While spending a quarter century in MLB front offices, including 15 years in the GM’s seat, it took me about four or five years to learn to not freak out during the first week of the season when things didn’t start out well.
I quickly understood that there really isn’t a reason to panic about records, certain injuries, poor performances, or when some pitchers' velocities might not be where they were expected. You learn not to panic when your lockdown closer, who’s normally lights out, blows first-week saves.
In 1995, the Cincinnati Reds started the season 0-6 and were 1-8 in the first nine games, five games out of first place. Everyone started freaking out because they thought we were going to be a bad team. At that point, I had been in the game long enough to understand how good our team was. So it was easy for me to stay calm and remind the media and fans that the season is 162 games long (though, in 1995 we started late and played 144) and during the year almost every team will go 1-8 at some point. Early-season losing gets magnified -- don't worry.
After a win on Aug. 29, we were in first by 14½ games. We won the NL Central by nine games that year.
However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t times for a GM to freak out after the first week, especially if you knew going into the season that you had a deficiency or that unforeseen injuries would immediately hamstring your team or weaken a deep one.
When this happens, it’s important for the GMs to stay calm -- and not let the fans, media, players and field staff know how you really feel. As the season started, you prepared for Plans A through D. Then all of a sudden you’re at D, and inching toward Plan E.
Even though we're only in the season's first week, there are five teams that have some reason to feel a little uneasy -- and all of it has to do with pitching.
1. New York Mets: Starting rotation injuries
I picked the New York Mets to win the National League East over the Washington Nationals by one game with both teams making the playoffs. I made this prediction because the Mets' starting rotation was seven deep, with three potential aces in Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey, three middle rotation starters in Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler and Robert Gsellman and one back end of the rotation starter in Seth Lugo.
The best news coming out of spring training for the Mets was that Syndergaard and deGrom looked like they were going to be Cy Young Award candidates, and Harvey was better after each start -- even reaching 97 mph by his last spring start. He looked like he was four or five starts away from being the “Dark Knight” again. Wheeler also had his velocity back in the high 90s, Lugo pitched well in the World Baseball Classic, Gsellman was hitting 95 mph with good sink and Matz looked like he was overcoming his elbow problems.
Fast-forward one week into the season and things look different. Syndergaard had to leave his Opening Day start with a blister on his middle finger, Matz was placed on the 10-day DL with an elbow problem that insiders say is worse than what’s being reported, Wheeler still isn’t showing that his command and control have come back and the Mets have publicly told everyone that he’ll have a 100-120 innings limit.
The worst news is that Lugo has a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament. The seven-deep starting rotation is already down to five and now the front office is worried about their eighth and ninth starters -- and we’re only in the first week of the season.
Freak-out Barometer: 7 out of 10
2. San Diego Padres: Lack of talent in the starting rotation
The Padres' rotation, at least on paper, is one of the worst in the major leagues. It's a unit that includes veterans Jhoulys Chacin, who has hasn't had a 1.0 WAR since 2013; Trevor Cahill, who hasn't started more than 20 games in a season since 2013; and Jered Weaver, who gave up 37 homers last season.
None of those three starters have much trade value, are all on the downside of their careers and, on a nightly basis, might break the single-season record in Vegas on the number of games in which the Padres are underdogs.
Opening Day was embarrassing as Padres pitchers allowed 14 runs on 14 hits. We understand the Padres aren’t trying to contend this year and are building for the future. The Pads hope that when the season is over players such Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe are Rookie of the Year candidates and Austin Hedges, already considered one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, can prove his 21 home runs last year between Triple-A and the majors were real. They also hope Wil Myers, their best player, will continue to get better as he has a chance to be a real impact power hitter down the road.
The Padres have to prepare for a 100-loss season, because that’s where they’re headed. Remember, it’s that type of season that allowed the Cubs to draft Kris Bryant, the Nationals to draft Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg and the Astros to get Carlos Correa with a first-round pick.
However, the Padres' rotation also could be historically bad (despite the anomaly of the Padres' 4-0 win over the Dodgers on Tuesday). It's one thing to tank but it's another thing to get pounded night after night as they did on Monday. The plan long term is solid and should work. But for the Padres, Opening Day is reason to freak out over how bad this rotation could really be.
