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NFL Week 11 market watch: Packers an underdog at Indy?

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are underdogs against the Colts. Ben Margot/AP Photo

We have had a number of significant moves already in Week 11, so I'm going to jump right in and share my thoughts on a few that stand out to me the most.

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Tuesday.


Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 57.5)

I have been stanning for the Seahawks as much as anybody this season, and even I will admit that the -4.5 opener was too high. I project a fully healthy Seattle team as a 3.4-point favorite, but injuries piling up on both sides of the ball aren't helping the Seahawks' chances. Tyler Lockett is the latest casualty (a knee sprain is keeping him out of practice this week). The popular narrative will be fading Arizona after the "Hail Murray" against a Seattle squad wanting revenge for the loss the first time these two teams met. But I don't buy it, so I'm staying away now at this price.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (-3.5, 45.5)

I don't get the Eagles anymore. They were as healthy as they have been in a season and a half, coming out of a bye week to face a Giants team that is inferior on paper. I bet Philly -3, and the market saw this number get as high as -5 on Sunday before kickoff. Theoretically, that is going to be a winning bet long term. However, it really didn't feel like the Eagles had a shot from the get-go. What are we supposed to expect here now in Cleveland? The Browns are a better team than the Giants, but are they 8.5 points better? That's what the current market is now implying after this number was bet up to -3.5 from just -2 early in the week. I project this spread Cleveland -1.5, so at +3.5 on the Eagles side, that's the only way I can reluctantly look.

New England Patriots (-2.5, 48) at Houston Texans

The look-ahead line before the Pats took on the Ravens on Sunday night was Texans -2.5. This point spread is even as high as Patriots -2.5 now in the market at some shops. The 4.5-point swing is an increase in win probability of about 8%. Is New England really 8% more likely to beat the Texans now because they beat the Ravens in a monsoon? Probably not. I think the Texans -2.5 opener would have been bet down some anyway, but this is pretty drastic. If we see +3s pop on the Houston side, I will likely get involved.

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 51.5)

I can't explain this one. I know the market has moved on the Colts the last few weeks fairly heavily (see the Ravens and Titans games most recently), but a swing from +2.5 in the opener to -2.5 now hosting the Packers is head-scratching to me. This matchup is essentially a dead PK in my projections. I'll be waiting to see if this reaches +3, but even at +115 on the money line or taking the 2.5 points, I disagree with the market move and will be playing the other way.


ESPN Week 11 Power Rankings

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)
3. Packers (7-2)
4. New Orleans Saints (7-2)
5. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3)
7. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
8. Cardinals (6-3)
9. Los Angeles Rams (6-3)
10. Seahawks (6-3)

Preston's Power Ratings

1. Chiefs
2. Ravens +1.8
3. Steelers +2.8
4. Saints +3.8 (with Drew Brees, +5.7; No. 8 with Jameis Winston)
5. Packers +4.4
6. Buccaneers +4.4 7. Seahawks +4.5
8. Colts +5.4
9. Rams +5.8
10. Titans +6.9*
11. Cardinals +6.9*
12. Bills +7.0*

The Steelers narrowed the gap between them and the Chiefs after their convincing victory over the Bengals on Sunday. I still don't have it in me to put them in the top spot, but the argument for Pittsburgh over Baltimore after the injuries that the Ravens have suffered recently is certainly a fair one.

I didn't want to believe in the Steel City, but the numbers at this point don't really lie. Pittsburgh now ranks No. 1 in the NFL in success rate against both the run and the pass. The Steelers are No. 2 in DVOA. Their defensive line is the best in football. They lead the league with a 9.6% adjusted sack rate and rank No. 2 in adjusted line yards against the run. They're fierce. I'm coming around. That being said, if we see the market go to 10.5 in the Jaguars-Steelers matchup this week with a divisional rematch against Baltimore on deck, I might be making my first Jake Luton bet since he faced the Oregon Ducks to end his collegiate career in the Civil War last year.

*I wanted to include the Cardinals and the Bills this week coming in at the 11 and 12 spots since the margins are razor thin relative to the Titans at 10. A fairly big test is in store this week for Tennessee when they face the Ravens.