Ultimate 2016 college football betting guide

With the 2016 college football season kicking off Thursday night, fans and sportsbooks are buzzing with excitement. Beyond playoff favorites such as Ohio State, where do the best value bets lie?

Two of ESPN Chalk's college football betting experts, Phil Steele and Will Harris, are here to help. Below is our 2016 college football betting guide, covering the best values among teams to win the College Football Playoff, season win totals, conference titles, games of the year, overvalued and undervalued teams and Heisman Trophy contenders.

If you're looking to wager on college football this season, this is the primer you need to read.

Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise noted.

CFB PickCenter | Top 25 previews | Betting guide: Best title, Heisman bets

Best title bets

Steele

Florida State Seminoles (7-1): I have had a rule throughout the preseason that I will not take a team with odds less than 10-1 to win the national title, but I will go against that rule for one team ... and that team is Florida State. There is not great value in picking a team at 7-1 odds, but they are my pick to win the national title so I have to list them here.

Oklahoma Sooners (10-1): The Sooners haven't finished above No. 15 in the rankings the past four times they've been a top-five preseason team and have, in fact, finished unranked twice in that span. All of the other factors point to the Sooners actually having the best shot at making the playoff. Their offense is loaded with QB Baker Mayfield and RBs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. They have a top-10 offense, defense and special teams, will be favored in all 12 games and do not have to win a conference title game. I will take any of the four playoff teams at 10-1 odds.

TCU Horned Frogs (30-1): I mentioned that Oklahoma has the clearest path to the playoff, and part of the reason is that they play in the Big 12, which does not have any other top-10 teams. However, the Sooners' toughest test is in Fort Worth on Oct. 1. TCU is flying under the radar and has the Big 12's best defense. If the Frogs win that game at home, their path becomes almost as clear as the Sooners'.

Washington Huskies (30-1): The Huskies are my No. 1 surprise team (non-top-10 team that I think can win the title) this season. They could have the best defense in the Pac-12, and last year had true freshmen at QB and RB and were without their playmaker John Ross (injured). All three are back; they're my pick to win the Pac-12.

Iowa Hawkeyes (80-1): The Hawkeyes weren't a dominant team last year, but they went 12-0 and led Michigan State late, basically being one play from the playoff. This year they get all the tough opponents at home with their conference road games against teams that went a combined 10-30 in Big Ten play last season. They have eight starters back on defense including Jim Thorpe Award Winner Desmond King and C.J. Beathard is currently the No. 5 quarterback for the the NFL draft. They could be favored in all 12 games and are 80-1? They were actually at 100-1 earlier this summer when I picked them as a play-on team.

Harris

When we last wrote about national title odds back in January, it was Michigan and LSU at 15-1 that looked like the pick of the litter. Now both have crashed to 8-1, but Michigan still has the most appeal among the favorites.

The offensive line, well-recruited but underdeveloped during the Brady Hoke era, is in full bloom and leads a powerful offense that will blow away a 2015 résumé that saw this bunch rank just 11th in the Big Ten in rushing. Superstars adorn every level of the defense -- that includes the coordinator's chair, from which the blitz-happy Don Brown will turn versatile "linebacker" Jabrill Peppers into a household name.

Our best play outside the favorites back in January was Washington at 40-1. That's now 30-1, but there's no reason to tamp down the enthusiasm for the Huskies. The league's best defense, special teams and coaching staff are complemented by a veteran offensive line and star triplets at the skill positions.

Bob Stoops, Brian Kelly, Nick Saban, Pete Carroll and Urban Meyer (twice) all posted unbeaten or one-loss seasons in their second or third year. Fellow elites Jim Harbaugh and Chris Petersen could certainly follow suit.

Best season win total bets

Steele

Last year in this article I gave out eight season win totals and those selections went 5-2, with one "no bet" (LSU).

There were three over wins in Miami (FL) over 5.5 (won 8 games), San Diego State over 7.5 (won 9) and Bowling Green over 5.5 (won 10). There were two under wins in Colorado State under 7.5 (won 7) and Buffalo under 5.5 (won 5). The losses were Penn State over 7.5 (won 7) and USC over 8.5 (won 8).

Odds from South Point

Cincinnati Bearcats (over 7.5)

Despite myriad injuries last year the Bearcats won seven games last year. They were minus-19 in turnovers, which they should improve upon. Despite their 4-4 mark in the American Conference, they were plus-167 yards per game, which was a league best. They have eight starters back on defense and two quarterbacks with starting experience, are 26-5 at home the past five years and have seven home games. Plus, Cincinnati faces only one team on the road that had a winning record last year. Six of my nine sets of power ratings call for a double-digit win season.

