With last week's MLB draft in the books, many teams acquired players who will rank as the top prospect in their organizations as soon as they sign, or at least close enough that it will be a good debate whether they rank first, second or third. Here's a quick look at teams that, in my opinion, just drafted their new No. 1 (or, in some cases, No. 2) prospect, with brief explanations why.
Bear in mind that any of these rankings can change between now and the end of the year -- or even between now and when I update the top 50 prospects in the minors after the Futures Game, given news about performances, injuries, mechanical changes or promotions. This also assumes that all players discussed here will sign, which is extremely likely based on recent history, but as we've seen with players such as Brady Aiken, it's not guaranteed, as players must pass physicals before signing.
Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize (No. 1 overall pick)
Look, it's possible that a team could pick first overall and not end up with its new No. 1 prospect -- if the Blue Jays had picked first this year, they couldn't possibly have landed someone better than Vlad Guerrero Jr., to pick one obvious example -- but most of the time, if you 1) have the first pick and 2) don't royally screw it up, you're going to end up with your new top dog. The Tigers have had some trouble in their system this year, with their top prospect from January, Franklin Perez, out since March with a lat strain; No. 5 prospect Matt Manning walking six men per nine innings in low-A; and several other top-10 prospects having disappointing starts to their year. (Two exceptions: Beau Burrows doing his workmanlike thing in Double-A and Christin Stewart off to a great start in Triple-A.) So Mize, the No. 1 prospect in this draft class by a wide margin, is easily the Tigers' new No. 1.
San Francisco Giants: Joey Bart (No. 2 overall pick)
The Giants nearly started the year without any players in my top 100, but several scouts who saw their first-rounder from last year, Heliot Ramos, last summer or fall pushed for his inclusion, so he made the list. His full-season debut has been bad, with a .233/.311/.376 line, although he's very young (18 until September) for low-A. Their No. 3 prospect, Tyler Beede, made his major league debut in May but didn't stick and has walked seven men per nine innings in the Pacific Coast League, and No. 5 prospect Garrett Williams, who seemed to turn a corner in performance and health last year, has been just as wild in Double-A. So things were a little bleak on the farm in San Francisco, allowing Bart to top the team's prospect list even though he wasn't as high on my personal board as he was on the industry's boards overall. Bart's selection should also prevent a shutout on my top 100 this winter regardless of what the Giants' other prospects do this year.
Atlanta Braves: Carter Stewart (No. 8 overall pick)
I had Stewart second on my overall board after Mize, so while Atlanta's system is loaded, the graduation of Ronald Acuna, Luiz Gohara and Mike Soroka, plus some good-not-great performances from guys already in the system, at least gives me reason to think Stewart is No. 1 right now on the Braves' farm. Some of this is driven by the fact that Stewart hasn't pitched in pro ball yet and thus hasn't had a chance to fail, and the evaluation of his prospect status is a function of pre-draft scouting reports (my own and others'), whereas Kyle Wright, Ian Anderson, Touki Toussaint and Bryse Wilson have all pitched in high-A and/or Double-A and have had some positives and negatives in their performances. Stewart's pure upside, however, is the highest of that whole group, with potential grade-70 pitches in the fastball and curveball, which I think still puts him at the top of the heap.
Miami Marlins: Connor Scott (No. 13 overall pick)
This one's a little more debatable, but I think I'd roll the dice on outfielder Scott's upside over Sandy Alcantara, who came into the year at No. 87 on my list but is missing fewer bats in Triple-A than he did in Double-A, and over Monte Harrison, who has been atrocious in his first go-round in Double-A and is struggling to hit anything but a fastball. One bit of good news in the system is that last year's first-rounder, right-hander Trevor Rogers, finally made his pro debut last month in low-A Greensboro. He does have an 8.78 ERA through four starts, however, so maybe that's not all good news.
Close, but no potato
New York Mets: Jarred Kelenic (No. 6 overall pick, No. 2 in system)
Kelenic has the highest upside in the system now that he's a Met, a potential five-tool center fielder whose only real question is his age (he's 19, old for a high school player). I couldn't rank him over Peter Alonso, the Mets' slugging first baseman who is hitting .312/.445/.576 with 15 homers for Binghamton, even though the circus is in town every time the Rumble Ponies play. Kelenic would probably edge out the Mets' prior two first-round picks, Justin Dunn and David Peterson, even though they are both having outstanding years in A-ball. (Speaking of which, do we need to start a Twitter campaign to #FreeDavidPeterson from low-A? I doubt Sally League hitters would be sorry to see the back of him, because when they see the front of him they usually make an out.)
Oakland Athletics: Kyler Murray (No. 9 overall pick, No. 2 in system)
The A's system has been totally jumbled since I ranked these guys in late January. The team's top prospect, A.J. Puk, looked unbelievable in spring training, then blew out a UCL and had Tommy John surgery before camp broke. Neither Jorge Mateo (No. 2) nor Franklin Barreto (No. 4) has hit well in Triple-A. The recovery of James Kaprielian (No. 3) from Tommy John surgery has been slowed by shoulder soreness. So there was at least an opportunity for the A's to draft their new No. 1 prospect -- except that lefty Jesus Luzardo, acquired in the Ryan Madson/Sean Doolittle trade, just barged in like the Kool-Aid Guy and claimed that top spot, as he's already finding success in Double-A at age 20, less than a year after his pro debut and return from Tommy John surgery. Murray also is not a slam-dunk top prospect himself -- I had him ranked No. 35 on my board because he still struck out rather often for a college hitting prospect, which reflects (I think) the minimal baseball experience he had coming into this spring. I'm also concerned about the playing time he'll miss this August and September (and maybe October, if he were willing to play in the Arizona Fall League) while playing handegg for Oklahoma. Murray's up there for the A's, but Luzardo is their new No. 1.
Boston Red Sox: Triston Casas (No. 26 overall pick, No. 2 in system)
I'm just going to leave this here for the moment: Jay Groome was my No. 1 prospect for the Red Sox coming into the year, but he had Tommy John surgery. I might still take his future over Casas', even understanding that there's some small chance he doesn't come all the way back (or back at all), but I reserve the right to change my mind. And I see you making progress there in Greenville, Alex Scherff.