The Major League Baseball winter meetings are right around the corner, and almost every industry insider will be in Washington, D.C., starting on Sunday, now that we have a new labor pact. With that huge "maybe" no longer hanging over the entire industry, the hot stove is heating up, and deals are well on their way to getting done. Even after this week's $110 million pact for Yoenis Cespedes, there are plenty of big-name free agents who are still available -- and plenty of teams hustling to make major moves. Here are my predictions for where some of those star players end up and who gets something done during December.
1. Dexter Fowler signs with the Cardinals
Fowler is one of the most sought-after free agents left on the board, with the Cardinals, Nationals, Blue Jays, Astros, Rangers and Giants all somewhat still negotiating or at least having checked in on the asking price for his services. I think the Cardinals are the best fit for him, because they need a center fielder more than all the other clubs. St. Louis is still one of the game's best baseball cities, and he would fit in perfectly with the "Cardinals Way." The Cardinals have the resources in their budget to sign him, and there aren’t a lot of solid alternatives, either in free agency or through trades. This is one of those times when they’ll have to overpay, like they did when they inked shortstop Jhonny Peralta a few years back. With veteran outfielder Matt Holliday off the books, they can reallocate those dollars to Fowler.
2. The Dodgers make a blockbuster trade with the Rays to get Evan Longoria and Chris Archer
Dodgers president Andrew Friedman would like to bring back both infielder Justin Turner and left-hander Rich Hill, but Friedman is not sure he likes the length (in years) and average annual value it’s going to take to get either deal done. However, his team matches up really well with his former club, the Rays as Longoria and Archer would actually be upgrades at both positions for the Dodgers, and both are already signed to reasonable multiyear contracts. The Rays are always looking for young prospects and non-arbitration-eligible players, and the Dodgers have plenty of those with which to make a blockbuster trade of this magnitude happen.
3. The Yankees sign lefties Aroldis Chapman and Rich Hill
The Yankees are going to be active in free agency, because they would prefer to improve their team that way than have to trade any of the top prospects they’ve been gathering over the past several years. Chapman wants to return to the Yankees, and they’re prepared to make him the highest paid closer in baseball history. Hill is being sought after by the Astros, Rangers and Dodgers, but all signs point to his preference to move back to the East Coast and pitch for the Yankees. Signing both of these left-handers would dramatically improve both the bullpen and rotation and put the Yankees in strong position as a postseason contender in the upcoming season, while they wait for some of their top prospects to arrive later this season or next.
4. The White Sox don’t trade Chris Sale
The White Sox are listening to everyone calling on Sale, and they are asking for a huge package in return -- which they should. Teams like the Astros, Red Sox, Nationals, Braves and Dodgers seem to match up the best with them, but none of those teams has been willing to get into the range it would take for the ChiSox to deal their ace. The White Sox control Sale for three more years at a salary between $12 million and $13 million per year, which is about $20 million per year under market value for aces at that age -- just ask Clayton Kershaw, David Price and Zack Greinke. Despite so many teams wanting Sale, I wouldn’t be surprised if the White Sox general manager Rick Hahn holds on to him for now. The White Sox can always trade him in spring training or at the next trade deadline or even during the next offseason. Will someone be willing to really overpay for Sale, so badly they lose the deal? I think that’s the only way he is traded, at least in December.
5. Thanks to the new CBA, the Astros are the team that signs Edwin Encarnacion
The Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers and Astros have all been linked to Encarnacion, the best run producer in this year's free-agent pool. The industry's new collective bargaining agreement only allows for minimal growth of the luxury tax over the next five years, which means that the team I thought would sign him -- the Yankees -- will now find the cost too high to afford because of the potential penalties. The Astros have been trying to make a massive splash since the trade deadline, and I predict they'll surprise people and make it happen in December. Imagine an Astros lineup with Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Encarnacion, Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel, Brian McCann, Josh Reddick and Norichika Aoki -- that's the lineup of a serious World Series contender. It would also free up the Astros' strong and deep farm system to make a run at the starting pitchers available on the trade market.
6. Scott Boras gets Matt Wieters a Martin/McCann-level contract
One of the highlights of the first couple of days of every winter meetings is the arrival of superagent Boras. He’ll probably arrive sometime Monday afternoon at the media area and immediately have a scrum of reporters around him. When Boras has this impromptu news conference, you can expect at least 15 minutes will be spent on his talking about the greatness of free-agent catcher Wieters -- one of his clients. We’ll be reminded of Wieters’ four All-Star appearances and two Gold Gloves and his ability to stop the running game. We’ll be educated on how far removed Wieters is away from his Tommy John surgery, and how sharp he looked in September and how he should be back to his 2011-13 form. We’ll then hear why he is so much better than both Russell Martin and McCann and be reminded that Martin got five years and $82 million and that McCann got five years and $85 million.
I thought Wieters would get much less, but Boras has a way of pulling out deals in situations like this. Remember, it only takes one team to give it to him, so I predict that one of the Braves, Angels, Nationals or Rays will relent and solve their long-term catching position and overpay for Wieters.
7. Jose Bautista returns to the Blue Jays
Bautista was hoping to get a five- or six-year deal, but those dreams are long gone. Now he must hope he can get a third year on a new contract. The Blue Jays have left the door open for him to return, and I think that’s how it’s going to play out -- and also because so many teams prefer Encarnacion and Carlos Beltran over him. Bautista is beloved in Toronto and has been one of the faces of the franchise for the past several years, and it’s also the best fit for him. It’s when you get older that you come to understand that all of your new contracts are going to be shorter-term deals the rest of the way, just like David Ortiz of the Red Sox had to deal with and Beltran is dealing with now. That’s just the way the market for older-yet-productive players has to be.
8. Jon Daniels makes his first career trip to the podium at the winter meetings
Texas Rangers president of baseball operations Daniels has been one of the most active and successful GMs in baseball over the past decade, but interestingly, all of his moves have occurred either at the trade deadline or before or after the winter meetings. In fact, over the past 11 years, he has never walked up to the podium to make an announcement of a trade or free-agent signing. My prediction is that 2016 will be the first time he makes it up to center stage, to announce that he has acquired his team’s new center fielder, first baseman or designated hitter.
9. John Schuerholz gets voted into the Hall of Fame
Schuerholz was the best general manager in the pre-Theo Epstein era, and he deserves and should be the next GM to follow Pat Gillick to Cooperstown. I predict over the winter meetings that he will get enough votes to be inducted in July. He built two world champions -- the 1985 Kansas City Royals and the 1995 Atlanta Braves. He also oversaw 14 consecutive divisional titles in Atlanta, something that no other team has done in any American sports league. His class, dignity, integrity and high character embody the term Hall of Famer. I hope to be one of the first to congratulate him next week at the Gaylord Resort and Convention Center in Washington, D.C.
10. The Nationals land Kenley Jansen
The Nationals have made closer their top priority and GM Mike Rizzo has been very aggressive in his pursuit of Chapman, Jansen and Mark Melancon as potential answers for their need. It’s tough to bet against Rizzo and the Lerner family in situations like this -- where the market is pretty clear as to where the players’ values will fall. I think Chapman ends up back with the Yankees, only because he has told friends that is his first choice. Jansen would like to go back to the Dodgers, but it’s doubtful they’ll go the extra years the Nationals will tack on to get the deal done.