The Houston Astros didn't have to make a big move this summer, with a 12-game lead in the loss column in the AL West as of this morning. But with Dallas Keuchel struggling a little bit post-injury and Lance McCullers Jr. on the disabled list again, they have had enough rotation questions that acquiring a durable, front-line starter for the playoffs made sense. I don't know if anyone expected them to do what they did, trading for Justin Verlander to join their rotation now and for the next two seasons. Given the uncertainty around every rotation member -- Keuchel, McCullers, Collin McHugh and Charlie Morton have all missed significant time in one or both of the past two seasons due to injury -- Verlander helps the team even if he's just an average starter but makes 30 starts a year.
Verlander had a couple of down years in 2014 and 2015, missing time due to injury in the latter season, but even in those years he still produced value. Then his strikeout rate bounced back in 2016 as his velocity returned. He's not only held the increased arm strength this year but is now throwing as hard as he did in his mid-20s peak years, and if he stays healthy the next two seasons I'd be willing to bet he provides the Astros with at least six wins of added value, which, given their contending status, would more than justify what the Astros are paying him.
The Detroit Tigers did well just to move Verlander's contract. The 34-year-old pitcher is due $56 million over the next two years, with a vesting option for 2020 if Verlander finishes in the top five in Cy Young voting in 2019. Detroit is paying $16 million of the deal, so that's $40 million off the books -- and they still got a few prospects back in return.
Franklin Perez is the best of the bunch, a 19-year-old right-hander already having success in Double-A, even though he's far from finished developing. I saw Perez in high-A in June at Wilmington; he was throwing 92-96 mph heat complemented with a plus changeup and fringy curveball, throwing a ton of strikes and getting some really awkward swings on the changeup -- even though you can see him turn the pitch over. The Astros have handled him very carefully, as he hasn't seen 100 pitches in any start this year, even as they've promoted him aggressively for his age. He's a potential No. 2 starter, maybe even more, depending on the development of the third pitch and his fastball command.
Outfielder Daz Cameron was the Astros' third pick in the 2015 draft haul that netted them Alex Bregman and top prospect Kyle Tucker, with Cameron signing for first-round money at the 37th overall selection. The son of longtime big leaguer Mike Cameron, Daz missed a huge part of 2016 with a broken finger and had to repeat low-A this year at age 20, but he's improved after a slow start, making more contact and showing average power. He's a true center fielder who probably won't match his father's power/speed combination, but should end up an above-average hitter who gets to 15-20 homers in some years and adds some value on the bases.
Catcher Jake Rogers has had a solid season at 22, although he's on the older side for Class A ball. I worry about his bat against better pitching as he swings uphill, and I've seen him struggle to adjust to changing speeds. He can really throw and seemed to catch well enough that he should end up a quality backup in the majors unless the bat is much better than what I saw.
As far as the Tigers’ haul, that's two above-average prospects and a third with some value in exchange for a contract Detroit had to move to try to turn their roster over and free up resources for younger players.