It doesn't take an abundance of hyperbole to call Week 11 the biggest weekend of the college football season so far.
It's November now, and everything's bigger in November. Beyond that, in LSU at Alabama, we have our first regular-season No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup since 2011 (also LSU-Bama). Plus, we have two other top-20 matchups (No. 5 Penn State at No. 13 Minnesota, No. 18 Iowa at No. 16 Wisconsin) and four other games in which a ranked team is on the road and favored by 10 or fewer points, per SP+. Fireworks abound.
Let's look at the difference between SP+ projections and this week's market to try to suss out why those differences might exist.
SP+ has performed beautifully this season (55% against the spread, 82% straight-up), showing as much or more predictive power than the line itself. To the extent that the two disagree, let's look into why.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
No. 1 LSU Tigers at No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-6.5)
SP+ projection: Alabama 34, LSU 27
Early market: Alabama -5.5 to -6.5
Are Bama's injuries two points worse than LSU's? Even after a bye week, the injured list for this one is long. Tua Tagovailoa is still listed as questionable after his high-ankle sprain, key offensive weapons such as running back Najee Harris and receiver DeVonta Smith are probable, and tight end Miller Forristall is out for the season with a recent throat injury. (This run of offensive injuries complements the August/September run of defensive injuries for the Tide.)
LSU has its own set of issues. Star safety Grant Delpit (No. 3 tackler, five run stuffs, 6.5 havoc plays*) is questionable, as is reserve cornerback Cordale Flott. Linebacker Michael Divinity Jr. left the team this week.
SP+ ranks Alabama second overall and LSU third, but it projects a seven-point Bama win. Are the Tide's offensive injuries worth a couple of points more than the Delpit/Divinity combo?
*Havoc plays are tackles for loss, passes defensed and forced fumbles.
No. 5 Penn State Nittany Lions (-6.5) at No. 13 Minnesota Golden Gophers
SP+ projection: PSU 28, Minnesota 26
Early market: PSU -6 to -7
How much is a run of backup QBs worth?
After a shaky start to the season, Minnesota has caught fire over the past month, beating Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers and Maryland by an average score of 42-10. The Gophers have surged from 50th to 10th in SP+ and are only a slight projected home underdog against Penn State this weekend.
The defensive stats are a smidge inflated, though. During this run of domination, the Gophers played primarily against backup QBs (Illinois' Matt Robinson, Nebraska's Noah Vedral and Andrew Bunch, Rutgers' Johnny Langan, Maryland's Tyrrell Pigrome and Tyler DeSue).
The Minnesota run defense has been good almost all season, and the offense has come around nicely. This is a strong team, but they've risen from 79th to 22nd in defensive SP+ the past six weeks, and at least some of that comes from facing second-string QBs. How much, though? Is that worth the four to five points over which SP+ and oddsmakers disagree?
No. 18 Iowa Hawkeyes at No. 16 Wisconsin Badgers (-8.5)
SP+ projection: Wisconsin 27, Iowa 17
Early market: Wisconsin -8 to -10
Are we overreacting a bit to Wisconsin's two losses?
There isn't much difference between what SP+ and oddsmakers see at the moment, but this game opened at Wisconsin -10 in some places, and it appears that early betting has pulled the number toward the Hawkeyes a bit.
SP+ is a predictive measure that still gives the Badgers credit for looking awesome early in the season. It also doesn't penalize them as much as your eyeballs do for the past two games. It took both bad turnover luck (their turnover margin was nearly three TOs worse than normal fumble recovery rates and INT-to-PBU ratios would suggest) and a series of uncharacteristic red zone failures for the Badgers to lose to Illinois, and ... well ... you don't really get punished for being dominated by what has been, to date, a superhuman Ohio State team. SP+ likes Iowa but still really likes Wisconsin.
No. 11 Baylor Bears (-2.5) at TCU Horned Frogs
SP+ projection: Baylor 30, TCU 24
Early market: Baylor -1 to -2
Who needs a healthy QB, anyway?