Purdue Boilermakers (under 4.5)

Purdue is the most experienced team in the Big Ten and has 16 returning starters. There is no doubt this is the best team that coach Darrell Hazell has put on the field in his four years at Purdue, during which they are just 2-22 in Big Ten play. Not only do they have just four Big Ten home games (five on road), those home games are versus Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern and Wisconsin. The most winnable Big Ten games are all on the road. The Boilermakers have been outgained by an average of 153 yards per game in Big Ten play under Hazell, so they have some ground to make up and must win five games to beat me here.

TCU Horned Frogs (over 8.5)

Just two years ago TCU was coming off a four-win season and I had them as my No. 1 most improved team and No. 4 surprise team (national title contender) in the country; they just missed making the first-ever playoff. The Frogs are now coming off 12- and 11-win seasons, so this win total of eight is low for me. TCU has been picked as low as fifth or sixth in the Big 12 in some preseason magazines, but I have them second. While they have just three returning starters on offense, I like quarterback Kenny Hill and the replacements at wide receiver. On defense they have eight starters back and I rate them top 20 on both sides of the ball. They face only my 48th-toughest schedule and that road trip to Baylor doesn't seem as daunting as it did two months ago. I have them favored in most games and don't see them as more than a 3-point 'dog in any game this year.

San Diego State Aztecs (over 9) at Westgate

On the surface this looks like a tough number as San Diego State has won just seven, seven and nine games the past three years. On offense they have RB Donnel Pumphrey back and my computer projects the Aztecs to average 240 rushing yards per game this year. They have a top-15 defense, with seven starters back. You can win a lot of games with a solid running game and defense, and I don't have them as a 'dog in a single game this year (couple of toss-ups). I had the Aztecs on this list last year and they look like an even stronger squad this season.

Harris

Utah Utes, over 7.5 wins (-110)

Utah's at-a-glance profile doesn't look like much. In five years of Pac-12 play, the Utes are 20-25 and have finished fifth in a six-team division more often than not. This year's squad is replacing its top two passers and rushers, top three receivers, defensive coordinator, four of the top five tacklers and the best punter in Pac-12 history. But a closer look at the entire scholarship roster 1 through 85 shows a team that's nothing like the one that joined the league in 2011. Utah had Pac-12-caliber players along both lines of scrimmage out of the gate, but lagged far behind in perimeter athletes.

Since joining the league, the program has recruited previously unobtainable talent by the handful, and the rest of the roster has now caught up. Community college transfer Troy Williams will be an upgrade at quarterback and the OL/DL combo might be the league's stoutest. This edition has a great chance to be Kyle Whittingham's best team yet and win the South Division.

Wisconsin Badgers, under 7.5 wins (-160)

From last year's betting guide: "On the surface, new coach Paul Chryst seems a natural fit in Madison, but while he'll field some good teams his tenure will eventually be considered a disappointment. Recruiting will not be what it was under Bret Bielema, Chryst's tendency to lose the close games will follow him from Pitt, and the real decline will begin when the program loses ace defensive coordinator Dave Aranda to a head coaching job or a school willing to pay more than Wisconsin. This year there will be plenty of wins, but an ambitious total of 9.5 leaves no margin for error for "over" backers."

All of that still applies. The Badgers finished the regular season 9-3, then ran their record in one-score games to 3-2 on the year with a 10th win in the Holiday Bowl. That was an improvement over Chryst's 4-10 pace from Pitt, but this year's issue might be finding a close game to get into. Last year's schedule was notably soft; this year's is brutal, with the top three East powers immediately following the nonconference slate, then what may well be the top three in the West up next.

Wisconsin could be staring at a losing record before a more manageable November even arrives. This is a program in gradual decline as the era of Barry Alvarez and the coaches he has mentored draws nearer its end. Fortunately, what Alvarez built will long outlive him, and now even in down periods there's a much higher floor in Madison than ever before.

UNLV Rebels over, 5.5 wins (+140)

UNLV football has had just one winning season since 2000, but second-year coach Tony Sanchez has this program on the rise. Institutional commitment is at an all-time high at UNLV following the hiring of the superstar high school boss, who was 85-5 at local power Bishop Gorman. There, Sanchez was involved in facility-building and logistics on a scale rarely seen at the high school level, and at UNLV he already has made an impact on the Rebels' recruiting, facilities, fundraising, marketing, academic performance and support resources. Just about every area of the program has been improved, and the on-field results will follow quickly.

South Carolina Gamecocks and Maryland Terrapins, under 5 wins (-105)

Two of the worst power conference teams are not on the Westgate board, but are trading at five wins at offshore heavyweights like 5Dimes and Heritage. Each has both a first-year coach and roster that's overmatched by league peers. And each is undergoing a particularly difficult scheme change on one side of the ball and has unsettled leadership on the other. South Carolina has a pretty sweet stadium and Maryland has a ridiculously overqualified special teams coach, but otherwise neither has much reason for optimism the next few years.

