We've got another Monday night doubleheader in the NFL in Week 6. First up is the Kansas City Chiefs at the Buffalo Bills (5 p.m. ET), followed by the Arizona Cardinals at the Dallas Cowboys (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN).
ESPN betting experts Preston Johnson, Joe Fortenbaugh and Anita Marks, ESPN analytics expert Seth Walder and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz have teamed up to offer their best bets on the games.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Sunday (unless otherwise indicated).
Kansas City Chiefs (-5, 57) at Buffalo Bills
Bills +5
Marks: Both teams are coming off disappointing losses. The Bills were missing three key players on Tuesday against the Titans: Tre'Davious White and Matt Milano on defense, and John Brown on offense. White and Milano are expected back Monday night, and will be needed to limit Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. The Raiders and Chargers have given the league a blueprint on how to slow down Patrick Mahomes and his crew, and the Bills have enough talent to do it. They will keep this within a field goal.
Josh Allen over 289.5 passing yards
Fortenbaugh: The third-year quarterback out of Wyoming is averaging 317.8 passing yards per game this season, and we just watched Raiders QB Derek Carr torch the Kansas City secondary for 347 yards last week. But the primary reason why I like this over is the predicted game script. If the high-flying Chiefs are 5-point road favorites in a game featuring an astronomical 57-point total, the Bills will likely be playing from behind in what could be a shootout, thus requiring Allen to throw early and often. Garbage time numbers are in play here.
Stefon Diggs longest reception under 27.5 yards
Walder: I will continue to ride this very specific Diggs train. Though an incredible receiver having a terrific season -- I referred to him as the non-QB MVP earlier this week -- Diggs isn't running a ton of deep routes. Among wideouts with at least 75 routes run entering Sunday, he was ranked 48th in air yards per target, 73rd in depth at three seconds on routes, and 79th in percentage of routes that are verticals (gos, corners, posts, seams, etc.). While the game situation isn't ideal here -- we expect the Bills to be behind, and therefore needing some deep shots -- the line is astronomical in response.
Arizona Cardinals (-1, 55.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys +1
Johnson: The loss of Dak Prescott will be felt, but not as significantly as the current market implies. Andy Dalton is arguably the best backup quarterback in the NFL, and he's better than a handful of starters, too. The way things ended in Cincinnati makes it easy to forget just how effective he was there for many years. And the offensive talent Dallas has around Dalton will give him a chance to succeed.
In this matchup specifically, I'm not sure the Arizona defense without Chandler Jones can take enough advantage of the injuries Dallas has on the offensive line. On the other side of the ball, despite the hype, the Cardinals' offense ranks only 20th in DVOA. I expect an underachieving Cowboys defense to keep them at bay. Dallas should be the favorite here, so taking the +1, or a money-line price at plus-money, is worthwhile.
Over 55.5
Schatz: This is all about pace, not the quality of the offenses. Yes, the Cowboys may slow down a bit and depend more on the run with Dalton at quarterback instead of Prescott. But Dallas is No. 1 this year in situation-neutral pace, and Arizona is No. 2. Based on our DAVE ratings that incorporate preseason data, the Cowboys' offense is now slightly below average with Dalton at quarterback, and the Cardinals' offense is slightly above average. However, both defenses are below average.
Fortenbaugh: The Cowboys rank dead-last in scoring defense, surrendering 34 or more points in four straight games. Even the Giants -- who had scored a grand total of 47 points entering their Week 5 date with Dallas -- hung 34 on 'em. Not only will the Cardinals score, but they'll give up plenty of points, too, due in part to the absence of Jones.
Aldon Smith under 0.5 sacks (-182 at DraftKings)
Walder: Though Smith has recorded four sacks already this season, his pass rush win rate -- in which we measure how often a pass-rusher beats his blocker within 2.5 seconds of the snap using NFL Next Gen Stats data -- is below average (33rd out of 50 qualifiers at edge). In addition, Kyler Murray has significantly improved his sack rate this season, dropping from 7.8% to 4% -- ranking him among the league's top 10.
Michael Gallup over 3.5 receptions (+140), over 41.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: I'm banking on the chemistry we saw between Dalton and Gallup last week -- Gallup had four targets, four receptions and 73 yards. The Cowboys' defense can't stop a runny nose, so they will be playing from behind -- Dalton will need to pass the ball in order to keep pace. Amari Cooper should be shadowed by Patrick Peterson, meaning Dalton will target Gallup.