We finally had a week for the favorites in Week 7 in the NFL. An 8-5 mark against the spread isn't anything too drastic, but everyone had been calling for regression for the past couple of weeks, and it just hadn't turned yet. Sixty-two percent is a clip I would agree to any week, so shout out to the favorites out there that got the job done. Holding a few New York Jets tickets myself tonight, I'm hoping the favorites' mini-trend is already dead.
Interestingly enough, as I compared my Week 8 projections with Caesars' opening lines, nearly the entirety of the betting board lined up. I show small edges on the underdogs (Redskins +16 and Bengals +12.5) in the Thursday night game and London game, but it's not enough for me to fire this early in the week before I dig into matchup data. I never want to force action anyway, so I only have one bet that I've made at this point in the early market.
Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 8 line I'm investing in now
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5, 42.5)
I'm making Fitzmagic great again. Last week in our first-look column, I broke down embracing the high-variance approach of Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and betting the over 39.5. Not only was the 31-21 result a success, but the 42.5-point closing number in Buffalo also points to our process being sound. I'm going back to the well and snagging the over 42.5 for Week 8's Monday night game in Pittsburgh.
Digging into the box score yesterday, the Fitzpatrick-led Dolphins offense gained 5.8 yards per play (YPP) against the Bills. On the season, Miami was only averaging 4.0 YPP. Even more impressive, the Dolphins did it against a Buffalo defense that ranks No. 3 in the NFL allowing just 4.5 YPP. The offense was better, and Fitzpatrick's high-risk, high-reward approach was extremely beneficial.
The matchup on the Pittsburgh side for this game is also intriguing. One of the reasons the Steelers have had success despite playing backup quarterbacks Devlin Hodges and Mason Rudolph for the majority of the season is because they lead the NFL in adjusted sack rate (2.4%). The second-best team in pass protection this season is the Cowboys at 3.8% (for context, the league average is 7.0%). The Steelers' offensive line deserves plenty of credit, but so does the play-calling and Hodges' ability to make quick decisions. Do you know where the Miami defensive front ranks in adjusted sack rate? It's 31st! The Dolphins are only sacking their opponents on 4.2% of snaps. This bodes well for a Pittsburgh offense that is already aware of the lack of talent under center.
An efficient run game would help the Steelers, but they rank 27th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt (3.5) and 29th in adjusted line yards (3.6). The great news is Pittsburgh faces a Miami defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in allowing 5.23 adjusted line yards per play. In five of six games to this point, the Steelers have faced an opponent that ranks in my top 12. The Bengals were their other matchup that didn't, and Pittsburgh scored 27 with ease in a 27-3 blowout. This Miami team is still giving up over 35 points per game, and I'm confident we'll be getting out ahead of another strong over bet this week.
Early Week 8 lines
At completion of Sunday night game.
Thursday
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (-16, 40.5)
Sunday
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (Off)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Rams* (-12.5, 48)
Los Angeles Chargers at Chicago Bears (-5, 40)
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-7, 49)
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 41)
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6.5, 51)
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (Off)
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (Off)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 46.5)
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 42)
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-10.5, 46)
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5, 43.5)
Green Bay Packers (-3, 48) at Kansas City Chiefs
*in London
Monday
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5, 42.5)
Byes: Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens