The betting market and our Football Power Index (FPI) and Allstate Playoff Predictor often agree -- but not always. This week we're focusing on futures and where our model disagrees with the market.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Ohio State Buckeyes to win national title
Caesars Sportsbook: +250
Allstate Playoff Predictor: 35.7% (+180)
The Allstate Playoff Predictor dished out plenty of skepticism about Ohio State's chances the preseason. But it quickly did an about-face on the Buckeyes and has been more bullish than the market on their shot to win the national title for several weeks now. Even with Ohio State's odds dipping to their shortest yet this season, our model suggests they aren't short enough.
Ohio State is, according to FPI, the best team in college football right now. It thinks the Buckeyes are a little more than a field goal better than Alabama (the next-best team) on a neutral field. FPI still believes the Crimson Tide will have a better offense going forward, but to this point, the Buckeyes have been the most efficient offense in the country after adjusting for opponent.
But it's the Ohio State defense, spearheaded by elite pass-rusher Chase Young, that separates the Buckeyes from the Tide. To FPI, it is the second-best defense in the country, and to this point, it has been the best pass defense based on expected points added per play. For what it's worth, FPI gives Ohio State a slight special-teams advantage, too.
The Buckeyes' talent means they're more likely to get into the playoff (how good each team is factors into the committee's section, even if the committee doesn't actually stick to the four best teams mantra) and more likely to win the title once there.
Ohio State also has multiple paths to the playoff. It can win out and get in easily, sure. But if it loses to Penn State in a couple of weeks and finishes 11-1, we'd give the Buckeyes a 51% chance to still get in. They are -- at least right now -- the best team in college football and would have wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State and at Michigan.
Baylor Bears to win the Big 12
DraftKings: +700
FPI: 22.6% (+342)
Despite the fact that FPI is awfully confident that Baylor will not be sitting on selection day at 13-0 (just a 2% chance!), the Bears are likely (85% likely) to end up playing in the Big 12 championship game. Even if Baylor were to go 2-2 down the stretch, with losses to TCU and Oklahoma, the Bears would be overwhelmingly likely to get in. And 2-2 with losses to Oklahoma and Texas would also probably get it done.
The point is that although Baylor will be an underdog in the Big 12 championship game, right now you can get a team that is very likely to be in that game at 7-1 odds.
Georgia Bulldogs to win the SEC
DraftKings: +300
FPI: 29.8% (+236)
Georgia is actually in a similar boat to Baylor's. Like the Bears, the Bulldogs have an 85% chance to reach their conference championship game and will likely be underdogs once they get there.
The difference, of course, is that Georgia is not as far behind Alabama or LSU as Baylor is behind Oklahoma. Thanks to roughly equivalent defenses, in FPI's model, Georgia would be roughly a touchdown underdog to the Crimson Tide and just a 2-point underdog to LSU. Plus, just because Georgia has lost already this season doesn't mean it will lose again.