The Minnesota Vikings are only 3-5, but they've won two straight, and they're favored over the 5-4 Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on Monday night.
ESPN betting experts Doug Kezirian, Joe Fortenbaugh and Anita Marks, ESPN analytics' Seth Walder and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz have teamed to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings (-3, 43.5) at Chicago Bears
Bears +3
Kezirian: The Bears' offense is painful to watch, but I think it's good enough for the cover. Matt Nagy handing over the playcalling duties to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor will shake things up for the better. More importantly, the Bears' defense is among the NFL's best and will keep the Vikings in check. I think Chicago will have a solid game plan to defend Vikings running back Dalvin Cook, who is now in the league MVP discussion thanks to his recent play. And for what it's worth, Kirk Cousins has been abysmal on Monday Night Football -- 0-9 straight up and against the spread. Maybe it's the big stage or maybe it's just coincidence? Either way, I don't feel like laying points with Cousins, especially since the spread has reached the key number of three. So I lean to the Bears.
Fortenbaugh: It's not a play that I love, but I'll side with the home underdog at +3 or better. After all, this is the same Vikings team that started the season 1-5, right? The key for the Vikings is Cook, who has 369 rushing yards in the past two games. But keep in mind that Chicago is tied for ninth in opponent yards per carry: If Cook can't get going, the pressure shifts to the shaky signal-caller, Cousins. As for the Bears' offense, Nagy handing playcalling duties over to Lazor can't possibly be a downgrade based on how this season has gone so far.
Marks: The Vikings have had success running the ball the past two weeks, but the Bears present a different challenge. Cousins and the Vikings' passing game will have to show up on Monday night, and he seems to struggle in prime time. If Derrick Henry had a tough time running on the Bears, so will Cook. Offensively, the Bears score the majority of their touchdowns via the pass, and I expect Jimmy Graham and Darnell Mooney to dominate their matchups.
Jimmy Graham longest reception under 16.5 yards
Walder: Out of the 39 tight ends with 100 routes run entering Sunday, Graham was ranked 32nd in average depth of target, at just 6.2 yards. Graham is running pivot routes (mostly hitches) 23% of the time, which is the second-highest rate among that same group of tight ends. Just 4% of pivot targets have gone for a 17-yard gain, the second-lowest rate among any of our route groups -- only behind short outside routes, which make up another 25% of Graham's routes. With Graham, there's always a chance he'll grab a jump ball, but I'm willing to bet that contested catch won't come very far downfield.
Dalvin Cook over 16.5 receiving yards
Schatz: The Bears' defense is very strong against running backs in the passing game (second in DVOA), but it still allows more yards than this per game. In fact, the Bears' defense has allowed at least 16 receiving yards to running backs in every game this year except one. Meanwhile, Cook has topped this prop in four of the past five games, just missing it with 16 receiving yards in the other game.
Darnell Mooney over 44.5 receiving yards
Marks: Mooney has developed good chemistry with Nick Foles. He received 11 looks last week, and Foles likes to take shots downfield. The Vikings' secondary can be beat on targets of 20 yards or more, and that is Mooney's wheelhouse.
Ifeadi Odenigbo under 0.5 sacks (-190) at DraftKings
Walder: Though Odenigbo recorded 7 sacks last year and 2.5 this year for an overall sack rate of 2% during that span, his underlying metrics do not seem to support that level of productivity. His pass rush win rate as an edge this season is just 7%, fourth-worst among qualifiers. Even if we extend back to last season, Odenigbo has one of the highest sack to pass rush win ratios in the league. Because sacks are so infrequent, I'd rather rely on a measurement that records information on a higher percentage of plays - pass rush win rate -- to get a sense of pass rushing skills.
Robert Quinn over 0.5 sacks (+325) at DraftKings
Walder: I feel a little misleading taking a heavy favorite like the Odenigbo bet above, so I'm balancing it out with an underdog sack selection in Quinn. The former Cowboys player has long been beloved by our win rate metrics, and that translated to traditional production last season when he recorded 11.5 sacks. While his pass rush win rate has fallen off by a good amount this year - 18% as an edge, 18th-best - his one sack this season still feels like an underachievement relative to that. While at 30 it's very reasonable that he may be declining, his average pass rush get off (the time to cross the LOS, per NFL Next Gen Stats) is the exact same as it was last year. He looks like a value at this price.