SHERMAN OAKS, Calif. -- Hunter Greene of Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks is the best prospect in this year's draft class. That's just considering him as a right-handed pitcher, but he would also be a top-10 talent as a shortstop, where he's a plus defender with raw power at the plate.
On Friday night, Greene made what was rumored to be his last pitching appearance of the season at Notre Dame -- a high school with a baseball stadium that would put some Division I college facilities to shame -- and showed the huge fastball and athleticism that make him almost certain to be one of the top two picks of the draft in June.
Greene started the game throwing 96-98 mph, and I didn't get a fastball reading under 94 in his seven innings of work. I saw one gun reading at 99, but 98 was the highest I got; he has hit 101 in shorter outings. Greene's fastball doesn't have much life, but it's very easy, and he showed some ability to both sink it and elevate it for swings and misses. He threw two changeups, both 89 mph, one in the dirt and one pretty good, especially because he maintained his arm speed.
The biggest question mark within Greene's present arsenal is his breaking ball. He's throwing both a curveball and slider now and they run into each other. On Friday night you could see how he was raising his arm to get some forced angle on the curveball, but I think he's going to end up a slider guy; his arm is too fast for him not to have at least a grade 55 slider, and once he's sticking with a single pitch, he will get a consistent grip and release point on the pitch.
Greene will still be 17 years old on draft day (June 12), and he’ll be one of the youngest pitchers in this draft class, one that has a number of prep pitchers who will already be 19 or older on draft day. He already has more raw talent than any pitcher in the class. He's around the plate enough for his age, and I have no problem projecting future plus control given how athletic he is. He's not crude so much as he's unrefined, dominating opponents on Friday night on pure talent. I think he's a future No. 1 starter, and the team that drafts him could also ease up on his innings by allowing him to play some shortstop and do some part-time hitting.
There was a huge crowd of scouts at the game Friday night, but the Twins (picking first) and Reds (second) were the best represented. I would imagine both teams are focused on Greene and Louisville left-handed pitcher/first baseman Brendan McKay with their top picks; there are other candidates, but those two have created separation from the rest of the pack. While I have had a couple of scouts tell me they think McKay has the best pure hit tool in the draft, I think it's more likely he's chosen as a left-handed starter, someone who should reach the majors very quickly and could be at least a No. 3 for a decade.
I saw McKay the first weekend of the season in a tournament at Clearwater, Florida, where he utterly dominated a bad lineup but also showed the command and three-pitch mix that makes me so confident that he's a big league starting pitcher. McKay was throwing 90-94 mph over his outing, without much movement, but located really well to the edges of the strike zone and to his arm side; when he missed, it was away to right-handed batters.
McKay also has one of the best present breaking balls in the class, thrown at 80-83 mph with the ability to change the angle on the pitch based on the hitter, throwing it to the back foot of right-handed batters and throwing a more traditional breaker to lefties. He threw a handful of changeups, also around 80-83 mph, with plus action to them; it’s a "string-puller" that had hitters way out in front.
McKay is a two-way guy but not a particularly athletic one; I think what you see is what you get. His delivery works, and he repeats it for that command. He pitches from way on the third-base side of the rubber, but if he shifted a little more toward the middle, he might be death to left-handed batters.
McKay and Greene are both two-way prospects -- if McKay couldn't pitch he could still go at the top as a bat -- but otherwise they're completely different. McKay is certainty: He looks like a major league starter right now and has a strong, lengthy track record of performance, both as a pitcher and a hitter. You might take him in June and have him start a big league game in September. Greene is risk: He needs to establish a better breaking ball, you're going to wait a year or two for the command to come, his fastball can get squared up even now because it's straight, and, of course, he carries the injury risk of any teenager who throws hard. He'd also be the first high school right-handed pitcher ever taken first overall if the Twins choose to select him.
I would take Greene, because I think potential stars like him are so hard to come by, but I couldn't criticize a team for favoring the high probability McKay offers and choosing to transfer taking some risk to later picks.
