Ultimate 2015 college football betting guide

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With the 2015 college football season kicking off Thursday night, fans and sportsbooks are buzzing with excitement. Beyond playoff favorites such as Ohio State, where do the best value bets lie?

Two of ESPN Chalk's college football betting experts, Phil Steele and Will Harris, are here to help. Below is our 2015 college football betting guide, covering the best values among teams to win the College Football Playoff, season win totals, conference titles, games of the year, overvalued and undervalued teams and Heisman Trophy contenders.

If you're looking to wager on college football this season, this is the primer you need to read.

Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise noted.

Best bet to win the College Football Playoff?

Steele: As I expected, my top four picks to make the playoff are the top four teams according to the odds. Ohio State is 5-2, TCU is 6-1, Alabama is 7-1 and USC is 20-1. You are not getting a lot of bang for your buck, but those are the teams that have the best chance of winning the title.

Which teams represent the best value bets? Here are six intriguing ones:

Stanford Cardinal (30-1): I have a great track record with surprise teams, and Stanford is my No. 1 surprise team for 2015. I expect the Cardinal to win the Pac-12 North and play in the conference title game, which puts them just one step from the playoff. The Cardinal opened up closer to 100-1, but the line has come down to 30-1; regardless, I still think there is value in this number. They play only one team that had a winning record on the road in 2014, and all their toughest games besides USC are at home, where David Shaw is 24-3.

Note: I also really like my No. 2 surprise team, LSU, but its odds are just 20-1, so the Tigers don't offer as much value.

Florida State Seminoles (30-1): Florida State plays in the ACC and has not lost a regular-season game the past two years. I think the Seminoles' defense will play with much more intensity this year, and the offense is in good shape. They are the most talented team in the league and capable of running the table again. They are again the favorite to win the conference, and this year's team could be just as good, if not better, than the 2014 version.

Georgia Bulldogs (30-1): If a team is in the SEC title game, it is one step from the playoff, and any team in the playoff can win it all. The last time Georgia was in the SEC title game, in 2012, it came up just a few yards and a few seconds short of upsetting eventual national champ Alabama. The Bulldogs lost seven total games over the past two years as favorites, but if they play up to their talent level each week, they could win it all and have some solid value at 30-1.

Arizona State Sun Devils (200-1): I think USC, UCLA and Arizona State all have a solid shot at winning the Pac-12 South, and hence the Pac-12. USC is priced at 20-1, UCLA at 30-1 and Arizona State is at 200-1. Can you guess which of these teams offers the best value? ASU was a young team on defense last season with just two returning starters, but this year the Sun Devils have nine returning starters on D. And even though their QB got banged up and missed some time last season in early November, they were in the playoff conversation. Coach Todd Graham told me he thinks this is his best team yet in Tempe.

Wisconsin Badgers (75-1): If the Badgers upset Alabama to open the season, these odds will look incredibly cheap. Even if Wisconsin loses, the Badgers could be favored in all their remaining regular-season games as they have more talent than all the teams in the Big Ten West and avoid the top four teams in the East. If the Badgers make the Big Ten title game, they will be just one step from the playoff.

Virginia Tech Hokies (100-1) and Miami (FL) Hurricanes (200-1): These are the two teams I think will battle it out for the ACC Coastal division title and a berth in the ACC title game. Virginia Tech avoids Florida State, Clemson and Louisville out of the Atlantic, and that is why the Hokies are 100-1. They are my pick to win the Coastal. Elsewhere, Miami is my most improved team. That title went to TCU last year, and the Frogs went from going 4-8 in 2013 to last year being No. 3 in the playoff seeding with one week to go. Both Virginia Tech and Miami offer solid value.

Harris:

Michigan State Spartans (20-1): The team atop my 2015 power ratings sits tied for seventh in the betting order to win the national championship. Michigan State is as strong as anyone in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Spartans have a preseason All-American under center in Connor Cook, 13 upperclassmen receivers with game experience and one of the game's best fullbacks. Four underclassmen tailbacks will play as Sparty tries to replace workhorse Jeremy Langford, but all are top talents. And while it's clear the defense would be better off had longtime coordinator Pat Narduzzi not left for Pittsburgh, head coach Mark Dantonio is the true architect of that unit and the readiness for promotion of the new co-coordinators is a tribute to the overall strength of the program. It's also worth noting the departure of the top lieutenant on the head coach's side of the ball is also an issue facing league rival Ohio State.

