With the college football season arriving soon, it's time to take a look at the season win totals for each team. If nothing else, there is value in looking at over/unders as a way to preview the season and determine which teams enter the year with the highest expectations.
But you likely aren't reading this column for a simple preview of the season. You are looking for insight into where the betting value lies.
With the help of ESPN's Football Power Index, we can break down which teams could over- or underachieve most. Although FPI was not originally designed to beat Vegas, its preseason win totals have been proved to be fairly accurate.
Last season, FPI's preseason projected win totals were within one win of the actual win totals for more than a third of FBS teams and within two wins for nearly two-thirds of teams. That might not sound like a lot, but if you had bet every over/under based on FPI's win totals, you would have been correct 57 percent of the time (excluding pushes), including 63 percent when FPI and Vegas differed by at least half a win.
This is only one season's worth of data (so take it with a grain of salt), but below you will find six Power 5 teams with the most betting value according to difference between FPI and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook's given over/under.
Take the over
Westgate over/under: 8 wins
FPI projection: 9.3 wins
The Cowboys return 17 starters, including quarterback Mason Rudolph, to a team that won 10 games last season. FPI again expects the Pokes to smash preseason expectations and win an average of 9.3 games before bowl season. In addition to returning the most experienced team in the Big 12, Oklahoma State is expected to play the conference's second-easiest schedule, according to FPI. That schedule sets up well at the beginning of the season, so there is a decent chance (FPI says 80 percent likely) Oklahoma State reaches eight wins before its 11th game.
Westgate O/U: 6
FPI projection: 7.1
Coach Rich Rodriguez has averaged 7.5 regular-season wins in his four years at Arizona. That's about in line with FPI's projection for the Wildcats (7.2 wins) entering the 2016 season. Two-year starter Anu Solomon is reportedly in the midst of a quarterback competition, but whoever wins the job will have plenty of talent to work with on one of the top projected offenses in the Pac-12. The Wildcats' defense must improve, but a seven-win season is certainly not out of the realm of possibility for a team that won 10 games and made the Pac-12 championship game two years ago.
Westgate O/U: 7.5
FPI projection: 8.3
The Trojans are projected to play the toughest schedule in the nation, according to FPI, which makes them one of the biggest wild cards entering the season. On paper, USC has a lot of losable games, including a neutral-site matchup with Alabama in Week 1 and road games against UCLA, Stanford and Washington in conference play. Despite the tough schedule, FPI projects that USC will win an average of 8.3 games this season and has a 71 percent chance to hit Westgate's over. With players such as JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adoree' Jackson and Zach Banner returning, the Trojans will simply be more talented than most teams on their schedule. That's not to say that USC won't lose a few, but it's unlikely it will lose every difficult game on its schedule.
Take the under
Westgate O/U: 9
FPI projection: 7.4
TCU has won at least 10 regular-season games in each of the past two seasons, so taking the over appears to be a safe bet, especially when factoring in the number of defensive players returning from injury. But it's easy to forget that coach Gary Patterson is tasked with replacing his leading passer (Trevone Boykin), receiver (Josh Doctson) and rusher (Aaron Green) from a season ago. Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill will take over at quarterback for Boykin, but it's asking a lot for him to seamlessly replace TCU's all-time leader in passing yards. The Big 12 should be tightly packed, so TCU's road games against West Virginia, Baylor and Texas will be difficult. FPI projects that TCU will win an average of 7.4 games and gives it a 77 percent chance to win fewer than nine.
Westgate O/U: 7.5
FPI projection: 6.4
Like TCU, Utah is tasked with replacing its leading passer (Travis Wilson), rusher (Devontae Booker) and receiver (Britain Covey) from a 10-win team a season ago. Unlike TCU, however, the Utes' quarterback situation remains in flux with Washington transfer Troy Williams the favorite to win the job. Looking at Utah's schedule, there are very few "slam-dunk" wins. Besides Southern Utah in Week 1, FPI gives the Utes at least a 30 percent chance to lose in each of their remaining 11 games. The result? An average projection of 6.4 wins with a 76 percent chance to hit the under.
Westgate O/U: 6
FPI projection: 4.9
It is never a good idea to bet against coach Bill Snyder, especially when he enters the season with few to no expectations, but given Kansas State's inexperience and brutal schedule, it could be tough for the Wildcats to reach bowl eligibility. According to FPI, Kansas State has less than a 20 percent chance to win six games this season -- at Stanford, at West Virginia, at Oklahoma, vs. Oklahoma State, at Baylor and at TCU. If the Wildcats win one of those games, they would still have to win five of their remaining six to become bowl eligible.
That's a lot of ask for Snyder's team after a 6-7 record in 2015. Although K-State should be a lot healthier at quarterback than last season, it is still are tasked with maneuvering one of the most difficult road schedules in the country. FPI projects that Kansas State finishes with an average of 4.9 wins and gives it only a 33 percent chance to win six games and push.