Conference title bets

Harris

At this point in the offseason, the futures market has seen enough action to slash many prices from the early numbers and just doesn't have much left to offer. Of the favorites, Clemson at 7-5 has the clearest path to a conference title. This is an outfit with fantastic intangibles, no glaring weaknesses and the best player in the country running the show. With fewer legitimate challengers in the ACC, the Tigers get the nod over Michigan (also 7-5) or Washington (5-2).

Best Games of the Year bets

Steele

The Golden Nugget has posted lines on 100 games for the upcoming season from Sept. 10 through Dec. 10. Below are my five best plays.

Army Black Nights (+11.5) at Navy Midshipmen (Dec. 10)

Army has now lost an amazing 14 in a row in this series, but has come close in four of the past five meetings. Navy has just one win by more than a touchdown in the past five years, with wins by just six, four, seven and four points. Army has more first downs than Navy (76-66) in those four close losses. Last year Army had a 16-11 first down edge, and led the game 17-14 at the half. Navy needed a 50-yard touchdown pass with five minutes and 51 seconds left to pull out a four-point win. This year Army has an unusually high -- for a service academy -- 16 returning starters and ranks No. 35 in my experience chart. Navy has just six returning starters and is No. 127 in my experience chart. I believe Army has a great shot at winning this game outright, and my personal number was Navy -3. Here they are getting over a touchdown more than they should and of these five early plays, this is my favorite one.

Arizona State Sun Devils (+3.5) at Arizona Wildcats (Nov. 25)

My Power Poll has Arizona State No. 37 and Arizona No. 52, so Arizona State is the stronger team and is getting more than a field goal. Last year Arizona finished 7-6 and Arizona State was just 6-7, but in this matchup the Sun Devils rolled to a 31-10 halftime lead and Arizona got a garbage touchdown with 32 seconds left to "only" lose 52-37. Arizona State has won three of the past four overall, and two of the past three in Tucson. The 'dog is 12-5-1 ATS in this rivalry. I will take the rivalry 'dog with the better defense and better team overall getting over a field goal.

Iowa Hawkeyes (+3.5) vs. Michigan Wolverines (Nov. 12)

Iowa was fortunate to go 12-0 last year and wasn't as dominant as its record. I feel this year's Iowa team is stronger overall, with defensive tackles Nathan Bazata and Jaleel Johnson, middle linebacker Josey Jewell and cornerback Desmond King all standouts on defense. Quarterback C.J. Beathard was banged up during Week 3 last year and played at less than 100 percent. Michigan has my No. 5-rated defense and a top-notch offense, but is just 2-5 ATS as an away favorite under Jim Harbaugh. The clincher is Iowa is 12-3 outright in its past 15 home games and their largest loss in that span is by just three points at home -- and here the Hawkeyes are, getting more than a field goal at home.

Texas Longhorns (+8.5) vs. Oklahoma State (Oct. 1)

My No. 1 most improved team is now 46-21-1 ATS during the season the past five years, so I always look for the optimal games to play on that team. Texas is my No. 1 most improved team this year and I rate Texas No. 24 in my Power Poll, while Oklahoma State is No. 34. Texas is getting over a touchdown and has, in my mind, the stronger team. If you are concerned about the site, here's a fact that should put you at ease. The visitor has won the past seven in a row in the series and won those outright by an average of 16 points per game!

Harris

Michigan State Spartans (-3.5) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (Sept. 24)

Early numbers aren't giving defending Big Ten champ Michigan State much love. It's true the Spartans are replacing the best quarterback in school history, his two top targets and a handful of NFL players along the lines of scrimmage. But even if this program winds up behind Michigan and/or Ohio State in the rugged Big Ten East, the product will still be among the nation's best. The Spartans are deep enough to reload in the trenches and come into this year with solid intangibles and few dire question marks.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1) vs. Oregon Ducks (Sept. 17)

The oddsmakers grow more and more circumspect about this team as it becomes increasingly obvious that the Mark Helfrich regime won't match the achievements of the Chip Kelly era. But near-pick 'em matchups with Nebraska, Washington and Utah show there's still value to be had fading this crew. Lincoln is a tough first road date for breaking in a new quarterback, and former Oregon State boss Mike Riley certainly gives his team the edge of familiarity. Every passer Riley and offensive coordinator Danny Langsdorf tutored at Oregon State made major improvement from his first year starting to his second, and Tommy Armstrong will not be a sudden exception. The Huskers are the FPI favorite in the Big Ten West, and we agree.

