Spring training statistics should generally be ignored in evaluating players, especially during the first two weeks of games. The pitching talent can range from A-ball to the majors, and those on the mound can be working on specific pitches or might be throwing just one pitch to try to get command of it. Some hitters played winter ball and are ahead of the rest, while others just didn’t come into camp ready for competition like others. The most important part of spring training is for players to get into game shape, stay healthy, get their timing down and be ready to play up to their accustomed level of performance by the third week in March.
However, it’s normal for fans, media and even teams to be concerned when players are having poor springs. We have to evaluate each struggling player on a case-by-case basis. Are they healthy? Are mechanical changes working? Are players pressing? Is their stuff playing better than the results? Does a player just need more time to develop? Is a player just having a difficult time adjusting to his new team or country? Those are just some of the factors to consider as teams decide what players to worry about and what players to not worry about after poor early spring performances.
Here is a list of players to worry and not worry about after the early returns:
Yes, worry
Jason Heyward, RF, Chicago Cubs: Heyward had a disastrous first year with the Chicago Cubs after signing his eight-year, $184 million contract, hitting a career-low .230/.306/.325 with just seven home runs in 142 games. To his credit he did win his fourth Gold Glove, and his leather, range and arm strength did help the Cubs immensely in terms of run prevention.
Heyward and the Cubs were so concerned about his lack of offensive production that Heyward spent the entire offseason revamping his swing, working as hard as any player in the game. Team president Theo Epstein told me last week that he’s confident that the mechanical adjustments Heyward made in the offseason will lead to a strong comeback season. However, the early returns have not been pretty after an initial 2-for-21 performance at the plate.
Watching tape, it doesn’t look like the swing changes will amount to his becoming an impact hitter, nor does it look like it will help improve his plate coverage. He’s always had trouble on one side of the plate or the other depending on which area he’s focused on with each pitch. I think Heyward can improve from last year and get back to his normal slash line of .270/.350/.430 with 12-14 homers, even though we’re not seeing any signs of that so far. However, for $184 million the expectations should be a lot higher than that. He’s still an elite defender in right, and the Cubs are still favorites to get back to the World Series even if he doesn’t hit. But for that kind of money, should Cubs fans worry? Yes.
Zack Greinke, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks: Greinke’s first year with the Diamondbacks was a huge disappointment despite his 13-7 record, as he put up a 4.37 ERA and 4.12 FIP in 26 starts. Greinke especially struggled in the thin air at Chase Field, going 5-5 with a 4.81 ERA in 13 home starts. However, what was more troubling was his road ERA was an inflated 3.94.
Greinke signed a six-year, $206.5 million deal prior to last season, and that contract looks like a real albatross already. He has not looked good this spring either -- his velocity is down and his command is not pinpoint. The rebuilding Diamondbacks should want to move Greinke to try to shed that contract and spread their money around the roster to better answer numerous needs. However, the only way that is going to happen is if Greinke is back in Cy Young form by the All-Star Game.
Greinke has always been a slow starter, and his history of stem cell injections always delays his timetable in the spring. However, for a team with a midmarket revenue stream and too much money invested in one player, it’s a scary situation. The Diamondbacks don’t just need Greinke to be good, they need him to be great for the money, and he simply hasn’t looked it since he signed.
Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Rangers: After Cashner was traded from the Padres to the Marlins at last year’s trade deadline, his performance fell off a cliff. He finished his stint in Miami with a 5.98 ERA and an atrocious 1.747 WHIP, a career high. What was shocking was that the Rangers were then willing to give him a guaranteed one-year contract for a whopping $10 million.
Cashner not only did not throw well in camp, he has since been shut down with biceps tendinitis, all but guaranteeing he’ll start the year on the Rangers’ disabled list. While the front office is optimistic about the type of impact his former and present teammate Tyson Ross can have when he’s finally healthy to pitch in May or June, the opposite can be said of Cashner, as the Rangers and their fans have 10 million reasons to worry about Cashner’s health and stuff.
