After an active few months of debate and dissection, draft week has (finally) arrived.
What are college coaches expecting from some of the best players they coached and coached against? Here are thoughts on Jadeveon Clowney, Johnny Manziel and the rest of the top 10 in Todd McShay’s Mock Draft 6.0.
1. DE Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina
Outside of Johnny Football, there is no draft prospect whom college coaches are talking about more than Clowney. And that’s especially the case in SEC country. Opponents were terrorized by Clowney for a couple of years, and then he had limited impact as a junior. Speculation as to why has been bandied about for months, including by the college coaching world.
Was Clowney holding back? Will that top gear return this fall? Was it simply that he got worn down by constant double- and triple-team blocks? College coaches are mostly of the opinion that the 2012 version of Clowney will be back -- and then some.
Coach No. 1: “If [the Texans] don’t take him, someone will get fired. They can’t take a chance on a quarterback with him out there.”
This was as strong as I heard this sentiment, though I heard something to this effect from a number of those in the college game. Some coaches I talked to believe that, after a cheap shot in South Carolina’s opener, Clowney protected himself and his draft status. “I don’t blame him either,” said a coach.
Coach No. 2: “I don’t get that [the attitude narrative]. He played hard every time we played him. We had to know where he was all the time.”
One thing that doesn’t seem to be mentioned enough is how many times South Carolina opponents intentionally ran plays away from Clowney -- or told the QB to quickly get rid of the ball -- to further negate Clowney’s pass-rush impact. With months to prepare, North Carolina provided a pretty nice blueprint for slowing Clowney, and other teams followed it pretty well.
Think of it this way: Can NFL teams really scheme for Clowney? It seems unlikely, especially if the Texans -- who have J.J. Watt on the other side -- take him.
Coach No. 3: “There’s no way they’ll stand him up.”
I had a coach tell me this around the time of Clowney’s pro day, when he ran some linebacker drills. But I’ve been told by those familiar with his workouts in Charlotte, North Carolina, that, for all his pure athleticism, Clowney’s agility and lateral movement will require some work.
Remember that it took Clowney more than a year to become anything at the college level other than a straight-line rusher, so some teaching will surely take place regardless of where he goes. But that’s the case with most prospects, right?
2. OT Greg Robinson, Auburn
I haven’t heard a lot of chatter about Robinson outside our draft analysts, who absolutely love him.
That’s a good thing. The relative silence suggests a strong prospect, considering how much everyone has been picked apart. (Teddy Bridgewater is raising his hand.)
Robinson likely would have stacked up well even in last year’s tackle-heavy class. If he’s not the first offensive tackle off the board, I would be surprised -- though Matthews was once under consideration for this honor.
3. WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney: “I told the Rams [who are picking second], ‘If you don’t take him, he’s the kind of player who will make you regret it.’ He’s so smooth in everything he does.”
Swinney has a clear bias for his former player, but he’s putting himself out there to teams on Watkins’ behalf. Swinney believes Watkins can have an impact as a No. 1 receiver and a return man.
As far as the Rams go, however, they do pick at No. 13 and a prospect like Odell Beckham Jr. or Marqise Lee should be there. A tackle to help protect Sam Bradford makes a ton of sense. Or are they interested in the big gamble of taking Manziel?
Coach No. 1: “What happened to him [Watkins] two years ago?”
I didn’t have much of an answer when a coach asked me this. Clemson’s coaches have hinted that Watkins wasn’t healthy as a sophomore, when he saw his production drop by 700 yards and nine TDs. Others have said he was simply passed by DeAndre Hopkins while Watkins served an early-season suspension. Either way, it was an odd dip that at least gives teams pause.
Actually, it’s difficult to find prospects who didn’t suffer some sort of production slip during their college careers. At least Watkins had a bounce-back season (1,219 yards, 12 TDs) as opposed to someone like Lee, whose stock has slipped a little bit because of his final college year.
4. QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
There’s no more polarizing player in the draft because there’s no more unpredictable player in the draft.
Coach No. 1: “You kidding me? I want that guy on my team.”
You’ve heard all the Doug Flutie-type comparisons. You know about Manziel’s playmaking ability. You know his penchant to frustrate other teams (and his own team, sometimes).
It’s not surprising, but NFL franchises have had a lot of questions for the A&M staff. The Aggies tell NFL teams they are getting a once-in-a-generation playmaker who is driven by an unmatched competitive drive. Coach Kevin Sumlin has often said he has never coached a player with more of a fire than Manziel.
But how will Manziel deal with the daily job as a pro? That’s the rub. A&M coaches have been honest in saying that Manziel can sometimes be difficult, a bit of an enigma from day to day. “We wondered every day what kind of mood he would be in when he showed up for practice,” one person close to the program told me this spring. “You just had to wait and see.”
Is that something that carries over to pro ball? Is it something that evolves as Manziel matures? Does he mature? That goes back to his unpredictability. It could really work out for the buyer. But it could also be a belly-up decision that haunts the team that takes him too early. Frankly, it’s a guessing game for even those who know him well.
