Spring stats are meaningless. Year after year, it is proven that there is very little correlation between spring success or failure and regular-season success or failure. This is not exactly news.
However, there are times when you can learn something from spring play. If a pitcher is not improving a pitch as expected or his mechanics and command are off, it can be an omen that his performance is headed for a downward spiral. If a hitter is working on staying back and showing patience and seems to be doing better, it can be a good sign. It's a matter of knowing what to look for and when to look.
We've seen a lot of fine performances and just as many poor ones this spring. Through Friday's games, here's my take on whose performances are relevant and whether you can believe in them.
Guys to buy into
Greg Bird, New York Yankees: No offense to Alex Rodriguez and Jennifer Lopez, but Bird has been the headliner at Yankees camp this spring. He has hit for average and power and shown above-average defense at first base. Not only does he look 100 percent back from his shoulder surgery, but also, as GM Brian Cashman told me, his “arm strength is back to where it was, if not better, since surgery.”
What has me buying it is that Bird has demonstrated a great eye at the plate and shown power to both his pull side and the opposite field. He has also shown that he can hit lefties and righties and does not need to be a platoon player. What we’re seeing this spring is real, and I won’t be surprised if at season’s end he’s the second-best overall first baseman in the American League, behind Miguel Cabrera.
Taijuan Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks: Walker has made a couple of important adjustments this spring: turning his cutter into a slider and adding a turn to keep him better online to the plate so he doesn’t spin on/off as much. His fastball velocity is back in the mid-90s with improved command, his curveball command has improved, and he's throwing the changeup with better deception.
Walker has had great springs in the past and then faltered when the season started, but this year seems to be different. Combine maturity, entering his prime years and important mechanical adjustments, and the formula is there for a breakout season. Pitching half your games at Chase Field won’t help, but I think what we’re seeing in spring training can be maintained in the regular season.
Robert Gsellman, New York Mets: The Mets got more phone calls from GMs asking about the availability of Gsellman than about any other player this offseason, but they correctly and quietly rejected all of the inquiries. Gsellman has had a strong spring to back up his strong finish with the Mets last September.
Gsellman’s four-pitch mix is strong, and his competitiveness and strike-throwing ability make him a strong bet to be the real thing. The Mets’ rotation is deep and strong, and he has had a lot of competition with pitchers such as Seth Lugo and Zack Wheeler, but there is no doubt in my mind that somehow he ends up with 30 starts and an ERA in the 3.00s if he stays healthy. I’m a believer.
Bradley Zimmer, Cleveland Indians: Zimmer has had a phenomenal spring for the Indians after revamping his batting stance and swing this past season. These mechanical changes have included narrowing his stance, loosening his grip and improving his swing path to keep the barrel in the zone longer. He now has much better plate coverage and an improved launch angle. This spring, he has hit for average and power while showing off above-average bat speed and leading the team in RBIs.
One of the big questions on Zimmer has always been if his long limbs and levers would prevent him from hitting good inside fastballs, but it has not been a problem this spring. Zimmer is 6-foot-5 and 210 pounds, an above-average runner and athlete and a solid defensive center fielder who could play in either corner. I’m not sure if he’s going to make the Indians team out of spring training, but what he has shown this spring augurs well for his major league future.
Joe Musgrove, Houston Astros: Musgrove has had a great spring, and I won’t be surprised if he ends up one of Houston's top two starters this season. He reminds me of pitchers such as Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs and Josh Tomlin of the Indians. He isn't going to break a scout’s radar gun, and we aren't going to rave about a wipeout pitch. What we are going to praise is his four-pitch mix, the late life on all his pitches, his competitiveness, his ability to change eye levels and the intangibles that set him apart. I believe in his spring training performance, and I believe that Musgrove will be a double-digit winner this year with a low ERA and FIP.
Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners: M’s GM Jerry Dipoto made sure everyone was aware that Haniger was also in the offseason trade that sent Taijuan Walker to the Diamondbacks for Jean Segura. Dipoto didn’t want to trade Walker, but the fact that he was getting two everyday players made it a deal he could not turn down. Dipoto compared Haniger to Kole Calhoun of the Angels, viewing him as very underrated. DiPoto loves Haniger’s athleticism, above-average defense in right and shut-down arm.
