When the New York Mets committed six figures to take a shot on outfielder Tim Tebow, they did so knowing he had significant physical skills, including great athleticism, strength, flexibility and some above-average tools, specifically raw power and running speed (he ran a 6.6 60-yard dash). They also know that if he's to reach the big leagues, he'll need to improve. On defense, he needs to master his footwork, reads and first step in the outfield, as well his baseball throwing mechanics. But more importantly, he'll need to prove he can hit major league-caliber pitching.

If he was 18-21 years old, the decision to sign him would have been a no-brainer. But he's 29, and having not played baseball for more than a decade means the odds are severely stacked against him.

His best trait is his makeup, which can be fairly graded on a 20-80 scouting scale at 80. He's a leader and has a great work ethic, high energy and passion and intelligence. And it's really those qualities that give the Mets the belief he might actually pull off a miracle and make it to the big leagues in the next three years if he can stay committed full time to it.

First we'll look at potential problems he could encounter as he goes through the daily grind that is pro baseball, then we'll lay out the best-case, worst-case and most likely scenarios, as well as an outside-the-box scenario.

Problems he could encounter

Mentally, he'll quickly find that having a baseball career and broadcasting career at the same time is very challenging. Baseball must be a 24/7 commitment if he is to have any chance of succeeding; stepping away from it for broadcasting work is not ideal.

Physically, the biggest challenge will be handling the bat against all velocities, picking up movement on pitches, developing an ability to lay off pitches outside the strike zone and being able to handle everything in the zone horizontally and vertically.

Best-case scenario

There are a handful of teams that think Tebow has some chance of making it. As one general manager (not the Mets' Sandy Alderson) put it, “We had a scout at the workout and his report was that he showed the physical tools to have potential to play in the big leagues. His above-average power was his best overall tool. He recommended that we sign him with a minimal investment and called it a high-risk, low-return investment, but it might be worth it if we had a need for a fourth-type outfielder that may or may not make it over a three-year period.

"Because of our depth, projected time line and potential talent gain, we decided to pass. However, I am personally a fan of his and will be rooting for him to succeed.”

So what if Tebow arrives in camp and quickly shows he can hit mid-90s fastballs, breaking balls and changeups both vertically and horizontally within the strike zone? What if he makes adjustments quickly, finds a home in left field (because of his lack of arm strength) and makes the mechanical improvement needed with his footwork and throwing mechanics? What if he looks good on the basepaths, getting good first and secondary leads and good jumps? And most importantly, what if his good raw power translated to good in-game power?

If these things happen, the Tebow timeline would be moved up dramatically.

Even though it's only instructional league, it's a proving ground. If that above scenario took place, however unlikely, the Mets would have to find a way to get him to competitive winter ball in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela or Puerto Rico later this year. (And at that point, he likely would be asked to give up all other activities and focus only on baseball.)

He then would be invited to major league camp next spring, where he would play in some “B” or split-squad games. He'd be included in the first set of cuts regardless of how he performs so that he can play every day at the minor league fields, where he would compete for a job in low- or high-A ball.

This is if everything went perfectly, which is obviously a long shot.

Worst-case scenario

The vast majority of clubs do not think Tebow will make it to the big leagues. As one GM put it, “We had two scouts at his workout. They thought he was not a prospect and had no chance of making it to the big leagues. We passed.”

The worst-case scenario for both the Mets and Tebow would be if Tebow shows no ability to hit quality pitching during the instructional league and is totally overmatched, to the point where the Mets don't even consider sending him to winter ball because they feel he'll have no chance against that level of pitching. Perhaps at the same time, Tebow will decide it would be in his best interest to return to broadcasting full time, thanking the Mets and returning the six-figure bonus he received.

An outside-the-box scenario

If Tebow gets cut by the Mets after instructional-league play but decides he still wants to play, the next step would be for him to sign with an independent club, with the hopes that he can prove himself by dominating that league and getting another chance like Andrew Toles did with the Dodgers.

The most likely scenario

Tebow participates in the Florida Instructional League and maintains the agreed-upon schedule and regimen, in the process becoming a role model for many of the 18-21-year-old players in terms of work ethic, intensity, sportsmanship and leadership. He works hard and improves his footwork and throwing mechanics in the outfield, and his bat improves enough that the Mets think he can hold his own in some form of winter ball. So they decide to have him play in Mexico particularly to improve his hitting against breaking balls.

Next spring, he reports directly to minor league camp and commits to a full year, which should provide a good indication as to whether he has any chance of someday playing in the big leagues. I foresee him starting the season in an extended spring training program rather than being sent to an A-ball team. If all goes well, I see him being sent to low-A (like the South Atlantic League) by the beginning of May and staying there the rest of the year. Even if he does well, I don't think they should or will promote him before August, and if they did so then, it would be only to high-A rather than Double-A.

I plan on visiting Tebow and the Mets' instructional league later this month and will give you my assessment and evaluation after seeing him play. I'm not betting against Tebow because I never bet against athletes with 80-grade makeup. However, I believe it's going to be a process, and if he ever does make it to the big leagues, I don't think there's a chance it will be in 2017.