Coach No. 2: “[He’s a] huge risk. If you watched those last two games, it makes you wonder.”
LSU and Missouri had some NFL-type personnel on defense, and both teams really locked down Manziel, or at least cut off his running lanes with active play from their ends.
It sounds nitpicky, maybe, but Manziel also seemed to struggle when the weather cooled. How do you think that will work when the NFL season extends into December and January and is played in places much colder than drizzly Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and Columbia, Missouri?
If Manziel goes to Cleveland, Minnesota or anywhere that plays in a cold-weather division, it has to be somewhat of a concern.
Coach No. 3: “You can’t just look at his arm. You’re getting a lot more than an arm with him.”
I’ll preface this by saying I think his arm is quite good for his size. Beyond that, is the statement true? There were a few examples from his two college years when teams were able to take away his legs. In those LSU and Missouri losses, especially against LSU, he did not properly respond with his arm.
There will be weeks when Manziel will have to win in the NFL with his arm. Is he there? Can he get there?
5. LB Khalil Mack, Buffalo
Once UCLA’s Anthony Barr was in this slot as a pass-rushing, active outside linebacker. Then Mack emerged. Some think he could even go No. 1, passing Clowney and the others.
Coach No. 1: “I don’t get it with him. I don’t see it.”
I talked to this coach just after the rumors of Mack going No. 1 started to surface. The coach, looking at me with wide eyes, was blown away.
He thought using the No. 1 pick on Mack over Clowney would be outrageous. Then his phone rang and we didn’t return to Mack, but he had made his feelings known in that short time. He thought Mack could be marginalized with an intelligent offensive scheme.
Coach No. 2: “If I ran a 3-4, he would be my first choice to play on the outside.”
The coach made a point to mention that Mack’s cover skills, lateral movement and quickness to the ball would make him a threat in the 3-4. The versatility is why he has risen up so many draft boards, and the Texans do need a linebacker. And as I mentioned earlier, it’s not going to be Clowney. Couldn’t Houston trade down and still get Mack? That could be the best move for the bigger picture.
6. OT Jake Matthews, Texas A&M
All three of the top-10-projected tackles received fairly high marks. Robinson, Lewan and Matthews were regarded as steady college players who could make for smart picks, especially if teams were not sure about the QBs.
You’ll recall that Matthews could have come out a year ago when teammate Luke Joeckel went No. 2 overall and many believed he would go first. Matthews then replaced Joeckel, moving from the right to the left side of the line. Blocking for Manziel isn’t exactly the easiest thing either; Johnny Football is a moving target most of the time.
Coach No. 1: “This is the safest pick in the top 10. He’ll make someone a good pro for a long time.”
7. WR Mike Evans, Texas A&M
Did Evans make Manziel look good, or the other way around? You hear a little bit of that from coaches, but more are impressed by what both were able to do. They mostly like both players. Mostly.
Coach No. 1: “He’ll go up and get it, but I’m not sure he knows what the hell he’s doing.”
I’ve heard this from a few coaches. Evans has crazy ball skills, but some wonder about his route running. Of recent examples, this is why Alshon Jeffery fell to the Bears at No. 45 in the second round in 2012. Jeffery going from 300 yards as a rookie to 1,400 in his second season is really helping the perception of raw-but-physically-gifted receiver prospects such as Evans and FSU’s Kelvin Benjamin, who could go late during Day 1 or early during Day 2.
8. QB Blake Bortles, Central Florida
The QBs are getting the bulk of the criticism from draft pundits, but Bortles is the one our draft analysts seem to like most. He is easily the most physically gifted, but some aren’t sure if he has the “it” factor for a franchise in terms of marketability and promotion. Winning helps, though, and that’s what could get him drafted in the first few picks.
I know South Carolina coaches were impressed with UCF, collectively, but didn’t necessarily think Bortles was transcendent or worth an early pick. Others were even less sure of Bortles.
Coach No. 1: “I watched him in the Fiesta Bowl [against Baylor]. He was good on the short throws, but it seemed like everything deep got picked off.”
What stood out to me in the Fiesta Bowl was Bortles’ ability to escape tacklers, if not his ability to flat-out run. He’s not going to be a running QB in the NFL, clearly, but if he can buy time, that’s always helpful.
9. OT Taylor Lewan, Michigan
I talked a year ago with Lewan. He was engaging, interesting and smart. But then Michigan had a lousy season.
The Wolverines offense was particularly bad. Rather than be critical of Lewan, coaches were more often critical of the offense as a whole. One coach predicted that Brady Hoke would fire Al Borges, and he later did.
10. CB Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State
I recall Spartans coach Mark Dantonio telling me last summer that he thought he had the top corner tandem in the country in Dennard and up-and-comer Trae Waynes. Dennard certainly held up his end for the No. 1 defense in yards per play against (4.04).
McShay seems to have Dennard higher than some -- I know Justin Gilbert gets more traction from some for his return ability -- but whether it’s Richard Sherman or Darrelle Revis, the value of a true cover corner in the NFL is clear.