The 2017 draft class is different than those we’ve seen the past few years. It lacks the depth of some recent classes, but features an above-average group of first-rounders, with an especially strong crop of college pitchers and some high-upside high school outfielders.
Southern California is as good as it has been in years, and it’s a banner year in Kentucky, of all places. We’ve even got a few smaller colleges represented in addition to the usual passel of SEC prospects. It’s a good year to pick at the very top, and the back half of the first round is better than normal, but the difference between picking third and seventh -- which was determined on the season’s final day -- is significant.
1. Jeren Kendall, OF, Vanderbilt
A first-round candidate out of a Wisconsin high school, Kendall was close to unsignable because of his commitment to Vanderbilt, and his decision to go to school may end up tripling his signing bonus. He’s an actual five-tool talent, with the potential to play above-average defense in center, but high strikeout totals do have some scouts concerned about what his contact rates might look like in the majors.
2. Hunter Greene, RHP/SS, Notre Dame HS
Greene was the star of the showcase season, showing incredible arm-strength and touching 98 mph with his fastball. He also showed the makings of a quality breaking-ball -- although not consistently -- and sporadically a decent change. He’s an outstanding athlete who has also shown plus defense at short and some raw power, but it’d be a real surprise if he wasn’t making his living on the mound.
3. Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt
Wright looks the part in every way -- size, delivery, stuff -- with the best chance among this solid group of first-round college arms to end up a quality big-league starter with high strikeout rates. Vanderbilt’s very strong track record of producing MLB starters who stay healthy will help his cause also.
4. Alex Faedo, RHP, Florida
A rare prep hurler standout who has seen his stock rise since going to college, Faedo could miss time after having arthroscopic surgery on both of his knees. Assuming he comes back healthy, he’s sure to intrigue scouts with his ability to pound the strike zone with a plus fastball/slider combination.
5. Tanner Houck, RHP, Missouri
Scouts are torn on whether or not Houck will be a starter at the next level in large part to his low arm slot, but he certainly has the stuff to start. The fastball will get up to 97, and when he stays on top of his slider it’s a strikeout pitch. If the change can be even average, he has a chance to be the first hurler selected this summer.
6. Jo Adell, OF, Ballard (Louisville, Ky.) HS
You wouldn’t guess Adell was a prep by looking at him; and if the swing can be toned down, he has a chance to be a true five-tool player thanks to his impressive bat speed and raw power along with a strong throwing arm and plus speed.
7. Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville
McKay doesn’t have the top-of-the-rotation stuff that the pitchers above -- and some below -- have, but what he does have is excellent feel for pitching and the ability to command an above-average fastball and curve.
8. Corbin Martin, RHP, Texas A&M
Every summer there’s a pitcher that sees his stock take a big jump from performing well in the Cape Cod League, and this year that hurler is Martin. The heater got up to 98 mph, and both his curveball and change flashed plus on a relatively consistent basis. It’s just a matter of him showing that same stuff -- and better command -- this spring.
9. JB Bukauskas, RHP, UNC
For pure stuff, Bukauskus might be the best college pitcher in the draft class, with a fastball up to 98, an above-average breaking ball, and an improved changeup that’s at least average. But at 6-foot with a high-effort arm action, Bukauskas faces a lot of skepticism about his ability to hold up as a starter across a full pro season, and many teams view him as a high-ceiling bullpen arm instead.
10. DL Hall, LHP, Valdosta (Warner Robins, Ga.) HS
If not for Greene, Hall would have been the most impressive prep pitcher this summer. The southpaw’s fastball will touch the mid-90s, and the curveball has big spin and should be a plus offering when all is said and done.
11. Hagen Danner, RHP, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS
Danner also catches and looked like a potential first-day selection behind the plate. Like Greene, he likely begins his professional journey on the mound thanks to a plus fastball and two secondary pitches that have drawn above-average grades from an athletic delivery.
12. JJ Schwarz, C, Florida
Schwarz will show huge power in BP and hit 18 homers as a freshman, but had a very disappointing sophomore year (including 54 strikeouts, second only to Buddy Reed among the Gators) and hasn’t caught much due to the presence of teammate Mike Rivera. He has the arm to catch but limited reps may mean he’s drafted for his bat rather than the position.
13. Tristan Beck, RHP, Stanford
Beck is a draft-eligible sophomore, and likely to go high as a rare combination of both advanced stuff and projection. The only concern is the command, but it made strides toward the end of the season and should be good enough to allow him to start long-term.
14. Garrett Mitchell, OF, Orange Lutheran (Calif.) HS
Mitchell is an excellent athlete who posts plus run times, and his left-handed swing comes with plus bat-speed and a chance to hit for both average and power at the next level.