Freak-out Barometer: 7
3. Seattle Mariners: Starting rotation injuries
Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto worked hard in the offseason to rebuild his starting rotation while at the same time adding depth to prepare for injuries.
Yet, here we are in the first week of the season and disaster already has set in. Opening Day starter Felix Hernandez left his first start with a groin pull and although it’s not serious, it still has to be a concern as the Mariners are hoping for a healthy bounce-back season from the team’s ace.
Drew Smyly, their big offseason acquisition, threw so well in the World Baseball Classic that some analysts started predicting the Mariners would win the AL West. However, Smyly has already been placed on the 60-day disabled list with a flexor strain and he’ll be out a minimum of 6-8 weeks.
Then there is Hisashi Iwakuma, who you’ll remember flunked a Dodgers physical in 2015 because of their long-term concerns, which led him to re-signing with the Mariners in December of that year. Iwakuma had a solid year last season for the Mariners, going 16-12 with a 4.12 ERA, but had a slow spring, finishing with a 7.13 ERA while yielding 23 hits in only 17 ⅔ innings of work. Scouts told me his stuff was down significantly. He had a bad spring last year too. While it’s not time to panic, there is at least one red flag for the GM.
The other major offseason acquisition for the rotation was Yovani Gallardo and his spring wasn’t much better than Iwakuma's. The Mariners have summoned Ariel Miranda from Triple-A Tacoma to replace Smyly, and to make matters worse Taijuan Walker, who the M's traded to the Diamondbacks in the offseason, looks as if he’s ready to have a breakout season.
This certainly was not the blueprint Dipoto had in mind to start the year.
Freak-out Barometer: 8
4. Boston Red Sox: Injuries throughout the pitching staff
The Red Sox improved immensely in the offseason when they traded for ace Chris Sale, acquired one of the game's best eighth-inning relievers in Tyler Thornburg and improved their defense at first base with the signing of Gold Glove first baseman Mitch Moreland.
However, one week into the season and David Price, one of their top starters, is on the 10-day DL with an elbow injury -- with no timetable for a return. Thornburg also landed on the DL with shoulder and back issues, of which different weight training could be the culprit.
The Sox are also dealing with a left flexor strain on Drew Pomeranz, the lefty starter they acquired last July for one of their top pitching prospects, Anderson Espinoza.
I picked the Red Sox to win the AL East, and I think they will still do so even if this trio of starters misses significant time with their injuries. However, if they want a strong shot at another World Series, they need these pitchers to be healthy.
Freak-out Barometer: 5
5. Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants: Bullpens
The Diamondbacks have a chance to be a surprise team in the National League and the Giants are my pick for the second NL wild-card slot. However, both bullpens had me concerned at different levels before the year started.
And the first week of the season didn’t make me feel any better.
Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen acknowledged that the bullpen was probably his team’s biggest concern to start the year. The D-backs actually have the offense and defense to play October baseball and their starting rotation, if all goes well, also has the talent and upside to get there.
We have all seen Zack Greinke at his best, minus last year. We all watched what Shelby Miller previously did for the Cardinals and Braves. We all remember when Taijuan Walker was the best pitching prospect in baseball. Robbie Ray's strikeout ratio at the end of last year led baseball and before Patrick Corbin had to deal with injuries, he was considered a No. 2 starter.
If the Diamondbacks can figure out how to improve the bullpen, they may actually be baseball's surprise story if the rest goes right this season. From a GM's perspective, you don't want to miss the postseason if the only reason is the bullpen.
For the Giants, it was surprising they didn't address the bullpen outside of signing their impact closer Mark Melancon, to whom they gave a four-year, $62 million deal in the offseason. Melancon blew his first save of the year on Opening Day, but that's no reason to freak out. He'll be fine.
However, what might not be good is how the Giants will bridge from their starters to Melancon. The rest of their bullpen is filled with relievers who are unproven, inconsistent, not effective in pressure situations or limited in the type of hitters they can get out.
Freak-out Barometer (for each team): 4