Week 5 offered us a little more surprise than we saw in Week 4. The Bills and Cardinals -- my two lowest-rated teams in the NFL -- both won games despite gaining only 220 yards apiece. This happened the same week the Cleveland Browns won another football game.
The Minnesota Vikings were the other underdog that got a victory, bouncing back after losses to the Bills and the Rams with a road win over the defending champs in Philadelphia. Two clear Super Bowl contenders in the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams each passed difficult tests with wins over Jacksonville and in Seattle, respectively. They are the only two remaining undefeated teams at this point in the season.
Most importantly, Drew Brees set the NFL record for career passing yards on Monday night against the Washington Redskins in a 43-19 victory. Rumors are flying around the internet that I was actually spotted in attendance crying during the Drew Brees celebration (at about 2:40 in this video).
I can neither confirm nor deny these allegations. What I do know, however, is that we have the most exciting week of NFL matchups to this point in the season on deck this weekend. Let's dive into some of the other details that stuck out to me in Week 5 -- and how we can apply them to our betting process for Week 6.
Buy:
A reminder that just because I am buying a team, it doesn't mean that I will be looking to blindly bet them the rest of the season. Value is all relative to the market and the prices we are being offered. This week's game against the Chargers, for example, is Cleveland +1. My number is Cleveland +0.9, so I won't be backing the Browns.
Over the past two weeks, I saw the majority of bettors laying -3 with the Raiders and -3 with the Ravens. I wrote about potential value actually being on Cleveland in both cases, with a rookie quarterback in Baker Mayfield that defenses didn't have much film on. My numbers were slightly lower anyway, and had either line reached +3.5 I would have been placing bets on the Browns. Well, after a miracle in Oakland the Raiders forced an overtime and won the game with a field goal, but Cleveland got their own overtime magic this past Sunday with a win over Baltimore.
The Browns' defense is really tough. They rank eighth in the league in opponent yards per play, giving up just 5.3, and they rank even better when adjusted for opponent strength. They lead the NFL in takeaways at three per game and are currently fourth against the pass (in a pass-happy league). Mayfield obviously has a long way to go before he will be leading this team to a Super Bowl, but from what we have seen to this point, he certainly has the potential to do so. Mayfield and the Browns defense have put the team in position to win their past three games (and they have won two of these, two more than they won all of last season).
This may not be an exact buy on Cleveland as much as it is just a sell on whomever they are matched up against each week. Again, this is dependent on the market, but the Browns certainly aren't a team I am looking to bet against unless my numbers point that way by a significant margin.
Sell: None
I have had teams that were worth selling in my weekly assessment previously (Arizona Cardinals, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers). These were teams that showed evidence of worry in their numbers at that point in the season, and I wanted to bring them to everyone's attention to caution people about betting on these teams going forward (at least in their near future).
After Week 5, I really dug into all of the box scores and games and didn't find anything that stood out that we aren't already aware of. I want to be careful not to force narratives just because I need to fill a column. One of the things I dislike about the way some of the media covers sports betting is the apparent need to have an actionable opinion on every game. Not only an opinion, but one that suggests their audience should place actual money on it. There is never going to be value in every marquee matchup that is actually worth wagering on. The betting markets are pretty dang efficient. There are good reasons to stay away from betting a particular game, and these decisions can be some of the best we make each week.
In this case, I don't want to force a "sell" narrative on a team that I don't think deserves one yet. Things are constantly changing every week, so there certainly may be some valuable information coming our way after the conclusion of Week 6 that will be useful for our future betting process. If there is -- or if there isn't -- I will be the first to tell you.
Early line moves: Week 6
Market move I agree with: The Colts opened +3.5 or +3 against the Jets in Week 6. The number is now +2.5 at the majority of shops, and, despite early-week limits being quite a bit less than sportsbooks will allow later in the week, this is still a pretty significant move. My personal projection for the game is New York -1.3, so for those that were able to snag Indianapolis at +3.5 or +3 already, I definitely think you are holding a bet with positive expected value.
In the end, I'm not too surprised with the opening line after the Jets took it to the Broncos this past Sunday and the Colts fell behind early in New England in the Thursday night game. The slight overreaction, however, isn't worth betting at this point unless a +3 on the Colts side were to pop back up in the market. Keep an eye on it.
Market move I disagree with: The Bears opened -2 in Miami and are currently -3 everywhere in the market. My raw number in this game is Bears -0.8. The bye week for Chicago is one that needs to be accounted for though, so the opener at -2 I think is spot on. It is interesting seeing how quickly market reactions including one team in a game can change just two weeks later.
