The Philadelphia Phillies weren't really players for major free agents earlier this winter -- everyone expected them to be serious bidders in next winter's potentially epic free agent class -- but with Opening Day less than three weeks away, they took advantage of the soft market by signing Jake Arrieta to a three-year deal.
As dangerous as long-term contracts can be for pitchers, teams just kept handing them out for the past two decades, so three years is shockingly short for a pitcher who, while not Cy Young caliber any more, is still a well above-average starter. The fit here, however, is a strange one, with the Phillies still in the early stages of a rebuild, coming off a 66-96 season, and probably not contending until 2019 or 2020 at the earliest.
Arrieta went from an eight-win pitcher in 2015 to producing just over five WAR over the past two seasons, as the ridiculous command he showed in his Cy Young season didn't (and perhaps couldn't) last, while his slider has gone from the most effective in baseball to a below-average offering. He doesn't throw it for strikes as often as he did two years ago, and when it's in the zone, hitters hit it more often than they did.
His average fastball velocity is down 2.5 mph (per Fangraphs) in the same span. He also had huge trouble with left-handed hitters last year, giving up much more hard contact to lefties, mostly because they could sit on his fastball. He hasn't been hurt -- he has made 30 or more starts in three straight years -- but perhaps he's wearing down from heavy workloads and the cross-body delivery that has also made him so effective against right-handed batters.
The Phillies came into spring training with exactly one pitcher projected to produce at least two WAR, their No. 1 starter, Aaron Nola. They do have quite a bit of starting pitching depth in their system, but most of it was on their two A-ball affiliates in 2017, with only Thomas Eshelman -- a command guy with a below-average fastball -- likely to help the major league team this year. Arrieta thus becomes their No. 2 starter -- yeah, I know, he might start Opening Day because he's famous, but I'll bet Nola outproduces him if they both stay healthy -- and a two-win upgrade right now over whichever fifth starter candidate he replaces. The deal is also frontloaded, with $30 million (40 percent) of the total coming in year one, so if Arrieta doesn't opt out after year two but isn't actually hurt or terrible, the Phillies should be able to move the contract if they need to do so.
The drawbacks here are that Arrieta might be on a steeper decline than we realize, and that he's going to produce most of his value on this deal before the Phillies are actually good. They might sneak into respectability this year, but they're severe long shots for a playoff spot, even with the NL East as weak as it is. On paper, they're probably no better than seventh in the league right now, more likely ninth or 10th. And they aren't likely to make moves to contend this year that detract in any way from their rebuild.
If, however, they land a major prize next winter, such as Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, and Arrieta stays at least a league-average starter through the three-year deal, they'll likely extract a lot more real-world value from him even as his salary is decreasing. But that other drawback, that the stuff and performance decline from last year are both real and ongoing, that this is a Tim Lincecum situation where there's no actual injury but he's just wearing down after a great peak, is impossible for us to assess as outsiders. It's just a risk to acknowledge, and a concern the Phillies have to hope or believe is unfounded.