Michigan State does have to travel to Columbus, but the Spartans are tighter, hungrier and, all things considered, the stronger overall team. The price of 20-1 would be tempting for a top-10 dark horse, but this team is the outright favorite in my book.

Best season win total bets

Steele: If you are a regular reader of ESPN Insider, you might have seen my June article that covered this. Those win totals had great value and naturally most have had large moves since I released them. Here are my updated win total picks.

Bowling Green Falcons, over 5.5 wins (-150): The Falcons won 10 games in 2013. Last season they went through a drastic switch, going from a defensive-based team to one driven by a fast-paced, no-huddle attack. In Week 1, they lost returning starting QB Matt Johnson. They still managed to wrap up the MAC East title and then rested some players for the MAC title game, but after starting 7-3, the Falcons dropped those two games at the end. Bowling Green gets Johnson back and has both my No. 1-rated offensive line and No. 1 set of receivers in the MAC, among 10 starters on that side of the ball. The defense should be improved in the second year under head coach Dino Babers. And 5.5 wins? That number is really cheap.

LSU Tigers, over 8.5 wins (-120): Last season, LSU was replacing a 3,000-yard passer, two 1,000-yard receivers and a 1,000-yard rusher, and it had just 12 returning starters. This season, the Tigers have 15 returning starters, including all their top skill players. They lost 18 players to the NFL draft in 2013 and 2014 combined, including a ton of underclassmen, but in 2015 had just four players drafted (only one in the first two rounds) and only one underclassman left early. I think LSU is capable of double-digit wins this season, like the Tigers had four of the previous five seasons. They are my No. 2 surprise team.

Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes, over 7 wins (+120): The line is not quite as cheap as when it opened up at 5.5, but remember seven wins is a push and you're getting plus money. This is Al Golden's fifth season at the helm, and he has a veteran QB in Brad Kaaya who last year played well as a true freshman (and wasn't even in for the spring in 2014). Miami is my pick for most improved team in the country. I am expecting double-digit wins this year and for the Canes to contend for the ACC Coastal title. Their defense will surprise a lot of folks this year and has a chance to be a top-15 unit. Plus, they play only one ranked team on the road this season.

USC Trojans, over 9 wins (-140): I expect double-digit wins from the Trojans and a berth in the playoff. Of the four teams I have in the playoff, they have the cheapest win total at nine. QB Cody Kessler has a great supporting cast, including a veteran top-notch offensive line. The Trojans have the most depth they've had since the sanctions hit, and that should mean less wilting in the fourth quarter, which cost them some wins last season as they lost games on a Hail Mary and another on a TD with seven seconds left.

Virginia Tech Hokies, over 8 wins (-130): Keep in mind that eight wins would be a push and you get your money back. To lose this bet, Virginia Tech would have to lose five regular-season games. They have my fifth-rated defense and a much-improved offense. Plus, they avoid Florida State, Clemson and Louisville out of the Atlantic and get a bye the week before they play Georgia Tech, allowing them extra time to prep for the Yellow Jackets' option offense. I have the Hokies at 10 wins. Their fourth game of the season, versus East Carolina, originally looked tricky, but the Pirates just lost their QB for the season. I think nine wins is the worst-case scenario.

Harris: Michigan State naturally earns an endorsement here at over 9.5 wins (-145). The Spartans will be favored in every game, save the trip to Columbus. Another one of our picks to earn a conference championship, Arizona State, clocks in at 7.5 (over is -145). (More on the Sun Devils and why we like the over below.)

The top under plays from the Westgate's small slate of season win totals are two squads with offensive issues. Wisconsin has a soft schedule, but 9.5 wins is still too steep. Joel Stave has won three-quarter of his games as a starting quarterback, and Corey Clement is a fine No. 1 back, but the Badgers are lacking at receiver and aren't sporting their usual depth behind Clement at tailback. More importantly, the offensive line is not up to the program's usual standards in terms of either experience or talent.