The Dolphins were only +6.5 in New England in Week 4. This implies the Patriots are roughly a 2.5-point favorite if the game were played in Miami. The Bears are -3 in Miami in Week 6. Now, that Patriots -6.5 line against the Dolphins was too extreme and we bet against it. But this might be pushing too far the other direction after the Dolphins blew a 17-0 halftime lead in Cincinnati.
I haven't jumped in to bet Miami yet. My buy point on this game will be at +3.5 or better. But it was the only early-week move that my numbers disagreed with, so it will be worth watching as the week progresses.
Behind the box score
Game 1
Team A: 220 yards, 2-12 on third down, 19:48 time of possession
Team B: 447 yards, 10-17 on third down, 40:12 time of possession
The Arizona Cardinals beat the 49ers 28-18 in San Francisco this past Sunday despite being outgained by 227 yards, converting just two third downs and possessing the ball for less than half the amount of time the 49ers did. In fact, San Francisco ran 92 plays to Arizona's 49 during the game. Prior to Sunday, the most plays the 49ers had ever run in a losing effort was 86 in a 1996 divisional playoff game loss against the Packers.
So how in the world did the 49ers lose this game to the Cardinals? Five turnovers, another turnover on downs and a missed field goal. Don't overreact to this final score. San Francisco played really well outside of the turnovers. They also gave the Chargers a run for their money in Los Angeles in Week 4. Don't dismiss San Francisco just because Jimmy Garoppolo is out and C.J. Beathard is in. This is still a well-coached squad that will offer betting opportunities going forward.
Game 2
Team A: 264 yards, 57 plays, 4.6 yards per play
Team B: 521 yards, 76 plays, 6.9 yards per play
The Lions beat the Packers 31-23 on Sunday thanks to a plus-three turnover margin and four Mason Crosby missed field goals. Green Bay dominated this game. In fact, the Packers were trailing 24-0 at halftime despite having outgained the Lions in the first half. The spread for the second half opened Green Bay -3 and closed -5.5. This is a massive move for a halftime line in the NFL. In my opinion, this is fairly reliable evidence that just looking at the score of a game -- either after the fact, or at the half -- isn't telling the entire story.
Second-half bets on the Packers won with relative ease. This obviously won't always be the case, but diving into the numbers is just as important for your in-game betting as it is for your betting process from week to week.
Slate standout
New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs continue to prove naysayers -- myself included -- wrong. They still dress the third-worst defense in the NFL each week, but they have done just enough to get by and earn victories, whether they were trailing by 10 in the fourth quarter at Denver or getting outgained by the Jaguars at home.
I promise not to use Kansas City in every weekly standout game that I delve into, but Jacksonville this past week and New England in Week 6 this Sunday are likely matchups between the three best teams in the AFC. Again, we are trying to find out if the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes are for real, and I am still not 100 percent sold.
The Jaguars were a great test for Mahomes, because I still rate them as the best against the pass in the league. He definitely struggled to a degree we had not seen in his previous four games. Mahomes threw for 313 yards on 22-of-38 passing with two interceptions. He hadn't thrown a single interception this season prior to the Jaguars game.
So why am I still not sold on this team? The defense. Blake Bortles and the Jaguars gained 502 yards against the Chiefs. Fortunately for Kansas City, Bortles did Blake Bortles things. He threw four interceptions, including three in the end zone and a pick-six that scored a touchdown for the Chiefs. I will credit the defense for forcing the turnovers and ultimately being the reason they earned the win, but you can't expect to be gifted five turnovers in a game in the manner Bortles did it.
Penalties are also an issue with the Chiefs. They are second-to-last in the league, averaging nine penalties per game. The least penalized team? The Patriots. I wrote about the market overreaction on New England after their loss in Detroit two weeks ago. We bet the Patriots -6.5 that week against the Dolphins as well as +350 to win the AFC. Since that time, New England has cruised to fairly easy covers against the spread in both of their games and the offense that had "major issues" has put up 38 points in each contest.
The current line is New England -3.5, which I think is a fair number at this point (to put into perspective how wild that Dolphins line was two weeks ago though, Miami was only +6.5). If Kansas City is able to go into Foxborough against what appears to be a refocused Patriots team and get the win, I may be willing to concede the Chiefs are a legitimate contender -- despite their defense. I'm excited to find out.