Vanderbilt Commodores (+14.5) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (Nov. 26)

Championship-level success in this sport requires not only talented players and coaches, but full team buy-in and belief, and -- beyond the locker room -- the alignment of everyone in the organization. For all his recruiting and roster-building success, we're not sold that Butch Jones has cemented the big-picture necessities. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs and linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin are leaders to build around, but meeting this year's lofty expectations will require everyone in the boat. We are very confident this all ends in disappointment, but still uncertain what the right spots will be. An early favorite is the regular-season finale at improved Vanderbilt, where the Vols will likely either be peeking ahead to Atlanta or distraught at their failure to get there.

Best Heisman bets

Steele

My pick to win the Heisman Trophy is Deshaun Watson of Clemson, but he is also the favorite at 9-2, so there's not a lot of value there. I will give you my dark horses to win.

Note: Only players who are at least 10-1 are considered.

Dalvin Cook, Florida State Seminoles (10-1)

The Heisman is an award for the best player in college football, but in most cases he must play for a team that is among the best. Cook plays for Florida State, and the Seminoles host Clemson this year on Oct. 29. A win in that head-to-head meeting should put him ahead of Watson in the race. When I talked to coach Jimbo Fisher this spring, he told me Cook was one of the hardest workers on the team. He averaged 7.4 yards per carry and rushed for 1,691 yards, adding 244 receiving yards. Florida State has a veteran offensive line (74 career starts), which is a nice group to run behind.

Jalen Hurd, Tennessee Volunteers (50-1)

Tennessee could be favored in every game this season, except against Alabama. The Vols get the Tide at home, led in Tuscaloosa last year with three minutes left and have the much more experienced team. Hurd will remind you of last year's Heisman winner, Derrick Henry, as he is 6-foot-4, 240 pounds and rushed for 1,288 yards behind an average offensive line. The line goes from two returning starters last year to four this year, and should open bigger holes for him.

Damien Harris, Alabama Crimson Tide (200-1)

If you want to pick a player who is not on the board of odds to win the Heisman, you have to ask what the odds are. I asked, and the odds on Alabama running back Harris are 200-1. He was the No. 2 running back out of the spring behind Bo Scarbrough, who is on the odds list at 25-1 right now. I think that Harris will eventually win the job, and that makes him a real dark horse. Alabama is No. 1 in my Power Poll talent-wise this year, and the feature Tide running back is always a threat to win it all.

Harris

Our field of study entails programs, teams, coaches and players, not polls and voters, so we claim no expertise whatsoever in predicting individual awards, playoff berths and other stuff decided not on the field but at the ballot box. But somehow we got lucky and nailed Derrick Henry winning the Heisman at 25-1 last year, so we've been invited to follow up with another shot at it.

The favorite is so total-package awesome that it's hard not to pick Deshaun Watson, even at a measly 9-2. But chalk isn't the way to go in Heisman futures, so we'll take do-everything Houston pivot Greg Ward Jr. at 50-1, who might have to put up really obnoxious numbers this year to make up for a very leaky pass defense that will keep him supplied with both possessions and the need to do something with them.

Which teams are overvalued and which are undervalued?

Steele

To determine this category I used the website preseason.stassen.com, which lists where all the magazines and preseason websites picked teams for this year. I will take a look at the teams where my magazine differed the most from the rest of the previews.

Overvalued

Arizona Wildcats: The Wildcats have been picked third in the Pac-12 South by two very respected sources in USA Today and ESPN The Magazine. I project them fifth in the South behind UCLA, USC, Utah and Arizona State.

West Virginia Mountaineers: The Mountaineers had a big bowl game and have been picked fourth in the Big 12 by ESPN The Magazine and fifth by Athlon and Lindy's. I have them tied for seventh in the Big 12, which is considerably lower.

Undervalued

TCU Horned Frogs: TCU is one of my top plays for odds to win the national title, and I have them picked second in the Big 12. The Frogs have been picked as low as sixth in the Big 12 by other magazines and have an average of about fourth in the conference.

Kansas State Wildcats: I learned my lesson long ago with crafty head coach Bill Snyder. I look at wherever my computer projects them to finish and pick them a couple of spots higher. Last year he brought in only one juco player, but this year has added his usual solid number of jucos. Kansas State is generally picked eighth or ninth in the Big 12, but I have them sixth, and that makes them underrated.

Texas Longhorns: The Longhorns have disappointed a large number of folks their first two years with Charlie Strong, having a combined record of 11-14. This year I have the Horns my No. 1 most improved team in the country, and feel they could be a contender in the Big 12. They are generally picked from fifth to eighth place by the other guys.

Cincinnati Bearcats: The Bearcats are my surprise pick to win their division in the American this year. They had the best yards per game in league play, but had myriad things go wrong last year. After being the pick to win the American last year, they are now picked third or fourth by most and will be a bounce-back team.