On the surface, new coach Paul Chryst seems a natural fit in Madison, but while he'll field some good teams, his tenure will eventually be considered a disappointment. Recruiting will not be what it was under Bret Bielema -- Chryst's tendency to lose the close games will follow him from Pitt -- and the real decline will begin when the program loses ace defensive coordinator Dave Aranda to a head-coaching job or a school willing to pay more than Wisconsin. This season, there will be plenty of wins, but an ambitious total of 9.5 leaves no margin for error for over backers.

Wisconsin's offensive woes pale in comparison to Florida's. We loved Jim McElwain as a playcaller in Fresno and Tuscaloosa, but he has assembled a weak staff by SEC standards and the offensive personnel is among the worst in the league. The Gators lack proven performers at all the skill positions, but the real issue is an offensive line that features just three upperclassmen and 10 career starts. Will Muschamp's post-firing boast that he left a "deep and talented roster" didn't extend to the offensive line, which will be among the worst in school history.

Even with four near-gimmes on the schedule, a win total of seven (over -130) is too tall for a team that will play solid defense but must adjust to a new staff and will struggle to crack 300 yards per game in SEC play.

Conference title bets

Steele: What are the best value bets as far as conference titles? Last season, I pegged one long shot, and that was Arizona at 30-1. And while the Wildcats did not win the Pac-12, at least they got to the conference title game.

This year, I will give you my best value bets for each conference. These are teams I believe have a much better chance than the odds give them. If a team is 8-1, that means they have a 12.5 percent chance of winning the conference, but I would have their odds at 25 percent (4-1) or better.

Big Ten: Wisconsin Badgers, Michigan State Spartans (8-1) -- Both could be favored in all their Big Ten games except against Ohio State.

ACC: Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes, Louisville Cardinals (12-1) -- There are no dominant teams in the ACC; each has a puncher's chance.

SEC: LSU Tigers (8-1) -- The Tigers will be a complete team if QB Harris plays as I expect.

MAC: Akron Zips (10-1) -- I was torn on the East winner, so 10-1 odds are too high.

MWC: Utah State Aggies (8-1) -- The Aggies get Boise State at home and have Matt Wells as coach.

Harris: Ohio State received every first-place vote at Big Ten media days and followed that up by becoming the first team in the history of the AP poll to be tabbed a unanimous preseason No. 1. That unprecedented media consensus has the Buckeyes as 1-5 odds-on favorites to win the Big Ten, and that kind of price creates value elsewhere. At 8-1, Michigan State's Big Ten futures number is 45 percent of its national title price, an almost unheard of ratio that demands investment in the conference race.

Two other conference futures that stand out are also priced at 8-1. Arizona State fields Todd Graham's best team yet. I have faith in new quarterback Mike Bercovici and am impressed with the upgraded athleticism of the defense, the array of playmakers at the offensive skill positions and especially the championship intangibles. This is one of the closest and most unified teams I've seen in recent years, with both vertical and horizontal leadership and incredible confidence and belief to go along with the chemistry. The Sun Devils are my favorite in a tough Pac-12 and a definite national contender.

Another team with outstanding intangibles that clocks in at 8-1 is 2013 Conference USA champ Rice. Western Kentucky's sixth-year senior Brandon Doughty deservedly gets most of the league's quarterback headlines, but Driphus Jackson is right behind him, though gifted with a different skill set. Rice doesn't have many stars, but there are all-conference-caliber performers in every position group and a good mix of senior leadership and younger talent. The Owls avoid Marshall and get divisional favorites WKU and Louisiana Tech at home.

Best bets for games of the year

Steele: I wrote a June article on this subject where you can find my five marquee game best bets for the upcoming season.

Here are few additional plays:

Oklahoma State Cowboys +9.5 at Baylor Bears (Nov. 21): Oklahoma State would have been my pick for most improved team in the country if it hadn't earned a second chance at a punt return against Oklahoma and scored a punt-return touchdown in the final minute last season. The Cowboys would have finished 5-7 and been eligible for that list. The last time Baylor traveled to Stillwater, in 2013, the Bears were No. 3 in the country, unbeaten and favored by eight points, but OSU beat them 49-17. In the past two seasons, Baylor has outgained Big 12 foes at home by an average of 642-335 yards.

In their Big 12 road games against the seven other conference teams that have been to a bowl in that span, the Bears have actually been outgained. Baylor will have just faced Kansas State (Nov. 5) and Oklahoma (Nov. 14) and will have a huge game on Nov. 27 at TCU that could determine the Big 12 title. Get this game while the home underdog is actually getting more than a touchdown.

