In Week 6 we saw the Kansas City Chiefs, one of two previously unbeaten teams, lose despite scoring 40 points and gaining 8.42 yards per play in New England. The Los Angeles Rams took care of business in Denver thanks to a career Todd Gurley game (208 yards), and they remained undefeated.
The Philadelphia Eagles finally looked like defending Super Bowl champions, after New York money flooded the market ahead of the Thursday night game to drive the line all the way down to Philadelphia -1. The Giants also looked like the Giants. The Pittsburgh Steelers made the AFC North interesting again with a big win in Cincinnati on essentially the final play of the game -- a 31-yard touchdown with 10 seconds remaining. In fact, we saw a total of eight games come down to the final possession.
Let's dive into some of the other details that stuck out to me in Week 6 -- and learn how we can apply those lessons to our betting process for Week 7.
Buy: None
There isn't a "buy" for me this week. I wrote about the importance of not forcing narratives or bets in my column last week. I do believe, though, that the Dallas Cowboys could make things interesting in the near future with a few more wins under their belt. For now, I think their 40-7 win over Jacksonville is more a byproduct of what-in-the-world-is-wrong-with-the-Jaguars than it is the Cowboys offense suddenly being elite (they only gained 5.25 yards per play and benefited from multiple three-and-outs and two turnovers). That leads us to ...
Sell: Jacksonville Jaguars
I honestly do not know what is going on in Jacksonville. They are 3-3 and certainly have as good of a shot to win the AFC South as anybody going forward. But these results are mind-boggling. The Jaguars lost 9-6 at home to the Titans in Week 3, scored just 14 points against a Kansas City defense that has otherwise given up 31.6 points per game, and only managed to get one touchdown in Dallas this past Sunday.
So it must be the lack of running game, right? Leonard Fournette has been out for four games, and their offense is suffering. Nope. The Jaguars are actually averaging 4.4 yards per carry, which ranks 11th in the NFL (4.3 last season). So Blake Bortles and the passing game is struggling compared to last season? They have actually been equally as efficient as last year, gaining 6.8 yards per pass attempt in both seasons. Well, the defense must not be nearly as good! Well actually, they rank second in the NFL, giving up just 4.9 yards per play. They gave up 4.8 YPP last year.
The only real change has been the increase in turnovers. They are giving the ball away 2.3 times per game so far in 2018, compared to just 1.2 turnovers per game a year ago. Turnovers are extremely high-variance. It is going to be tough for me to bet confidently on Jaguars games until we see Jacksonville settle down some.
Early line moves for Week 7
Move that I agree with: The Patriots opened as 2.5-point favorites in Chicago this Sunday and are currently sitting at -3.5 at most shops. My number for this matchup is New England -3.7, so I am not too surprised, but the quick blitz through a key number like -3 is worth noting. I mentioned last week that I didn't understand the love on the Bears in Miami.
The Dolphins had a hoard of injury issues, including a Ryan Tannehill scratch before the game, but the Bears wound up closing as staggering seven-point road favorites. Miami won the game outright. I might still be lower on Chicago than the majority of the market, but it is somewhat reassuring to see the Patriots move immediately here in Week 7. I will be interested in seeing where this number closes, but I won't be getting involved and making a bet.
Move that I disagree with: There was only one game that moved slightly against my numbers this week. Everything else lined up, including the Jaguars move from -3.5 to -4.5 against the Texans, and the Falcons going from -4.5 to -6 against the Giants. The move that I disagree with, however, is the Chiefs moving from -5 to -6 at home against the Bengals. It certainly isn't a puzzling move. The darlings in Kansas City finally took their first loss in New England on Sunday night, but they were once again explosive offensively and gained a ridiculous 8.42 yards per play. My projection is Chiefs -5.1, so it isn't anything I will ultimately be betting against unless we see a +7 pop up later in the week.
