After my first look through the Week 7 card in the NFL, three games stand out. Let's kick things off with the Thursday night game:
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 45)
I bet against the Eagles each of the past two weeks (1-1). Their loss to the Ravens on Sunday was a little more lopsided than the final score indicates after Philadelphia scored 22 points late. But the Eagles' offense has exceeded expectations against two of the best defenses in the league. They've been missing key players, and now both tight end Zach Ertz and running back Miles Sanders suffered injuries against the Ravens.
With so many players questionable and this being a Thursday game, it isn't worth betting until there's more clarity on the Philadelphia side. What I do know is, if Ertz and Sanders are able to play, I project this spread closer to -7 with a total of 47. For context, the total for the Washington-New York game on Sunday was 42.5. Washington was ranked fourth in the NFL in defensive DVOA, while Philly was ranked 23rd. Washington was ranked third in success rate against the pass, while Philly was 19th. This could be at least somewhat refreshing for Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. The Eagles' offense is obviously more potent than Washington's, too.
I expect enough points on Thursday night to get us over a total of 45, but I want to make sure Ertz and Sanders are OK before I jump in.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5, 52.5) at Tennessee Titans
I'm a little surprised the Steelers are favored here. If we compare this to the market two weeks ago, when the Titans hosted the Bills and closed as 3-point underdogs, it makes sense. But remember, the Titans were coming off missed practices, canceled games and COVID-19 concerns. All Tennessee has done since is beat Buffalo by 26, and then Houston on Sunday in an overtime thriller. Maybe the way the latter game finished is playing a bigger role in this price than it should. While Tennessee needed a touchdown with 4 seconds left to force overtime, the Titans had outgained the Texans by more than 100 yards. The Titans averaged 8.6 yards per play compared to the Texans at 6.1. Two turnovers and a bunch of penalties allowed Deshaun Watson to lead a comeback.
Pittsburgh linebacker Devin Bush was injured on Sunday, and the Steelers' defense will struggle without him against a Derrick Henry-led rushing attack. I'm not hurrying to back Tennessee at +1.5, but I do think it is an ideal six-point teaser leg option to get the Titans through the key numbers to +7.5. I also project the total in this matchup closer to 54, and if you've been riding the Titans' overs (65 points per game in their past four), there isn't any reason to stop now.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 53.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
The whole "bet numbers not teams" adage applies here. Part of me isn't surprised this point spread is inflated on the Tampa Bay side after the Buccaneers dismantled Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. We pointed to the spread potentially reaching Buccaneers +3 in last Sunday night's column, and sure enough the Bucs hit +3 before kickoff at most shops.
But that line implies Tampa Bay would have been roughly +7 if the game was at Green Bay. Now the Buccaneers are laying three points at Las Vegas, against a Raiders team coming off a bye week following an upset of the Chiefs at Kansas City? Are the Packers really 10 points better than the Raiders on a neutral field? No way.
I'd be surprised if this Raiders +3 lasts. And if you want the Tampa Bay side, you'll likely get under the key number later this week.
EARLY WEEK 7 LINES (as of 11 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill)
Thursday
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 45)
Sunday
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 56.5)
Cleveland Browns (-3.5, 51.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5, 52.5) at Tennessee Titans
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 51)
Buffalo Bills (-10.5, N/A) at New York Jets
Dallas Cowboys (-3, N/A) at Washington Football Team
Green Bay Packers (-3, 56) at Houston Texans
Seattle Seahawks (-3, N/A) at Arizona Cardinals
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, N/A) at Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (N/A)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (-8, 49)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 53.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Monday
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (N/A)