years on his rookie contract. The young group of receivers around him is encouraging enough to help you believe he can get things going, and when Courtland Sutton comes back next year, it only gets better.
Kimes: Trade for a young QB such as Sam Darnold or Dwayne Haskins Jr. Denver probably won't be in a position to draft one of the better QBs, but it needs to bring in legitimate competition for Lock. Assuming Matt Ryan isn't available (financially, it would be challenging for Atlanta to make a trade work), why not take a flier on Haskins or Darnold if Lock doesn't show signs of development by the end of this season?
Walder: Draft one early and/or find a starter in free agency. Lock ranks last in QBR this season, and at this point, the answer to the Broncos' QB woes is much more likely to be a non-Lock person than Lock. It's better to decide to move on now to find that next quarterback rather than waste another year to make that same decision. If the Broncos don't trade Lock, they should operate next offseason under no illusion that he will be their starter.
Yates: Stick with Lock. We do this a lot: When a quarterback struggles, we immediately turn to the "they can just draft a first-round signal-caller" to heal the issue. A few teams will go that route, but our focus should be on those with two or fewer wins right now (Jets, Jaguars, Washington). I know Lock has been wildly inconsistent, but we need to accept that these players don't all enter the NFL as fully formed and ready to take the reins and just run with the gig. Absent cratering to a top-five pick, I'd run it back with Lock.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 11
Clay: Kalen Ballage, RB, Chargers. As perhaps Ballage's biggest critic leading up to the 2018 draft and through the 2019 fantasy draft season, I can't believe it has come to this. But as we often say, volume is king in fantasy football. Ballage has 33 carries and nine targets in his two games with Los Angeles, and he played a massive 73% of the offensive snaps against Miami on Sunday. The Chargers are heavy home favorites against the struggling Jets, which positions Ballage for 15-plus touches in a terrific matchup.
Fowler: Austin Hooper, TE, Browns. The Eagles are shaky at times against tight end play, allowing 503 yards and six touchdowns to the position. After blustery Cleveland conditions wiped out last week's passing game in a 10-7 win over Houston, the Browns can try to spark Baker Mayfield with short to intermediate throws off play-action. Hooper will be available for that.
Graziano: Jared Cook, TE, Saints. The Falcons allow the most fantasy points in the league to opposing tight ends. The QB situation in New Orleans is up in the air. If it's Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill playing in place of an injured Drew Brees, and if Cook is getting open the way tight ends do against Atlanta, he is going to be an awfully enticing target.
Kimes: Christian Kirk, WR, Cardinals. Kirk had a quiet outing against Buffalo after exploding the week before, but I expect him to go off again versus Seattle -- largely because, well, I expect every wide receiver to go off versus Seattle.
Walder: Jameis Winston, QB, Saints. I'm excited to see what Winston will do in the Sean Payton offense. Or maybe more accurately, I'm excited to see what Sean Payton will do with a quarterback who throws downfield. Winston does plenty of that and is going against a weak Atlanta secondary, so this could easily turn into a shootout with tons of fantasy points to go around.
Yates: Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts. Pittman is coming off of the best game of his young career (over 100 yards on seven catches) and looks the part. He now faces a Green Bay secondary whose top two cornerbacks are uncertain to play due to injury. Pittman is fun to watch.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Clay: DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks. This might prove extremely foolish, but let's check Metcalf's career receiving lines against Arizona: 1-6-0, 0-0-0 and 2-23-0. Is that bad? It seems bad. Metcalf was shadowed by Patrick Peterson in the past two meetings between these teams (one of which was in Week 7), and the veteran corner has had his number.
Fowler: Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks. Lockett went off for 15 catches, 200 yards and three scores against Arizona in Week 7. Got a feeling the Cardinals will sell out to stop Lockett, opening lanes for Metcalf. Plus, Seattle desperately wants to reignite its running game, which could hurt Lockett's bottom line.
Graziano: James Robinson, RB, Jaguars. He has been an incredible find -- the kind of player who probably has you in strong playoff contention in your league if you were able to scoop him up in early September. But this matchup against the Steelers, who are the toughest team in the league against fantasy running backs, is not ideal -- especially considering the strong likelihood that the game script forces the Jaguars into throwing mode early.
Kimes: Todd Gurley II, RB, Falcons. The Saints' run defense is very stout -- like, allows the second-lowest number of points to opposing running backs stout. I expect the Falcons to adopt a pass-heavy script, counting on Julio Jones to take advantage of individual matchups.
Walder: Kalen Ballage, RB, Chargers. In regard to game script and opportunity, this is a great matchup. And going head-to-head against Clay is usually a losing proposition. But the Jets are sneaky good at run defense! They rank first in run stop win rate and fifth in success rate against the run, so I'm throwing a little cold water on the Ballage revenge game.
Yates: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. It's frightening to forecast anything but excellent for Rodgers, but this a very tough matchup! The Colts have allowed a total of four passing touchdowns over their past four games and have been one of the stingiest pass defenses in the league in a variety of noteworthy categories. I'm not sure a 20-plus-point effort is in the cards for Rodgers.