Spring training is a time for optimism, opportunity and surprises. Every year teams go into camp with plans that, six weeks later, are altered because of injuries, poor performances or the sudden emergence of a rookie or veteran player. There are also late free-agent signings and usually one or two shocking trades that change the shapes of opening-day rosters. With those factors in mind, here are my bold predictions for spring training.
1. Jason Heyward will start in center field on Opening Day
The Chicago Cubs’ plan for their outfield as they head into spring training is clear. Manager Joe Maddon’s starters are supposed to be Kyle Schwarber in left, Jason Heyward in right and a platoon of Albert Almora and Jon Jay in center. He’s also planning on using Ben Zobrist as his Opening Day second baseman while again slotting Javier Baez into a super-utility role.
I understand that’s the plan going in, and it will work if Almora shows that his bat is ready. If that happens, it would give the Cubs two outstanding, Gold Glove-caliber outfielders in right and center to compensate for the below-average defense they’ll get from Schwarber in left.
I’m just not buying that it’s going to play out that way, though. First of all, Baez is one of the best defensive second basemen in baseball and has a chance to be a 30-homer, 30-steals impact player. He showed in the NL playoffs last year that he’s ready for the big stage.
Second, I’m not sure Almora is ready to hit enough to be the Cubs’ primary center fielder and I think he could be better utilized as a defensive replacement for Schwarber in left late in games.
Therefore, I’m predicting that by opening day Zobrist will be moved to right field, Heyward to center and Baez will become the Cubs’ regular second baseman while Almora and Jay become the team’s fourth and fifth outfielders.
2. Cody Bellinger starts in left field for Dodgers
The Dodgers’ initial long-term plan for Bellinger looked solid: He would spend the next two years in the minor leagues and be ready to take over first base full-time at the end of the 2018 season, when Adrian Gonzalez becomes a free agent.
However, that was before Bellinger upset those plans with his rapid progress at the plate. Bellinger, 21, has quickly developed into the best first-base prospect in the game with the potential to provide a .350 OBP, 30 home runs and 100 RBIs while being a Gold Glove-quality defender as well.
Here is where it gets tricky. To be conservative, the right move would be for Bellinger to start the year in Triple-A and be ready in case Gonzalez gets hurt in the middle of the season or once rosters expand in September. However, Bellinger’s bat is ready now -- he’s arguably the Dodgers’ best hitter after Corey Seager.
That’s where my bold prediction comes in. I think the Dodgers will play him in left field some during spring training and quickly realize that he is more than adequate out there. He will show them that he’s a far more advanced run producer than any of their current candidates in left, such as Andrew Toles, Andre Ethier and Scott Van Slyke.
As talented an offensive player as Bellinger is and as open-minded as the Dodgers’ front office can be, I can see Bellinger becoming their surprise starter in left field on opening day.
3. Francis Martes’ spring takes the Houston Astros out of the Jose Quintana sweepstakes
Astros GM Jeff Luhnow has had several conversations with White Sox GM Rick Hahn about acquiring Quintana to bolster Houston’s rotation. However, Hahn’s asking price -- three or four elite prospects -- has ended most of those conversations with more dial tones than follow-up proposals.
However, sometimes when a GM tries to trade for a player he finds out in time that he actually has as good an option or better in his own house. For the Astros that could be rookie Francis Martes. The White Sox have asked for Martes in a Quintana package and so far the Astros have declined, for good reason.
Martes, 21, has three above-average pitches, two of them dominant -- his fastball and curveball. Martes will pitch at 94-97 mph and touch 100 or more with his four-seam fastball, and he’s able to command the fastball on both sides of the plate. His hard downer curve is nasty, a real wipeout pitch. If his changeup improves and his delivery and command in the zone gets more consistent, he’ll be just as good an answer in the Astros' rotation as Quintana would be.
Therefore, I predict that Martes will be the surprise of the Astros’ camp, as he makes the team out of spring training -- and puts an end to Houston's trade talks with the White Sox.
4. The Tampa Bay Rays finally get Jurickson Profar from the Texas Rangers in a deal for Alex Cobb
For years, the Rays have been in discussions with the Rangers about a trade that would send one of their starting pitchers to Texas for infielder Jurickson Profar. Those talks never came to fruition because the two sides could never agree on which pitcher the Rangers would get. The Rangers wanted Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi and the Rays thought that was too high a price tag.
The Rays’ interest in Profar over the past couple of years was initially about having him play shortstop. However, since then, the Rays traded for Brad Miller, who they later moved to first base, and more recently traded for Matt Duffy, who’s expected to be their everyday shortstop this year. However, the Rays just dealt Logan Forsythe, their everyday second baseman, to the Dodgers for starting pitcher Jose DeLeon. That deal gave the Rays more starting pitching depth, which could allow them to trade another starter, while it also created a hole at second -- where Profar would fit nicely. Of course, the Rays could also just move Brad Miller to second and fill first base with someone else instead.
Profar’s stock has fallen because of shoulder injuries, but also because of a lack of opportunity because he’s playing behind Rougned Odor, a top-five second basemen, and Elvis Andrus, one of the best defensive shortstops. Yet Profar was once considered one of the game’s best prospects. He is still considered a solid future No. 2-hole hitter and an above-average defender at second and he is still just 23 years old.
Among the Rays’ starters, Alex Cobb is a free agent at season’s end, but if he’s healthy and pitching well this spring a Cobb-for-Profar deal makes enough sense for me to predict it. The Rangers need help in the rotation and the Rays need to replace Forsythe at second base. This deal works for both teams.
5. The San Francisco Giants trade for a left fielder
The Giants have made it clear that Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker will compete for their left-field job in spring training, taking the stance that they were not going to try to upgrade the position through free agency or a trade this past offseason. I predict they’ll change their minds and pound the phones until they can land an improvement over Williamson and Parker by the end of spring training. Trade possibilities include Jay Bruce of the Mets, J.D. Martinez of the Tigers, Brett Gardner of the Yankees, Ryan Braun of the Brewers and Marcel Ozuna of the Marlins.
6. Free agent Matt Wieters signs with the Los Angeles Angels
Angels GM Billy Eppler has done a great job in improving the Angels' defense since he took over two years ago. His trades for Andrelton Simmons and Danny Espinosa give the Angels one of the league’s best double-play combinations, and with Mike Trout entrenched in center field Eppler might as well finish the job of securing excellence up the middle by signing Wieters.
The Angels appear happy with Carlos Perez and Martin Maldonado behind the plate, but at the same time it’s going to be hard for them to pass up the opportunity to sign a former All-Star and Gold Glove catcher in Wieters. Wieters is one of only five catchers in baseball capable of hitting .260 with 17-22 homers while throwing out 35 percent of opponents’ stolen-base attempts. The Angels’ future depends on the continued development of their young arms and Wieters can be a difference-maker there as well.
Although Wieters would fit nicely in the lineups of the Nationals, Orioles, Rockies, White Sox or Diamondbacks, I predict he’ll sign a one-year “pillow” deal with the Angels.
7. Aaron Hicks beats out Aaron Judge as the Yankees’ starting right fielder
Aaron Judge has been one of the Yankees’ most touted prospects for years because of his size (6-foot-7, 275 pounds) and his tremendous power potential, to go along with his career .373 OBP in the minor leagues. However, the holes in his swing are huge, mostly because of his big strike zone. I think he needs more development time to close those up to be ready to be an everyday right fielder in the majors. He also has a minor league option remaining. Therefore, I am predicting that -- at least initially -- Hicks will beat Judge out in camp and become the Yankees’ opening-day starter in right.