Behind the box score: Understanding the whole story
Team A: 288 yards, 4.3 YPP, 23 points
Team B: 350 yards, 5.93 YPP, 17 points
The Washington Redskins-Carolina Panthers game this past Sunday flew under the radar. It wasn't a particularly exciting matchup to begin with, and with a 17-6 Redskins lead at halftime it was generally a pretty boring game. We want to look past the boring, however, and find details that can help us in our betting process.
The Redskins ultimately won this game 23-17 despite being outgained by 1.63 yards every time these teams lined up and ran a play. The difference was the three Panthers turnovers, including two fumbles from rookie wide receiver DJ Moore (who had two total fumbles in his three years at Maryland). This came just one week after New Orleans embarrassed Washington.
The jury is still out on the Redskins, and I think we are seeing a bit of an inflated number here in Week 7, as they're two-point home favorites against the Cowboys. I also think it makes the Panthers-Eagles matchup more intriguing. I had somebody message me Sunday night and ask why Philadelphia was only laying -4 at home. I wouldn't get caught up in their final score against Washington too much. My projection for this game is actually right at the current 4.5-point spread, so there isn't any value backing the Eagles in Week 7.
Slate Standout: Baltimore Ravens vs. New Orleans Saints
The Ravens are coming off of an impressive 21-0 shutout victory in Tennessee (sorry Titans fans, I am pretty sure I jinxed your team after talking up Matt LaFleur and the potential this offense had a few weeks ago). The Saints had their bye week after the Monday Night Drew Brees celebration game when they dominated the Redskins 43-19. It is pretty nice timing for New Orleans to get the extra week of preparation and time to refocus after all of the publicity the team drew because the all-time passing record was set. I expect a 100 percent Saints team here in Week 7.
After a Bengals loss to the Steelers, the Ravens are now tied atop the AFC North standings. Cincinnati still holds the tiebreaker, but Baltimore will have a shot to get that back when they host the Bengals on Nov. 18th. This is a massive game, because the Ravens' schedule isn't pretty. Following the Saints game, Baltimore travels to Carolina to take on the Panthers, and then back-to-back divisional games against the Steelers and Bengals after that. The Raiders come up next on the schedule, but road games at Atlanta and Kansas City ultimately make six of these next seven games toss-ups.
The matchup itself is a battle of opposing strengths and weaknesses. The Ravens still hold the league's top spot defensively, giving up just 4.4 yards per play to opponents, while the Saints rank 27th. Offensively, New Orleans ranks fifth in the NFL (6.5 YPP) and Baltimore 28th. What is going to give? My numbers actually make the Saints a small favorite. At +2.5 I would generally be looking to bet this discrepancy, but I am worried about Brees going up against the league's best defense in 14 mph projected winds outside of his comfort zone in the Superdome.
This will likely be a pass for me, which, to be completely honest, is kind of nice from time to time as a bettor. Rather than sweat out a wager on the game, I will be sitting back and enjoying a football game between two teams with contrasting styles and both vying for divisional crowns in extremely competitive divisions. Sounds good to me.
Weekly futures outlook
I made a bet Monday on the Atlanta Falcons to win the Super Bowl at +7000. After their win over Tampa Bay in Week 6, the Falcons find themselves sitting at 2-4 and the majority of people have completely written them off.
I should preface this explanation with the fact that I understand this bet is going to lose the majority of the time. In fact, I believe this bet will lose 96.7 percent of the time! So why am I making a wager on an outcome that I expect to only pay me off 3.3 percent of the time? The price. +7000 implies the Falcons will only win the Super Bowl about 1.41 percent of the time. Since I expect them to win it 3.3 percent of the time -- or a market price that equates to roughly +2900 -- and I can get +7000 on a bet I think should be lined +2900, I'm going to take that shot.
Atlanta faces the Giants, Redskins, Browns and Cowboys in their next four games. They could easily be 6-4 in a month, with a big divisional rematch against the Saints on deck. Nine or 10 wins at the end of the year can earn them a playoff spot, and at that point I am ecstatic to be holding a 70-1 ticket on a team that was one play away from winning it all two years ago and one play from returning to the NFC Championship Game just last season.