Sonny Gray, RHP, Oakland Athletics: A year ago Sonny Gray was coming off a 14-7 record with a 2.73 ERA in 208 innings in 2015. His stock couldn’t have been higher and most analysts were preparing for a trade deadline deal if the A’s were out of it. Then a nightmare hit Oakland: Gray sustained lingering injuries and endured his worst year in 2016, going 5-11 with a 5.69 ERA. The A’s were hoping for a huge comeback season with hopes that if he could pitch like he did two years ago, they could still get a haul for him at this year’s trade deadline.
However, Gray’s spring started with the bad news that the insurance company would not cover his participation in the World Baseball Classic, forcing him to pull out. Even with pitch limits and the knowledge that he would pitch only a few times, the risk was still too great for the insurance adjusters. So instead he went to camp with the A’s, did not throw well and will now start the year on the DL with a lat strain after getting shut down from throwing for the next three weeks.
Gray will make $3.575 million this year, but his trade value remains at rock bottom, and for A’s fans the only thing left is to worry about him.
Don’t worry
Yoan Moncada, 2B, Chicago White Sox: Moncada was the headliner in the blockbuster trade with the Red Sox that sent ace Chris Sale to Boston, in which there was concern about how Moncada might fare against MLB secondary pitches, both breaking balls and changeups.
Moncada can crush fastballs with the best of them and flashes a power/speed combination that should play up to 30 homers and 30 stolen bases when he fully develops. However, it was his tendency to strike out on secondary pitches that gave pause for some Red Sox evaluators. Moncada was called up last year and was so overmatched by secondary stuff that he punched out a staggering 12 times in just 19 at-bats. This spring hasn’t been much different as he has struck out 12 more times in 29 at-bats to go along with a .207 average.
White Sox fans should not be concerned. He’s just not ready yet. Remember, he’s only 21 years old, is learning a new culture and facing major league pitching on a regular basis for the first time in his life. He needs time, and if the White Sox are smart, they’ll give him a full year in the minors to adjust to advanced secondary pitches, to learn better plate coverage as well as plate discipline. With that, he will mature into his profile as an All-Star-caliber player. A player’s prime years are usually ages 25 to 31, so everyone just needs to show patience with Moncada. He’ll get there, and when he does, he’ll be special.
Wade Davis, RHP, Chicago Cubs: The Cubs didn’t want to get involved in the bidding and long-term commitments to elite closers in the offseason. Instead, they traded outfielder Jorge Soler to the Royals for one year of Davis, a free agent at season’s end. For the Cubs to repeat as champs, they’ll need an impact closer, and Davis should be that.
However, he is not off to a good start, getting shelled in his first two Cactus League appearances by giving up five hits and four runs. Nevertheless, Cubs fans shouldn’t worry. Davis’ velocity is in the high 90s and he’s primarily throwing fastballs while he gets into game shape. He’s healthy and there is no reason to believe that he won’t be a dominant back-end reliever on Opening Day.
Matt Harvey, RHP, New York Mets: While attempting to come back from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, Harvey has demonstrated mixed results so far. In his first start his velocity was 91-94 mph without much command and he was hit hard, yielding four hits and four runs. However, his second start was better -- the velocity went up a tick and so did the command, and he pitched three solid innings against the Astros. It’s also worth noting he dealt with a stiff neck in both starts.
When Harvey was at his best in 2015, his velocity was in the 94-97 mph range. The good news is he feels healthy, is getting good extension and the delivery looks clean. I wouldn’t worry about him at this stage. In fact, I’m extremely encouraged. Give him four or five more starts, and everyone will see the velocity, command and crispness of his secondary stuff creep more toward normalcy. Realistically, it might not be until June when he completely gets back into his Dark Knight of Gotham form, but for now he’s not showing cause for concern.
Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals: The Royals were pleased to get Soler from the Cubs in the offseason for Wade Davis. He awed everyone in BP once he arrived at Royals camp, sending ball after ball out of the ballpark from foul pole to foul pole, but mostly to the pull side with arc and line-drive power. However, when the games started he struggled, initially hitting just .095, going 2-for-21. Changing teams and facing high expectations is not always easy. Soler will adjust, and once he settles in, the Royals should expect a solid but not spectacular year, where he’ll hit around .260 with at least 20 home runs. There’s no need to throw up a warning flare just yet for Soler.