College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season
In Week 11 we're calling the fight in Southern California, dissecting the market response to Alabama-LSU and highlighting an ACC squad poised to close strong. There's also a monster number you can't reasonably lay in Week 11, plus a huge early line move.
All lines and totals from Circa Sportsbook as of Sunday.
Openers
First impressions from the schedule and opening lines.
LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-6.5, 65.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (CBS)
Opened by the Golden Nugget at -16 back in May and holding at Bama -9.5 for much of the season, this number continues to drop as the public pounds LSU. Circa, like a lot of books, opened this number at -7 but had to move to 6.5 very quickly. Alabama is only a 5.5- to 6-point choice in the leading offshore markets. Public underdogs don't typically fare very well, and their action figures to be lopsided on this one.
Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State Buckeyes (-44, 64)
Noon ET, Saturday (Fox)
This kind of price in a conference game is unprecedented for both Ohio State and the Big Ten. It's the largest anywhere since Oklahoma unsuccessfully laid Baylor 54 points in a 41-3 Sooners win in 2003. And Maryland isn't even the worst team in the Big Ten! It's a team that beat the worst team in the Big Ten 48-7!
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans (-12, 45.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (FS1)
Joe Bachie's suspension for PED use was the latest blow for this reeling program, and it looks more and more like the end for Mark Dantonio. The Spartans haven't won a game or scored more than 10 points since September, and we're asked to lay two touchdowns to a team on a three-game win streak that's allowed 26 points in its past eight quarters. This is like Ohio State above -- we're not saying the underdog is a must-play, but the favorite is unbackable under these conditions. It's no surprise this price fell from 13.5 to 12 quickly on Sunday afternoon.
Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats (-3, 43.5)
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (SEC Network)
Schools that have long series with opponents who have dominated them don't usually fare well in their rare turns as favorites, and this series is a good example. Kentucky has been favored over the Vols only three times in the border rivalry that for 52 years was played for the Beer Barrel trophy: in 2007 and each of the past two seasons. Tennessee covered all three.
UAB Blazers at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-7, 50.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
UAB has won seven of eight in the series, and the underdog has covered seven of eight. We were surprised that this price opened at Southern Miss -8.5 and expect it to continue to fall.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying or selling and why.
Buy: Louisville Cardinals
Louisville isn't one of the four teams still in control of the ACC race, but it's 5-3 overall, 3-2 in the league and well-positioned to finish second in the Atlantic Division. That's despite being unsettled at quarterback; Micale Cunningham has started, but true freshman Evan Conley has seen time in every game since original starter Jawon Pass was lost to injury in September. Philosophically, this is a run-first team, but it has three excellent receivers and has shown it can throw and catch when needed.
Scott Satterfield is now 10-1 after open dates, and when he speaks to the media this week we expect him to report that his team is healthier coming out of this one than it has been since early in the season. This bunch has bought into the new staff, improved throughout the year, is 3-0 in one-score games and has the schedule to finish strong.
Plan of action: Louisville is perfectly capable of winning its last four, all against teams with weaker offenses than the Cardinals saw in the first half of the conference schedule. Miami and Kentucky can't score enough to comfortably lay points, and Syracuse and NC State have looked like two of the worst teams in the ACC this year. Only at NC State will Louisville be road chalk, and only the one remaining home game versus the Orange might see the Cards laying double digits. We'll be eyeing this team the rest of the way, and our early guess in order of best to worst spots to wade in is Miami, Kentucky, NC State and Syracuse.
Sell: USC Trojans
The 56-24 final in a loss to Oregon doesn't do justice to what a nightmare this game was for the USC program. Up 10-0 and looking good at the end of one quarter, the Trojans allowed four touchdowns in the second frame, including a pick-six and a kickoff return score with just seconds left in the half. Then the floodgates opened in the second half. As weird as the game was, with Oregon having 113 yards gained and 112 in penalty yardage at halftime -- and an 11-point lead -- it was also standard fare for Clay Helton's Trojans. There were missed tackles, terrible ball security, unforced errors and head-scratching coaching decisions.
The players were shell-shocked at halftime and even more so after the game. It's over for this team and this staff, and they all know it. USC doesn't have the unity or the mental toughness to rally from what just happened and what it means.
Plan of action: The Trojans collapsed last November, closing out a 5-7 season with three straight losses, though they did cover the finale versus Notre Dame. But this year's finishing slate -- at Arizona State, at California and back home to host UCLA -- won't offer the Trojans any double-digit point spreads to provide margin for error or any home games versus undefeated opponents to provide special motivation (the Irish were 11-0 heading into last year's matchup). USC will be a favorite or tiny 'dog in all three games, and this is not a team you want to ask to win for you. We'll probably fade the Trojans in all three and certainly will this week at Arizona State. The Sun Devils' Jayden Daniels, Eno Benjamin and Brandon Aiyuk are exactly the kind of explosive playmakers that Southern California has trouble tackling on a good day. A defense that might be hard in the tank and has given up on coordinator Clancy Pendergast? That could have Arizona State statheads checking the school yards-per-play records.
Around the slate
Plenty of sharp money backed Akron last week, driving the price on home chalk Bowling Green from a touchdown all the way down to four. But the Falcons and books laughed last as Bowling Green rolled 35-6. The winless Zips remain the only FBS team without a cover this season. Ohio State and Louisiana have been the best bets this year, at 7-1 ATS.
SMU suffered its first loss of the season in a shootout with Memphis and remains the nation's best "over" team at 8-1 to the over. San Diego State, Iowa, California and South Alabama have seen all but one game go under.
There are several totals in the low 40s this week, with the 38 on Iowa's visit to Wisconsin the lowest opener of Week 11. That's also the coldest game on tap, according to early forecasts that set the temperature at 32 degrees. All of the games in the Midwest will be cold this week, starting with the weekday MAC affairs. Be alert for high winds. Florida State's trip to Boston College will also be one of the coldest games of the week, maybe not an ideal scenario for a reeling squad going through a coaching change.
The biggest early move from Sunday is Tuesday night's Kent at Toledo game, where the Rockets opened at -4 before zooming past the key number of 7 all the way to -8 in less than 10 minutes.