We're going to have only one Week 5 Monday night game after all, and it'll feature the 1-3 Los Angeles Chargers against the 2-2 New Orleans Saints (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).
ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh and Anita Marks, fantasy expert Mike Clay and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz have teamed up to offer their best bets on the game.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Sunday.
Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-7, 50)
Saints -7
Schatz: The Saints are a top-10 team this year according to our DVOA ratings. We had the Saints No. 1 in our projections entering the season, but I'm talking here about our ratings that only include the 2020 season so far -- no projections involved. The Saints rank in the top 10 of DVOA for all three phases of the game, but you don't need advanced stats to see that the Saints are stronger than their record; they rank in the top 10 for both offensive and defensive yards per play as well. Their biggest problem is that they've been penalized for so many yards this year. But as I wrote about earlier this week, those penalty yards are very unlikely to continue at the same rate. The Saints already have 11 defensive pass interference penalties -- they had only 12 all of last season! They have 244 yards given up on DPI, and no other team was above 100 entering Week 5. Meanwhile, the Chargers have been a little bit below average this year on both offense (19th in DVOA) and defense (20th). Justin Herbert is impressive, but the Chargers are suffering from a number of injuries around their roster.
Chargers over 20.5 (-120)
Fortenbaugh: As a 7-point underdog, the Chargers will likely be playing from behind, which means they'll be throwing the ball a lot. Herbert and company will be facing a Saints defense that has surrendered 23 or more points in every game this season, ranked 25th in scoring defense through four weeks (30.8 points per game). With Herbert at the helm, Los Angeles is averaging a respectable 22.3 points per game. Getting to 21 on Monday night in an empty Superdome shouldn't require a Herculean effort.
Hunter Henry over 50.5 receiving yards (-115)
Clay: Henry is averaging 56.1 receiving yards per game in 16 outings since the start of the 2019 season. That includes 61.2 in four games this season -- three of which resulted in 50-plus receiving yards, plus a 39-yard performance against Tampa Bay last weekend. Henry has been a favorite target of Herbert, with 17% of the rookie's throws going in his direction (6.0 per game) -- that trails only Keenan Allen for highest on the team. The Saints, meanwhile, have been atrocious against tight ends this season, allowing the most targets, second-most receptions and third-most receiving yards (82.5 per game) at that position.
Alvin Kamara to score a touchdown and Saints to win (-125)
Marks: Michael Thomas will be out Monday night, meaning the Saints will be relying on Kamara more than ever. Kamara already has more touchdowns after four weeks than he did all of last season, and is sporting a 40% target share in the Saints' passing game. The Chargers have a difficult time covering running backs, too.