• I saw North Carolina prep outfielder Austin Beck, the biggest pop-up name of the spring so far, on Tuesday in a game against Little Sisters of the Poor ... not really, but it was about as bad a baseball game as I've ever seen and was called via mercy rule after three innings. Beck had four plate appearances and showed the bat speed and the size but nothing else, striking out and popping up along with a soft single to left.
Beck is a big, strong kid, compared physically to Mike Trout -- although Trout wasn't built like a brick house in high school -- and he apparently throws better than what I saw in infield/outfield practice, where he showed a below-average arm. I also thought the effort to his game, including the swing and strikeout on a bad breaking ball -- one pitch after he thought he'd drawn a 3-1 walk -- was shocking given what his teammates were doing at the plate in the same game.
I didn't get the best look, obviously, but what I saw didn't match up with the top-five-pick talk he's getting. He's playing on Monday in a double-up opportunity for scouts to see him in the afternoon and then prep lefty MacKenzie Gore, a probable top-15 pick, that evening.
• While in Florida for spring training, I caught a few amateurs, although some of the best ones were at the National High School Invitational event at USA Baseball's complex in Cary, North Carolina. The best prospect I saw was junior college lefty Brendon Little, whom I saw in high school in Malvern, Pennsylvania, when he was throwing 87-90 mph but did show the ability to spin a plus curveball. He went to UNC, threw about six innings his freshman year, and then went to the Cape Cod League and hit 97 mph. The lack of use for him by the Tar Heels is inexplicable, and Little was smart to transfer to State College of Florida in Manatee to get into the draft a year earlier.
I ended up seeing one of Little's best outings ever -- seven innings, 15 K’s, no walks, while throwing 90-94 mph as well as a plus curveball. Little had been dealing with a blister on his pitching hand, so for the first four innings he threw virtually nothing but fastballs, but he started flipping in the curveball in his later innings once his team had a lead. He showed that he could throw the curve for strikes or use it as a swing-and-miss pitch at 75-78 mph. He also threw a changeup at 82-86 mph, but mostly straight and without much feel for it.
The knock on Little is that he's a little undersized and his stride is shorter than you would like, so I think there's a strong sentiment that he's a future reliever. I don't buy into that; his two-pitch combo in a lefty is rare enough that I think there's at least a 50-50 chance he can start, and you send him out as a starter and let him demonstrate if he can do it.
Quick hits from Florida: Catcher M.J. Melendez at Westminster Christian is probably the best-throwing backstop in the draft class, although I think his arm is far better than his glove, and calling him a "catch and throw guy" is probably a bit much. He's overactive behind the plate and tried a few times to pick off runners at first only to pick off his own first baseman. At the plate, he has power, and his swing is good enough for him to hit enough to get to the majors, although I don't know if it'll be sufficient for him to be a starter. He's probably a good second-round pick, but the lack of catching at any level in this draft may get him selected before that.
• Right-hander Jake Eder at Calvary Christian was throwing 89-93 mph early in the outing that I saw, struggling with command and with his breaking ball, and by the end of his outing was throwing more 86-90. He has a projectable body and has shown more velocity before, but he's a long-term guy who needs delivery help and to work on his secondary stuff.
• Shortstop Brady McConnell of Merritt Island High School has been struggling at the plate this spring, which continued the day I saw him, as he was way too short to the ball and cutting through fastballs while appearing to be afraid to get to two strikes. He played better at shortstop than I had expected, with the hands and arm strength to stay there, and is an above-average runner with a good, athletic body. I just don't think there's enough of a present hit tool to take him high in the draft. He might be a good college guy who becomes a first-rounder with a couple of years of performance at Florida.
• University of Tampa right-hander Garrett Cave might sneak into the first day of the draft thanks to his 91-96 mph fastball, although he doesn't have another average pitch, and he needs some real work on his delivery to have any shot to remain a starter. He gets under the ball too often and doesn't have a consistent lower half, but there's nothing awful here that would point to injury or total inability to develop command.