Michigan State Spartans +13 at Ohio State Buckeyes (Nov. 21): I picked Ohio State No. 1 in the country and have it written down in pen in my brackets for the playoff. I have the Buckeyes going 12-0, but this is just too many points. I had Ohio State a seven-point favorite, and the Buckeyes are laying close to two TDs. Ohio State is now the hunted rather than the hunter. It will be playing with the pressure of staying unbeaten and winning the title. Michigan State could very well come in here unbeaten as well and ranked as high as No. 3 in the country. Last year, Michigan State was -4 at home (Ohio State had underdog mentality), and now they are getting two TDs with both teams returning 14 starters. The Spartans have my No. 1-rated offensive line and No. 2-rated defensive line in the country along with a veteran QB.

Harris: Here is an amazing stat: Dating back to November 2011, Michigan State has been an underdog 11 times. The Spartans are 7-4 in those games straight up, including knocking off the Nos. 2, 4 and 5 teams in the country. One of those was a Big Ten title game upset of Ohio State, which kept the Buckeyes from the title game. MSU is 10-1 in those games with three of its four losses by four points or fewer. Plus, there have been four consecutive upsets in this series.

Michigan State Spartans -3 vs. Oregon Ducks: Two of the Ducks' key advantages in last year's game, Marcus Mariota and Autzen Stadium, are off the table in this matchup. More on Oregon below and why this year's Ducks team also can't count on a third key component of last season's success.

Minnesota Golden Gophers +7.5 vs. Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers' deficiencies are outlined above, and we expect Paul Chryst's first team to surrender both Paul Bunyan's Axe and the Big Ten West crown to the Gophers this year. Minnesota's defense, special teams and offensive line are Jerry Kill's best yet, and the running game has the pieces to thrive even without David Cobb. Tight end Maxx Williams will be missed, but the program's success to date has been built without much contribution from a passing game that hasn't yet cracked 170 yards per game in Kill's four years with the Gophers. Minnesota catches Iowa and Northwestern struggling, while Wisconsin and Nebraska break in new coaches. This is the Gophers' time in the West. They are poised to reclaim the sport's coolest trophy for the first time in a dozen years.

Best Heisman bets

Note: Odds from Bovada

Steele:

Cody Kessler, USC Trojans (12-1): Last season, I went with the favorite to win the Heisman, and this year I'm going with some good value. My pick to win the Heisman is Cody Kessler. In 2014, Cody had one of the strongest seasons of any QB but did not get noticed. He threw for 3,826 yards, completed 70 percent of his passes and had 39 TDs to just five interceptions. USC has a lot more depth this year, and he operates behind my No. 2-rated offensive line with my No. 11 set of receivers to throw to. He is priced at the same odds as Auburn's Jeremy Johnson.

Leonard Fournette, LSU (12-1): This should be the year of the RB since 2015 ends in the number five, right? Or perhaps Ezekiel Elliot has the best shot as an Ohio State RB seems to win the Heisman every 20 years, including 1955, 1975 and 1995. I would have him here but the odds are short at 5-1, so I went with the stronger odds of Fournette at 12-1. While Elliot will split some votes with whomever emerges as Ohio State's starting QB, Fournette should come into his own as a sophomore down in Baton Rouge. He is running behind a veteran offensive line, and a stronger passing game should open up holes. I have LSU as my No. 2 surprise team, so the team-success factor should be there as well.

Seth Russell, Baylor Bears (33-1): I give Russell a better shot at the Heisman than the equally experienced Jeremy Johnson, and yet Johnson gets about three times the value. Baylor has a plug-and-play offense that Russell knows inside and out (it's his fourth year in offense). Plus, he has incredible speed at WR to work with, is mobile with 4.6 40-yard speed and adds that dimension to the Bears' otherwise dangerous offense. Russell could very well lead the nation in passing this year.

Brad Kaaya, Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes (66-1): I was impressed with Kaaya as a true freshman last season, and when I look at Miami's schedule this year, it has a clear shot at double-digit wins and contending for the ACC title. At 66-1 odds, Kaaya is well worth a look as I think he will be even better as a sophomore, especially because he missed the spring last year.

