As with last week, Week 7 in the NFL features a number of home underdogs. Vegas doesn't believe in "Brocktober," even after Brock Osweiler's 380-yard performance last week, so Miami is a home underdog to Detroit. Most fans expect New England to go into Chicago and beat the Bears. And the NFL's final unbeaten team, the Los Angeles Rams, is favored by 9.5 points as it travels north to face a historical rival in San Francisco.
There's one more home underdog of three or more points, and that's the game we've chosen for this week's "upset watch."
It's a pick we never would have made before the season. But the New York Jets have overperformed expectations, while the Minnesota Vikings have underperformed, and that gives the Jets a real chance to pull off the upset at MetLife Field this Sunday afternoon.
Upset watch: New York Jets (+3) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Before the season, the Vikings were considered Super Bowl contenders, and the Jets were afterthoughts. But look at the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, and you'll see a very surprising result: Based on Weeks 1-6, we have the Jets (16th) ranked higher than the Vikings (21st). Even in our DAVE ratings, which still incorporate preseason projections, the two teams are neck-and-neck.
What happened? The biggest explanation is that the Jets have gone and built a real defense, while the well-regarded Vikings defense has been struggling.
The Jets rank seventh in overall defensive DVOA (up from 18th last year) and sixth in pass defense DVOA (up from 22nd last year). A number of players have played key roles in the pass defense this season. Safety Jamal Adams has 12 defeats, a stat that adds together turnovers, tackles for loss and big third-down stops. That ranks second among defensive backs behind Arizona's Budda Baker. Morris Claiborne ranks fifth in success rate and seventh in yards allowed per pass among qualifying cornerbacks. Across from him, big free-agent addition Trumaine Johnson hasn't even been targeted enough to qualify for our rankings yet. However, he missed last week's game with a quad injury, and likely will miss this week's game as well.
The Johnson injury could be an issue because opponents have targeted the Jets' depth at cornerback. No team faces more passes per game to what we tag "other receivers," those receivers beyond the starting top two. They've given up big days to receivers such as Dede Westbrook and Marcus Johnson. However, while the Vikings have two great starting receivers, they don't seem particularly built to take advantage of this specific weakness, as slot receiver Laquon Treadwell has struggled all year with drops.
The biggest weakness for the Jets' defense has been the same as years past -- there's very little pass rush. The Jets rank only 28th in ESPN Stats & Information charting, with a 23.9 percent pressure rate. By Sports Info Solutions charting, undrafted rookie Frankie Luvu leads the Jets with 8.5 hurries -- that's tied for 56th in the NFL. But the good news for the Jets is that you don't need to pressure Kirk Cousins to get a mediocre performance out of him. Cousins has actually been better this year when he's under duress: third in QBR when pressured but only 14th in QBR when not pressured.
There's a lot more positive to say about the Jets' defense than the Jets' offense, which ranks only 28th in DVOA. This game is probably quarterback Sam Darnold's to win, because the Vikings' defense is ninth against the run and only 25th against the pass. The question is: Whom will he be trying to win it with? Quincy Enunwa already has been ruled out, and Robby Anderson (hamstring) and Terrelle Pryor (groin) both missed practice on Wednesday.
Whoever is healthy, the strategy is clear: Stay away from Minnesota's top cornerback, Xavier Rhodes. The difference between Rhodes and the other Minnesota corners is even more stark now that promising rookie Mike Hughes has been lost for the season with a torn ACL. Minnesota ranks first in DVOA covering opponents' No. 1 receivers, and 31st covering opponents' No. 2 receivers. Rhodes likely will be covering Anderson, which leaves Darnold to go to Pryor or Jermaine Kearse.
The Vikings are also dead last in DVOA covering tight ends and running backs, but the Jets are less well-built to exploit those weaknesses. They're below average in frequency of throwing passes to both positions.
However, the Jets have a big advantage in the third phase of the game, special teams, where New York ranks second in DVOA and Minnesota is 28th. The real gap is smaller than this, because the biggest negative for Minnesota's special teams comes from placekicking, and the placekicking has been better since the Vikings signed veteran Dan Bailey. But that doesn't help the Vikings deal with how strong the Jets have been on special teams, in particular on punts. The Jets rank first in punt return value and fourth in net punting value; the Vikings rank 22nd and 20th, respectively. Every little bit of field position helps.
Cover watch: New York Giants (+5.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Here's a matchup of two disappointing teams, and another game in which the DVOA ratings are a bit surprising: The Giants are a spot ahead of the Falcons. Despite all of its struggles and the inability of Eli Manning to throw downfield, the Giants' offense is surprisingly near average: 17th in DVOA. And while both of these defenses are underperforming, the Atlanta defense has been worse. The Giants rank 27th in DVOA and give up 5.7 net yards per play; the Falcons rank 31st in DVOA and give up 6.4 net yards per play.
The biggest problem for the Falcons will be Saquon Barkley. When it comes to New York's offense, he's the biggest problem for every defense, but especially for the Falcons. Atlanta ranks 31st in run defense DVOA. According to Sports Info Solutions charting, Barkley leads the league in broken tackles, while the Falcons' defense ranks 31st with more broken tackles than any defense except for Cleveland's. And Barkley isn't just a runner -- he's a receiver. He leads all running backs with 373 receiving yards. Atlanta ranks 26th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game, and only Kansas City has given up more receiving yards per game to running backs.
The other element pointing to a closer game: Even if the Falcons take a lead, it will be hard for them to run out the clock because their running game has been so poor this year. Right now Atlanta ranks sixth in pass offense DVOA, but is a dismal 30th in run offense DVOA.