Haniger has been impressive this spring leading the Mariners in hits while showing off both power and speed. Based on what we’ve seen in spring training, Haniger has a legitimate shot to be a Calhoun-type overachiever for Seattle this year.
Spring performances to be wary of
Jabari Blash, San Diego Padres: Blash has shown offensive potential in the minor leagues, including a 2015 season in which he had a .370 OBP and belted 32 home runs. He finally got a chance in the majors with the Padres last year, but Blash didn’t make a splash, hitting .169 in 84 plate appearances. This spring, he has hit well, as shown by his .373 on-base percentage and five homers. Unfortunately, I am not buying into his performance because most of the damage has been done on mediocre fastballs over the middle of the plate.
The Minnesota Twins’ spring training record: The Twins have had a solid spring as a team, as shown by their 14-10 start, but unfortunately, their fans need to be prepared for another 90- or 100-loss season as their new baseball administration staff continues to build for the future. The Twins just don’t have the pitching to contend, and the most important thing for them this year will be the continued development of young players such as Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano as they wait for shortstop Nick Gordon to develop in the minor leagues. The Twins’ farm system is not stocked with a lot of position players after Gordon, and the pipeline lacks any top starting pitching prospects. The Twins have a long way to go. Don’t believe in their spring training performance.
A.J. Reed, Houston Astros: Reed has had a great spring, leading the team in both home runs and RBIs and getting on base the way he did at the University of Kentucky (performance that led to his selection in the second round of the 2014 draft). Scouts love his power and ability to draw walks, and many believe this spring training is an omen of things to come.
I’m not a believer -- or at least, not yet. I still think he has huge holes in his swing, and in the spring, pitchers just weren’t bearing down on him; they gave him a lot of cookies he won’t get when the season starts. I think he needs to address those holes in Triple-A before he’ll succeed at the major league level. I also think he could end up being part of a package for a starting pitcher at some point.
Jose Osuna, Pittsburgh Pirates: Osuna took advantage of the Pirates’ three outfielder absences during the World Baseball Classic, as he blasted the ball all over the Grapefruit League. He leads the Pirates in home runs and RBIs and has gotten on base at a .510 clip. He reminds me a lot of Jim Opie, who once upon a time had a sensational spring for the Pirates -- remember him? Exactly my point. Don’t get me wrong: I like Osuna’s bat some. But his defense? Not as much. At the end of the day, he’s a fourth outfielder at best.
Jose Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals always seem to find these older outfielders who have great springs and make everyone talk about them until they fizzle out when finally given an opportunity. Last year, it was Jeremy Hazelbaker, who had the great spring and showed some regular-season power. Then, when pitchers found his holes and his defense wasn’t as good as expected, he departed to his next team.
This year, it’s Martinez’s turn, and he has had a great spring, hitting .381 with four home runs. The 6-foot-6, 215-pound first baseman/corner outfielder has had such a great spring that he is going to make the Cardinals team as an extra player. He won’t be the first one off the bench -- that will be Matt Adams -- but he’ll get his chances early in the season.
There’s some clamor for Martinez to get some playing time in left field, with Randal Grichuk having some spring training struggles. Although I like Martinez and think he can be a solid 24th or 25th player on the Cards’ roster, I don’t believe in his spring training stats and don’t think he can be any more than that.
The Mariners’ ERA this spring: The Mariners have put up an inflated 4.84, but don’t worry, that is about as misleading as it gets. Felix Hernandez, Drew Smyly, Yovani Gallardo and Edwin Diaz -- one-third of their pitching staff -- have been at the World Baseball Classic, and all besides Gallardo pitched extremely well. The Mariners’ starting pitching staff is seven deep, and the bullpen is improved. At the very least, that staff is good enough to keep the Mariners in a three-team race with the Astros and Rangers. I fully expect that their team ERA will be similar to what it was last year, which was 4.00, good for third in the AL.