15. Brendon Little, LHP, Manatee JC
Little was a fourth- to fifth-round talent out of Malvern, Pennsylvania, in 2015. He went to North Carolina, but was barely used at all by the Heels because reasons. He went to the Cape this summer and touched 98, reaching 96 regularly with a plus curveball, and transferred to Manatee to get away from UNC and become eligible for the 2017 draft, where he’s now among the top southpaws in the class.
16. Royce Lewis, OF/IF, JSerra (Aliso Viejo HS, Calif.) HS
There are serious questions about where Lewis is going to play defensively, and that puts a damper on his ranking. That being said, he showed surprising feel for the barrel this summer with some power projection and can really run. If a team thinks he can stick at shortstop, he’ll move up these rankings without haste.
17. Hans Crouse, RHP, Dana Hills (Dana Point, Calif.) HS
Crouse’s delivery is not aesthetically pleasing, and he has struggled at times to throw strikes while not showing a competent third pitch. Negatives aside, Crouse is one of the most intriguing hurlers in the class with a fastball that touches the high 90s with big life, and a curveball with the kind of hard spin you see in plus pitches.
18. Peter Solomon, RHP, Notre Dame
Solomon helped himself more than any other pitcher on the Cape this summer, and will appeal to clubs who emphasize player birthdates because he doesn’t turn 21 until next August. He’s athletic and has some projection remaining, already touching the mid-90s on the Cape, but needs to work on fastball command. Pitching for Mik Aoki, who has a history of overusing pitchers, won’t help his cause, however.
19. Trevor Rogers, LHP, Carlsbad (N.M.) HS
Rogers offers as much projection as any pitcher in the class, but he’s already touching 96 mph with his fastball. The secondary offerings are going to have to show more consistency if he’s going to stay a first-round prospect, however.
20. Alex Scherff, RHP, Grapevine (Colleyville, Texas) HS
Scherff doesn’t over the typical projection of some of the other hurlers in the class, but he does get his fastball up to 96 mph, and he has one of the best changeups in the class.
21. Kyle Hurt, RHP, Torrey Pines (Calif.) HS
Hurt was one of the real pleasant surprises of this year’s Area Code Games. Though not overpowering, he touched 94 in Long Beach, and he showed a change and curveball that both flashed above-average from a clean delivery that should allow him to throw plenty of strikes.
22. Alex Lange, RHP, LSU
Scouts who like Lange will point to his above-average fastball, a plus power curve and a change that features quality arm-speed and some fade. Scouts less enamored will point to the fact that the command isn’t good enough to start, and there’s a good deal of effort in the delivery.
23. Keston Hiura, OF, UC Irvine
Kiura’s bat is going to have to carry him, as he’s likely headed to left field as a professional. It just might do that, as the right-handed hitting outfielder has a smooth swing that is capable of hitting the ball hard to any part of the park, with enough leverage to project some power as well.
24. Cole Turney, OF, William B. Travis (Richmond, Texas) HS
Turney has a chance to be the highest drafted player from a pretty strong class in the Lone Star State. He showed plus power potential from the left side this summer, but he also showed the ability to go the other way with strong wrists and above-average bat speed.
25. Sam Carlson, RHP, Burnsville (Savage, Mn.) HS
Athletic, projectable prep right-hander with good feel for his off-speed stuff and an average fastball now that should end up a half to a full grade better than that.
26. Dalton Guthrie, SS, Florida
In a draft that’s light on college middle infielders, Guthrie stands out as one of the few who can stay up the middle and can hit. With solid contact rates but limited power that means he has to stay at short to project as a regular.
27. Conner Uselton, OF, Southmoore (Oklahoma City) HS
Uselton’s swing is far from picturesque, and the considerable movement could make it tough to for him to produce even an average hit tool. He’s also a terrific athlete with plenty of bat speed and power potential, and he should be competent corner outfielder.
28. Michael Gigliotti, OF, Lipscomb
Undrafted out of powerhouse Archbishop McCarthy in 2014, Gigliotti is a young left-handed hitter and plus runner with some surprising pull power and solid bat-to-ball skills, projecting to stay in center field as well.
29. Joe Boyle, RHP, North Oldham (Ky.) HS
Boyle offers almost zero projection, but with durable size (6-6, 225 pounds), a fastball that touches 96 and a competent curve and change, he doesn’t need it.
30. Quentin Holmes, OF, Monsignor McClancy Memorial (Elmhurst, N.Y.)
Holmes can hit and run but probably lacks the power for an outfield corner, so he’ll be a first-rounder just for teams that believe he stays in center, where his athleticism and quick-twitch actions could still make him an above-average everyday player.