The draft is a time of hope and promise, and after it's all over, a scout sits with his scouting staff and marvels over all the players the team just picked. Well, sometimes they don't work out as planned, as is the case for these 20 first-rounders who didn't make the top 30 in my redraft of the 2004 class. (Note: All WAR stats come from Baseball-Reference.com.)
Matt Bush, SS/RHP, No. 1 pick, San Diego Padres
Never played in majors
Bush couldn't hit, had a drinking problem, moved to the mound, blew out his elbow almost immediately, came back from the injury, kept drinking, changed organizations, threw well, and then was convicted on a DUI and hit-and-run incident that nearly killed a 72-year-old motorcyclist. Bush is currently incarcerated and his career is almost certainly over without having a single day in the majors.
Philip Humber, RHP, No. 3 overall pick
0.9 career WAR
Mark Rogers, RHP, No. 5 pick, Milwaukee Brewers
1.1 career WAR
Rogers pitched in rural Maine, threw really hard and had a violent, cross-body delivery that meant he didn't have command of his fastball and was seen as a risk for injury. In fact, our area scout at the time, current Mets scouting director Tommy Tanous, told me not to make the drive to see Rogers because it wasn't worth the trip; there was no way we'd take that kid if he even reached our pick at No. 16. His instincts were right, as Rogers went fifth overall and repeatedly hurt his shoulder, to the point where he's trying to hang on now as a short reliever.
Jeremy Sowers, LHP, No. 6 pick, Cleveland Indians
1.6 career WAR
Sowers was a command-and-control lefty who didn't have an above-average pitch. I saw him pitch in the Cape Cod league and couldn't understand why a guy who couldn't hit 90 mph was seen as a slam-dunk first-rounder. He did have a great feel for pitching, but major league hitters treated him like a batting-practice pitcher and he was out of baseball by 2011.
Wade Townsend, RHP, No. 8 pick, Baltimore Orioles
Never played in majors
As the story goes, Orioles owner Peter Angelos told his scouting staff the morning of the draft that it had to take a college guy. The group was ready to select Chris Nelson and had to scramble, taking Townsend from Rice and lowballing him to the point that he didn't sign. He was the No. 8 pick again the following year, by Tampa Bay, after which he blew out ligaments I didn't even know existed. Baltimore received the 48th pick in 2005 as compensation for failing to sign Townsend, selecting left-hander Garrett Olson, who had a career WAR total of -2.7.
Chris Nelson, SS, No. 9 pick, Colorado Rockies
-2.3 career WAR
Nelson actually has the worst WAR number of any 2004 draftee to reach the majors, although some of that is a function of selection bias; first-rounders are more likely to get a chance to play in the majors than players selected later on. This pick made a lot of sense at the time, as Nelson was a good athlete with a simple, compact swing and the chance to hit for 10-15 homer power down the road. He never has hit like I expected him to, and the lack of any kind of patience at the plate may be a big reason why he hasn't.
Thomas Diamond, RHP, No. 10 pick, Texas Rangers
0.9 career WAR
Diamond threw very hard but had no breaking ball and not much of a changeup, either. Pure-arm-strength guys like Diamond don't usually go this high in the draft these days.
Bill Bray, LHP, No. 13 pick, Montreal Expos
2.5 career WAR
Bray was the closer at William & Mary and was seen as a guy who'd move quickly through the minors, reaching the big leagues in a year or less. However, he didn't see the majors until 2006 and was never more than a middle reliever, lacking the knockout breaking ball to miss enough bats to make him more than that. He retired in March.
David Purcey, LHP, No. 16 pick, Toronto Blue Jays 0.1 career WAR
Purcey was a college guy, which was all we took in Toronto at that point, but he wasn't a straight stats pick. In fact, the scouting reports, which had him with a plus fastball and curveball, as well as the size to be a workhorse starter, were way ahead of the stats, as he walked 54 in 118 innings that spring for the University of Oklahoma. He's currently in Triple-A for the White Sox and will probably get a few more cups of coffee.
Scott Elbert, LHP, No. 17 pick, Los Angeles Dodgers
1.3 career WAR
Elbert had electric stuff but blew out his shoulder and had a lot of trouble getting his velocity back. He then had trouble staying healthy when he returned from that injury, eventually having Tommy John surgery in 2013 (he's still rehabbing).
Josh Fields, 3B, No. 18 pick, Chicago White Sox
-1.1 career WAR
Fields, a two-sport star at Oklahoma State, had power and athleticism but wasn't much of a hitter for average or contact, and that didn't develop even after he got into pro ball. He's currently playing in the Mexican League.
Chris Lambert, RHP, No. 19 pick, St. Louis Cardinals
-0.8 career WAR
Lambert threw hard, but had poor command and no plus second pitch. The Cards had a brutal draft that year, producing four big leaguers, none of whom racked up better than 0.4 WAR in the majors.
Trevor Plouffe, SS, No. 20 pick, Minnesota Twins
2.2 career WAR
Plouffe was the next player on my list for the top 30, as I think he's going to hang around for a while as a bench bat, even if his 2012 season was kind of a fluke. He was a two-way prospect in high school but was better at the plate than on the mound, although there was a big gulf even at the time around the question of whether he'd stay at shortstop.
Greg Golson, OF, No. 21 pick, Philadelphia Phillies
-0.5 career WAR
Stop me if you've heard this one before: The Phillies took a "toolsy" high school player in the first round. Golson really couldn't hit and didn't have much feel for the game at all, and the Phils eventually used him to pick up John Mayberry Jr. from Texas. Golson, meanwhile, is playing in the Atlantic League this year.
Landon Powell, C/1B, No. 24 pick, Oakland Athletics\
0.2 career WAR
The other big-bodied catcher the A's took in the early 2000s, Powell ended up needing three knee surgeries and discovered he had autoimmune hepatitis. He reached the majors for less than a full season, never showing the kind of power in pro ball he was projected to have, and retired last August.
Kyle Waldrop, No. 25 pick, Twins
0.5 career WAR
Taken with a pick the Twins got from the Cubs for LaTroy Hawkins, Waldrop was a Vanderbilt commit out of powerhouse Farragut High School in Knoxville, Tennessee, had some arm strength with a potentially plus curveball, but never missed many bats in pro ball or added enough velocity. He has had elbow trouble recently and is currently out of baseball after a brief trial with the Pirates' Triple-A club in 2013.
Richie Robnett, OF, No. 26 pick, A's
Never played in majors
Robnett was a pop-up guy that spring, an athletic outfielder with power who didn't emerge as a first-round prospect until about three months before the draft. He couldn't hit with wood and never ran as well in pro ball as he had in college. He was out of organized ball by 2010, after the A's had traded him to the Cubs for Michael Wuertz.
Blake DeWitt, 2B/SS, No. 28 pick, Los Angeles Dodgers
1.9 career WAR
Taken from a Missouri high school, Dewitt was seen as a slightly undersized hitter with a good swing and excellent power for his size, although he wasn't going to stay at shortstop in pro ball. He was released last August by Atlanta and hasn't played since.
Matt Campbell, LHP, No. 29 pick, Kansas City Royals
Never played in majors
Campbell struck out a ton of guys in college with his off-speed stuff but had a below-average fastball and kept getting hurt in the pros, requiring shoulder surgery in 2005. He was out of baseball before the end of 2007.
Eric Hurley, RHP, No. 30 pick, Texas Rangers
0.1 career WAR
Hurley had a big fastball that was flat and straight, and he didn't have the precise command he needed to pitch with it. His arm started to give out in 2008, costing him two full seasons, and he made only five starts in the majors before his career ended after the 2012 season.