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Where fantasy meets MLB reality: Hot starts to invest in

A huge start from Eric Thames is exciting enough for Brewers fans, but will he deliver on it the rest of the year -- and in your fantasy league? John Fisher/Cal Sport Media/AP Images

We’re almost three full weeks into the season, and whether you follow real-world baseball, just play fantasy baseball or do both, there are several names you need to know now, perhaps many more than you did back on Opening Day. Who are they, and how important could they be on the diamond -- or in your league?

1. 1B/OF Eric Thames, Milwaukee Brewers: He has been the biggest story of the 2017 major league season so far. The last time Thames played in the major leagues was five years ago, splitting his combined slash line of .250/.296/.431 between time spent with the Blue Jays and Mariners. He floundered in the Orioles’ farm system in 2013 before departing to play in South Korea, where he belted a whopping 124 home runs while also hitting for average and stealing bases. Now that Thames has returned to the U.S. at age 30, he has brought back memories of Cecil Fielder, who went to play in Japan for a year after spending parts of four seasons with the Blue Jays, ripped 38 homers for the Hanshin Tigers, and came back as a free agent to the Detroit Tigers and led the league in home runs in each of the next two seasons, including hitting 51 his first year back.

Thames could always hit a fastball out over the plate, but in his three years playing for the NC Dinos in the Korea Baseball Organization he learned how to hit breaking balls, changeups and inside fastballs, while he also learned to cover the entire plate both vertically and horizontally. Normally, with such a small sample size it would be easy to ignore his numbers and question how long it’s going to last. In this case, he’s giving us every reason to believe that it’s real. He’s slashing .415/.500/.981 with eight home runs after Thursday night’s latest bomb.

Reality take: Thames gives the Brewers a legitimate threat in the middle of their lineup sandwiched between Jonathan Villar and Ryan Braun, while giving their fans hope that if they can get enough quality starting pitching they could surprise people and finish around .500.

Fantasy take: If you drafted Thames in your fantasy draft it’s OK to take a bow and trash-talk. He won’t deliver Ruthian numbers all year, but it’s realistic to expect a 25- to 30-homer season, and was almost certainly a bargain on draft day. In terms of trade value, I’d put him in the range of Adam Jones, Justin Upton and J.D. Martinez for value, which would be equivalent to a fifth- or sixth-round value in a 12-team rotisserie league.

2. LHP Amir Garrett, Cincinnati Reds: As a sports fan you probably best remember Garrett as the all-state basketball player from California who went on to average 7.4 points and 4.0 rebounds per game in two seasons playing guard with St. Johns. While he was doing that, the Reds drafted him in the 22nd round of the 2011 draft. Pitching in the minors from 2012 on, his numbers weren't noteworthy: 96 starts, a 25-29 record with a 3.18 ERA while allowing 204 walks in 496 IP. After splitting last year between Double-A and Triple-A, the Reds’ shortage of solid starters helped create an opportunity for him this spring. He has made the most of it, as his first three starts have been stellar, capped by his 12-whiff start against the Orioles on Wednesday.

His solid three-pitch mix (fastball, slider and changeup) isn’t overpowering, but as Cardinals manager Mike Matheny told me after the Cardinals lost to him in the first week, he was extremely deceptive and their hitters had a hard time picking the ball up. At 6-foot-5, he also generates a lot of tilt on his fastball while pounding the outside corner, making him tougher still. Throw in the benefit of playing under pressure in Division-I basketball, and he’s much more poised than your average rookie with just one year of experience above A-ball. Garrett's movement, command and deception might be good enough for him to develop into a solid starter for the Reds this year.

Reality take: He could develop into a solid mid-rotation starter who could win 12 games with an ERA in the threes and have some solid real value.

Fantasy take: He won’t have much fantasy value outside of extremely deep leagues. Fantasy is mostly about categories and Garrett won't get a lot of wins because he's pitching for the Reds, he won't get a lot of strikeouts because he pitches more to contact and won't do well in the WHIP category because his normal walk rate in his career which is 3.7 BB/9.

3. RF Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners: Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto had one of the busiest offseasons of any GM ever, making more trades than any other team this winter. His headliner was the deal that sent top pitching prospect Taijuan Walker along with shortstop Ketel Marte to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for middle infielder Jean Segura, Haniger and left-handed pitcher Zac Curtis. Segura was the Mariners’ obvious target -- they were looking for an offensive upgrade at shortstop, and Segura was coming off a year when he hit .319 with 20 home runs and 33 steals. However, when the deal was made, Dipoto told me that Haniger was just as important in the deal as Segura, saying that the outfielder reminded him of Kole Calhoun, the Angels' right fielder that he promoted to the big leagues when he was GM there.

Haniger is a plus defender with a plus arm and most importantly a long history of a high on-base percentage with 15-20 homer power and 12-steal capability. It’s early, but his .303/.418/.561 line has already made him an important player for the Mariners and for your fantasy team.

