I covered Shohei Ohtani's potential as a pitcher and a position player in a post last weekend, which you can read in full if you want more details, but the executive summary is that he's a potential top-of-the-rotation starter but not likely to be an average regular as a position player.
His swing is long and he struck out at a high rate in Japan's NPB, so if nothing else, there would likely be a developmental period for him here -- and he's not going to get the 500 to 600 at-bats a year he might require to improve at the plate and become average or better offensively. The wrinkle here is that he went to a Los Angeles Angels team that happens to have at least one lineup spot that Ohtani could fill and provide an immediate benefit, even if he's still a below-average hitter.
Although so much of the coverage of Ohtani has focused on what he might do as a hitter -- which misses the point and has vastly overestimated his present hitting ability -- the bigger question for 2018 is how much he might actually pitch. Ohtani made just six starts in 2017 and threw 25 innings. He has never made more than 24 starts or thrown more than 160 innings in any NPB season, and he regularly pitched on more rest than he would receive here in a five-man rotation. I'm sure within a year or two we'll see him make 30 starts for the Angels, but for 2018, they shouldn't try to push him to a career-high workload as he comes off a lost year from ankle and quad injuries. Fortunately for the Halos, he doesn't have to pitch every fifth day to help them.
The Angels didn't have a pitcher generate more than two wins of value in 2017 (led by Parker Bridwell at 2.0 WAR, per Baseball-Reference, and even that was boosted by a fluky BABIP), and only had one pitcher, Ricky Nolasco, who qualified for the ERA title, so the bar is really, really low for Ohtani to make the Angels substantially better this year. He could make 20 starts, throw 120 innings and still be the best pitcher on the staff. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him do that and generate three-plus wins for the team, given that whoever he's replacing in the rotation is likely to be at or even below replacement level. Perhaps the Angels can massage Ohtani's workload to get more innings out of him by having him work on low pitch counts early in the year, but I don't think a forecast in which he qualifies for the ERA title is realistic, given his past workload and injury history.
Then there's the hitting side of the equation. You could argue -- I suppose I am arguing -- that of likely contenders for his services, the Angels were the best fit for him as a possible two-way player, because they had two black holes in the lineup where Ohtani could help, even if he's a below-average hitter in 2018. Ohtani can play the outfield and has plenty of arm for right (of course), where Kole Calhoun just had his worst year as a major leaguer, hitting .244/.333/.392, showing less power in a year when virtually everyone else showed more. Both Ohtani and Calhoun are left-handed hitters, so it's not a platoon situation, and if Ohtani plays right it will be at Calhoun's expense.
However, the albatross in the room is the designated hitter, Albert Pujols, who is done. Pujols was the worst regular in baseball in 2017, costing the Angels nearly two wins with his atrocious .241/.286/.386 line, and at 38 this year he isn't about to get any better. He has been bad since 2012, but this was a new low, as if he got a lot older in a hurry. If the Angels could just forget the fact that they're paying Pujols $114 million over the next four years, they would probably gain two wins just by letting Ohtani take those at bats against right-handed pitching and signing a right-handed hitter, like Austin Jackson, to a one-year deal to handle the rest.
Even if my skepticism over Ohtani developing as a hitter here while only playing part-time is justified, he could probably post a .280-290 OBP and slug .400-plus, which already makes him better than Pujols was last year -- and that's a pessimistic forecast. (I think Ohtani will end up with more OBP than that.) I can't imagine the Angels would do that, given the owner's obvious affinity for Pujols, but playing him just raises the level of difficulty for them as they try to return to the playoffs, and there's no need for it. Bench him, release him, whatever you like, just give Pujols' at-bats to other players.
If I were the general manager of a team in the Angels' division or even a team competing with them for a playoff spot, I'd be seething over a large-market team signing a player whose performance will easily be worth $20 million to $30 million for about a 10th of that amount.
The Angels have been hamstrung by bad financial decisions in the past -- Pujols, C.J. Wilson, Josh Hamilton -- and the result has been an imbalanced roster that couldn't get to the postseason because they didn't have the cash to acquire better players. The Player-Hater clause in the new CBA meant Ohtani was classified as an international "amateur" player, despite five seasons, 543 innings and over 1,000 at bats in the Japanese major leagues, so his bonus was capped by the same limits that apply to teenagers from the Dominican Republic. This outcome was inevitable once MLB refused to waive the rule and let Ohtani come over as a free agent, where he might have gone to the highest bidder, but at least that team would have paid fair market value for his services.
Now the Angels just got a difference-maker for their rotation at a tiny fraction of what he should have cost, and they still should have the money to go make further improvements to their pitching staff and/or upgrade at second base -- and with Ohtani in the fold, they have even greater incentive to do so. The Astros, Rangers, Mariners, and -- um, I swear there are five teams in that division, it'll come to me -- should all be furious that their direct rival just won the lottery.