We had a few wild upsets in Week 5 of the NFL season, and some unders even came in. It was refreshing to see the old NFL make a return. Let's not waste any time as we look ahead to Week 6. Three games stood out to me immediately, including one worth betting on right now:
Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 47.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
If I laid seven points with the Steelers in Pittsburgh against this banged-up Eagles team, then I shouldn't have any reservations laying seven points with the second-best team in the NFL -- even in Philadelphia. A few shops have already moved to -7.5, including Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
The Ravens just limited the Bengals to 205 yards and three points, on a field goal Cincinnati kicked with 30 seconds left. We can't expect that great of a defensive performance against a Doug Pederson-led offense, but the Eagles ran into a few fluky touchdowns against the Steelers, and I'm still generally bearish on the Philly offense until Carson Wentz's pass-catchers are healthy and impactful again. He still has tight end Zach Ertz, but any competent defense will take him away like the Steelers did (one reception for 6 yards on six targets).
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5, 51.5)
I value the Packers and Buccaneers very similarly overall, so at first glance, it looks like the wrong team is favored here. It's worth noting, though, that the market moved heavily against Tampa Bay before its Thursday night game in Chicago after the Buccaneers' injury report was released. Quarterback Tom Brady was without standout receiver Chris Godwin to go along with Justin Watson and O.J. Howard. Scotty Miller played hurt as well and didn't get a single target.
I will be watching the injury report again this week, but if the Buccaneers find themselves in a similar predicament I anticipate the market will keep moving up on the Packers' side, especially coming off a bye week. The truth is, one of these teams (Tampa Bay) ranks top 10 in success rate defensively against both the run and the pass, and the other (Green Bay) ranks bottom 10 in both.
I'm happy to back the better defense, at home, getting potentially two or three points and coming off of extra rest itself.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (not available yet)
I imagine everyone will be trying to pick a side in this matchup, which could very well decide home-field advantage in the AFC. I think Kansas City -3 (+100) would be extremely fair. Sure, Chiefs coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes coming off a loss sounds like a great narrative. There might even be some short-sample against-the-spread stats to back it up. But I will hopefully be looking past the side altogether.
This matchup is so conducive to points. I'm not reacting just to the Chiefs giving up 40 to the Raiders, but their defense has been below average all season. And this new Bills offense, while it pains me to admit it, is the real deal. Even if Josh Allen isn't an MVP-level quarterback, the playcalling and the ways they are attacking offensively put Allen and the Bills in much more efficient situations. Also, Allen's accuracy has improved. And the Buffalo defense is far from what it was a season ago, plus the Kansas City attack will be difficult to slow down anyway.
I'm hoping this opens with a total in the 54-55 range, and I'll be buying the over.
EARLY WEEK 6 LINES (as of midnight ET Monday, via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill)
Sunday
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (not available yet)
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (not available yet)
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, 50)
Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 47.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Football Team at New York Giants (-3.5, 44.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (not available yet)
Detroit Lions (-3, 53) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5, 46)
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 44)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (not available yet)
Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 51.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Rams (-3, 49.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Monday
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (not available yet)
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 53.5) at Dallas Cowboys