Reality take: Haniger hits second in the Mariners’ lineup ahead of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager. If he can spend most of the season in that spot, he should get enough fastballs to have a 15- to 20-homer season with 12 steals while playing an above-average right field. That could make a big difference when the Mariners’ middle of the order starts bashing after its slow start to the season.

Fantasy take: If you’re in an AL-only league, someone already has him. Just in case he wasn’t already drafted in a 12-team mixed league, he’s definitely a player to pick up if you need a fourth or fifth outfielder.

4. 1B/OF Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles: In consecutive offseasons the Orioles re-signed Chris Davis to a seven-year, $161 million deal and then Mark Trumbo to a three-year, $37.5 million pact. One might wonder why while watching Mancini, their top hitting prospect, pounding the outfield seats, brick buildings and light towers in Camden Yards while he mashes. The Orioles now have three first base/DH types capable of 40-50 home runs. You already knew about Davis and Trumbo, but you should know about Mancini.

Mancini, 25, was the Orioles’ eighth-round pick in the June 2013 amateur draft out of Notre Dame. He’s 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, and hit 41 minor league homers the past two years, plus three last September with the Orioles after his initial call-up. He has started the season by hitting .321 with four home runs (in just 30 plate appearances) and looks like the real thing. While he has made starts in both outfield corners, he still profiles best at first base or DH.

Reality take: With Mancini’s power bat added to those of Davis, Trumbo and Manny Machado, the Orioles should lead the league in homers again. The Orioles’ offense is all about the long ball, but it is also the best 5 o’clock batting practice show in the American League if you can see BP on the road.

Fantasy take: You might not consistently see Mancini get at-bats, because he’s not a good defender in the outfield and the O’s have committed close to $200 million to both Trumbo and Davis to play first base and DH. Mancini certainly has the offensive talent to play every day, but he might end up just being a platoon player unless there is an injury. He certainly will help you in the home run and RBI categories when he plays, but if your league has daily lineups, make sure to sit him when the Orioles do.

5. LHP James Paxton, Seattle Mariners: You’ve been hearing about Paxton since the Blue Jays drafted him in 2009 with their first pick and then (when he didn’t sign) after the Mariners took him the next year in fourth round of the 2010 draft. His 6-foot-4 235-pound frame is ideal, and his clean delivery brings forth a mid-90s fastball along with a cut fastball, an above-average curve and a solid change. The unfortunate part is that he’s always dealing with one ailment or another and in his five years in the big leagues he has made more than 13 starts only once, and has never made more than 20 starts in an MLB season.

Happily, it looks like 2017 will be the year he breaks out and becomes the pitcher we all thought he would be. He has started the year with a 2-0 record and a 1.78 ERA, allowing no runs in his first three starts.

Reality take: If the Mariners get to the playoffs, there’s no question that Paxton will have played a big role as their No. 2 starter behind Felix Hernandez. The potential was always there, now we’ll see if can make it to 30 starts and live up to the projected ceiling.

Fantasy take: The Mariners should be able to give him the offensive, defensive and bullpen support he’ll need to bring you 12-15 wins. A low ERA and WHIP to go with a strikeout per inning makes him a solid No. 3 starter in your rotation. If you want to gamble on his health, trade for him.

6. RHP Chris Devenski, Houston Astros: While Indians manager Terry Francona gets credit for reinventing the set-up/closer hybrid role last year after getting Andrew Miller from the Yankees, the Astros started using Devenski in an equally creative way out of the bullpen last year. He was so dominant that they gave him a chance to compete for a starting rotation slot in spring training, but after he discussed the matter with manager A.J. Hinch in spring training, he convinced Hinch that his best role was in the pen.

Chris “The Dragon” Devenski comes at batters with a 92-94 mph fastball and a big-breaking slider, but his changeup is his best pitch. Back in 2012 when he threw a minor league no-hitter, 60 percent of his pitches were changeups. His key is that he pitches ahead, pounding the strike zone to put hitters in a hole. Hinch will use Devenski from one to four innings any given night and at any given time in-game.

Reality take: Devenski has become one of the best mid-game/set-up relievers in baseball, along with Miller and Dellin Betances of the Yankees, and should remain one of the most dominant pitchers in that role.

Fantasy take: He won’t help you much in the wins or saves categories. If your league has strikeout rate or holds, he’s worth pursuing for those reasons in addition to how he’ll help you with ERA and WHIP. He’s a much better asset in reality than he is in fantasy.

Other budding breakouts to follow: Who else should you be keeping an eye on for their real-world and fantasy impact? Among hitters, keep an eye on Nomar Mazara of the Rangers, Avisail Garcia with the White Sox, Marcell Ozuna of the Marlins, Yasiel Puig for the Dodgers and the Yankees’ Aaron Judge. On the mound, watch Jameson Taillon (Pirates), Dylan Bundy (Orioles), Michael Pineda (Yankees), Daniel Norris (Tigers) and Kendall Graveman (Athletics, even though he’s now on the DL).