The 2019 NFL season rolls on, and we're here with a betting preview for Monday night's game on ESPN between the undefeated New England Patriots and 1-4 New York Jets.
Preston Johnson, Joe Fortenbaugh and Fantasy's Mike Clay offer their best bets for the clash between AFC East rivals.
Note: Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday evening.
New England Patriots (-9.5, 43.5) at New York Jets
Tom Brady over 24.5 completions (-110)
Clay: Brady has gone over this mark during three of his past four games, which includes a 28-completion effort against the Jets in Week 3. Brady currently ranks no lower than eighth in the league in dropbacks, pass attempts and completions. The Patriots operated a run-first offense in 2018 but are the game-scripted-adjusted No. 2 pass-heaviest offense so far this season. The Jets' defense, meanwhile, is allowing the ninth-most pass attempts and 12th-most completions on a per-game basis in 2019. The Jets have fared well against the run and poorly against the pass this season, so expect Brady to be busy in this one against one of the league's shakiest group of cornerbacks. He projects for 27 completions on 41 attempts.
Sony Michel under 70.5 rush yards (-110)
Clay: New England's top ball carrier has fallen short of his mark in three of six games this season, though one of the exceptions was against Miami's horrific defense and the other two were the past two weeks with Rex Burkhead sidelined against struggling Giants and Redskins defenses. Michel was also under this mark in eight of 13 games last regular season, though he went over in all three playoff games thanks to enormous volume (23.7 carries/game). Michel did not fare well in the Week 3 meeting between these teams, totaling 11 yards on nine carries -- and that was with Quinnen Williams sidelined. Williams is back in the fold and adds to a terrific Jets interior defensive line that has allowed 3.6 yards per carry this season (fifth lowest in the league). Michel projects for 54 yards on 14 carries, though this will be a riskier bet if Burkhead remains sidelined.
Jets +10
Johnson: [Editor's note: This pick was written when the line was Jets +10. It has since moved to +9.5 at Caesars. There are 10s out there as of writing.] Looking at the DVOA team ratings following the Patriots' win Thursday over the Giants, New England has faced the three worst offenses in the NFL. Of the bottom eight teams, the Patriots have faced five -- and of the bottom 11, they've faced six. The most efficient offense they've seen belonged to those Giants, and they were without Saquon Barkley, Wayne Gallman, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram while traveling into bad weather in Foxborough on a short week. Now, the Jets' offensive numbers this season grade poorly, but they've played the majority of their snaps with Luke Falk under center (they released him this past week). I was shocked that the market initially reopened the Cowboys-Jets line at +9.5 and +9 after the Sam Darnold news. It was bet down to +7 before New York wound up upsetting Dallas 24-22, but getting 10 points (the line at some sportsbooks although it has moved to +9.5 at Caesars) with this healthier Jets squad -- even against the Patriots -- is too many (linebacker C.J. Mosley is set to make his return). My projection is right at +7.5, and I think my Patriots numbers are probably on the heavy side with how soft their schedule has been.
Jets +10
Fortenbaugh: I loved this bet at Jets +10 but will definitely get involved at Jets +9.5. How good is New England? The answer to this question generally branches off into one of two directions: the macro, which details the dynastic run of dynamic duo Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, or the micro, which focuses on a top-ranked defense and spotless record. However, let's take a closer look at that aforementioned record and the opponents' rankings for a moment, shall we?
Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh: 20th in scoring, 25th in yards per play
Week 2 at Miami: 32nd in scoring, 31st in yards per play
Week 3 vs. NY Jets: 31st in scoring, 32nd in yards per play
Week 4 at Buffalo: 25th in scoring, 19th in yards per play
Week 5 at Washington: 30th in scoring, 27th in yards per play
Week 6 vs. NY Giants: 24th in scoring, 21st in yards per play
A 6-0 record in the NFL is nothing to scoff at, but this particular 6-0 mark came against the worst opponents one schedule could possibly offer. You'll notice the Jets made this list as well, but that was with Luke Falk -- who is now a free agent -- at quarterback as opposed to Sam Darnold. Take note that the Patriots are just 1-5 ATS in their past six trips to New York to face the Jets.