Harris: Much of the SEC preseason discussion has centered on whether Georgia's Nick Chubb or LSU's Fournette is the league's top back. Chubb was the SEC's best running back in 2014, and we like Fournette to earn that distinction as a junior in 2016. Each is listed at 12-1 to win the Heisman, but at more than twice that rate we'll go with Alabama's Derrick Henry, priced at 25-1 and our pick to be the league's best back this season.

Henry has had a tremendous offseason, and he is poised for a heavy workload given the youth at quarterback and receiver and the lack of running back depth behind second-stringer Kenyon Drake. Nick Saban has always preferred to give three backs plenty of snaps, even in his pre-Alabama days, but this year's circumstances will force the Tide to lean on Henry as the offensive bell cow. He is positioned to earn the highest percentage of carries of any running back in Saban's 20 seasons as a college head coach.

Which teams are overvalued and which are undervalued?

Steele:

Overvalued: Clemson

I like the Tigers this year, as I list them as a contender in the ACC Atlantic, and they are my No. 9 surprise team (No. 17 overall in my ratings). I do think they are a little overvalued at the start of the year. They are the media's pick to win the ACC, and looking at the Westgate early-season lines, I see they are not an underdog in any game this season. That is surprising because the win total for Clemson this year is at 9.5.

Clemson has everything the average fan covets: a dynamic QB, its top rusher and all of their top receivers back from last year and coming off a 40-6 win over Oklahoma in the bowl. The negatives are that QB Deshaun Watson is often injured and there is a big drop-off to his backup. They also had the best defense in college football last year but had 11 players from that unit in NFL camps at the start of August. They are not as deep on that side this season. They also have six games on the schedule in which I have them favored by 3-or-less, pick' em or an underdog.

Undervalued: Oklahoma State

My No. 1 most improved team in 2014 was TCU, which went from 4-8 to almost making the playoff. Had Oklahoma State been eligible for that list, they would've been No. 1 for 2015. A check of their schedule has them getting the other three main contenders for the Big 12 title (TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma) all at home in November. They are a much more experienced team and in the last five years have won 11, 12 and 10 games, but they are not even ranked to start off the 2015 season.

Harris:

Any discussion of which teams are over or underrated has to start with the question of who is doing the rating. The answer usually involves polls and point spreads, and those two metrics often disagree.

Overrated by the polls?

Oregon is an easy choice. In addition to losing the best player in school history, the Ducks lose three-fourths of a ball-hawking secondary. That group -- along with some good fortune in terms of percentage of fumbles recovered -- created a nifty turnover margin that bailed out a weak defense that allowed opponents to zoom up and down the field all year, ranking 82nd in total defense and 100th in first downs allowed.

The oddsmakers aren't as impressed. The Ducks have been favored in 44 straight games, yet the early lines have them installed as underdogs twice this season. Oregon has laid Colorado 39 and 32.5 points the past two years, yet gives just 15 this year. And the season win total on an outfit that has won 10 games for seven straight seasons is just 9.5 -- with the under favored.

The oddsmakers are a lot sharper than the pollsters, so finding a team they overvalue is a tougher exercise. We'll suggest the Duke Blue Devils, a team coming off the best two-year win total in school history now sports a new quarterback plus running backs and wide receiver groups with just one player each with starting experience. The Blue Devils have seen nearly a quarter of their scholarship players miss time with injury in camp. It could be a step back for a team that the early lines have pegged as a favorite in most of its games.

Underrated by the oddsmakers? Our choice is the aforementioned Minnesota, who is an early home 'dog in three games, a pick' em at Northwestern and a four-touchdown underdog to an Ohio State squad that needed all four quarters to subdue the Gophers last year. Most shops have posted a season win total around six wins for a team that has won eight games two years running and has an even better squad this year.

Underrated by the pollsters are two unranked ACC teams that will contend for the league title, Virginia Tech and Louisville. Florida State, Clemson and Georgia Tech are ranked, and we'd take either of these two against over any of that ranked trio. The Hokies are a complete team with an offensive line that has boosted its experience and attitude and will perform much better than it did a year ago. The Cardinals must lean on the defense while its own offensive line comes around, but that D is super stout, and we have faith Bobby Petrino will find a way to manufacture some offense.