I find this line utterly baffling. Baylor is currently 15th in SP+, and TCU is back at 30th. With TCU's home-field advantage, this projects as a one-score game, but if there's any extra information that SP+ isn't accounting for, it's the TCU quarterback situation.
Freshman QB Max Duggan played well enough to keep TCU within a touchdown at Oklahoma State last week (he threw for 258 yards, albeit with a freshman-like three interceptions and four sacks), but he injured a finger on his throwing hand on the Frogs' last drive. Backup Mike Collins came in, took an awkward hit and also left the game hurt. An injury there might cost the Frogs a point or so. Instead, Vegas has this one as nearly a toss-up.
Baylor admittedly considered losing to West Virginia last week, but that was a result that in no way matched up with the stats: Baylor more than doubled West Virginia's yardage and enjoyed a success rate advantage of 20 percentage points. If this is the reason for the close line, allow the numbers to sway you in the direction of the road team.
No. 15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-8) at Duke Blue Devils
SP+ projection: Notre Dame 30, Duke 20
Early market: Notre Dame -6 to -7.5
How much are offensive line injuries (and an unexpectedly tight win) worth?
I see two reasons that the number here is tighter than the SP+ projection.
1. The Irish line is crumbling. A week after right guard Tommy Kraemer went down with an MCL injury, right tackle Robert Hainsey was lost to an ankle injury. Notre Dame's offense already had efficiency issues, and now the line is taking on water.
2. The Virginia Tech game. The Irish needed a last-minute score to top Virginia Tech at home last week -- the same Tech team that lost by 35 at home to Duke a few weeks ago. Don't be fooled, though, as the Irish gave up the most costly play in football: a length-of-the-field turnover return touchdown. That 14-point swing helped to offset Notre Dame's advantages: +207 in yardage margin and twice as many scoring opportunities. That is a game the Irish win by a large margin most of the time, and they're almost certainly getting dinged a point or two for that.
No. 20 Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns (-6)
SP+ projection: Texas 33, K-State 31
Early market: Texas -5 to -6
Has Vegas caught up to how bad the Texas defense is?
Texas lost a good chunk of last season's secondary in the offseason and has had to battle countless injuries to the unit this season. That seems to have caught up to the Horns.
They've allowed at least 31 points and 6.6 yards per play in four straight games, and though that's excusable against Oklahoma, it's less so against West Virginia, Kansas and TCU. In their last two games before a Week 10 bye, UT underachieved drastically against the spread, too. The Longhorns won by two as three-touchdown favorites against Kansas, and they lost by 10 as one-point favorites at TCU. They're now down to 86th in defensive SP+.
K-State, meanwhile, has overachieved against the spread by an average of 21 points per game the past three weeks. The Wildcats upset OU two weeks ago, then avoided a hangover with an easy win over KU. I'm not sure they pass well enough to take full advantage of Texas' issues, but this appears to be a case of the market adjusting slowly to recent evidence.
No. 22 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-2.5) at Virginia Tech Hokies
SP+ projection: Wake 31, Virginia Tech 27
Early market: Wake -2.5 to -3
Who's the real Virginia Tech?
SP+ and Vegas all but agree on this one. To the extent that there's a difference, it might come from the fact that Virginia Tech has been impossible to figure out in 2019. The Hokies have faced two teams in the SP+ top 30 (Miami and Notre Dame, both on the road) and came within one point of going 2-0 against them. They also lost at home to Duke by 35 points, and they're on QB No. 3 for the season.
As mentioned above, however, the Hokies are almost certainly getting too much credit for their near-upset of Notre Dame. The statistics were so decisively in Notre Dame's favor that the Hokies dropped from 57th to 64th in SP+ despite nearly winning as 17-point underdogs. They aren't getting an overt amount of credit here, but that 98-yard fumble return score might have been worth a point or two on this number.