Every Sunday, I spend some time updating my numbers, based on the closing market prices of that day's games, the results and data from the games, and my prior team ratings. Next, I compare my new projections to the early market when sportsbooks start posting lines for the following week's games. Finally, I write about the games that stand out right away.
Unfortunately, this week, only one game is showing a big enough discrepancy to make it worth betting right away. That tends to happen more frequently in the second half of the season, as the markets become more efficient and my projections adjust, too. When the margins are so thin, it's worth it to wait on injury and COVID-19 news as it comes in during the week.
To make matters worse, the game (Tennessee at Baltimore) was pulled because the Ravens were playing on Sunday night. The line prior to kickoff, however, was Ravens -6.5 or -7, depending on the shop, and we should see a similar number when the game is reposted.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Oh, boy, the revenge narrative is going to run rampant this week, isn't it? More importantly, I rate the Ravens as the second-best team in the NFL and the Titans 10th. Plus, Tennessee will have a rest advantage coming off a Thursday night game. I can't get my projection any higher than Ravens -4. Don't just trust me, though. Let's take a look at the market the past two weeks.
Baltimore closed PK at Indianapolis in Week 9. A week later, Indianapolis went to Tennessee and closed -1. Therefore, the betting market deemed the Ravens and Titans relatively close to each other.
The Ravens beat the Colts by 14 points in Week 9, and then the Colts beat the Titans by 17 in Week 10. But if sports betting were solvable using just two recent data points, we would all own islands. Regardless, I can't get to a discrepancy of 6.5 or 7 points.
The Ravens certainly didn't look very stout Sunday night against the Patriots' rushing attack, and they suffered multiple injuries on defense. If this game reopens at Titans +7 or even +6.5, I think that's a worthwhile bet.
EARLY WEEK 11 LINES (as of 11 p.m. ET Sunday via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill)
Thursday
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 57)
Sunday
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (-3.5, 45.5)
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (NA)
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington (-1, 45)
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (NA)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10, 46) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (NA)
New England Patriots at Houston Texans (NA)
Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 44.5) at Denver Broncos
New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5, 47)
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 49)
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-8.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 55) at Las Vegas Raiders
Monday
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 49)