<
>

Reasons to question Chapman deal? 86 million -- and one

play
Chapman returns to the Yankees (2:27)

Tim Kurkjian, Jim Bowden and Aaron Boone break down Aroldis Chapman's decision to return to the Yankees on a five-year, $86 million deal. Bowden gives a lot of credit to Brian Cashman for trading Chapman and then getting him back. (2:27)

The Yankees’ record-setting, five-year, $86 million deal with Aroldis Chapman might never hurt the Bombers financially, given their massive revenues, but it’s highly unlikely to work out for them on the field, given the unhappy track record of long-term contracts for relievers, and it’s a reprehensible signing, given what they know about Chapman’s character and actions.

I’ve identified 12 deals of four or more years given to relievers since 2000 but before this winter. In the past three weeks, teams have already handed out three more, to Chapman, Mark Melancon and Brett Cecil, with Kenley Jansen still unsigned. The track record of long-term deals for relievers is terrible, yet MLB teams are acting like a bunch of goldfish, so when some or all of these deals go south, please remind them that the little plastic castle was always there.

Chapman’s performance on the field might merit this salary, but not a contract of this length. He’s throwing as hard as ever now, and his reduced strikeout rate came with a reduced walk rate, so in the short term, the Yankees are probably getting the same pitcher they traded to the Cubs in July. But we saw in the postseason that he can revert to throwing almost exclusively fastballs with men on base and that hitters can square up on 100 mph if they can guess it’s coming, so his stuff can play down because of his approach.

The reality of reliever performance is you can’t project it five years because the attrition rate -- due to injury, loss of stuff or any other loss of effectiveness -- is so high. The Yankees aren’t winning anything in 2017 and maybe not quite in 2018, so if you figure their unbelievable farm system will lead to a contending club in 2019, it’s only about 50/50 that Chapman will still be a top-five reliever in baseball at that point.

The Yankees didn’t even specifically need Chapman as their closer. They have Dellin Betances, who’s at least Chapman’s peer in terms of missing bats and preventing runs, and he’s under team control for the next three seasons. They have Luis Severino, who might return to the rotation but was much more effective in 2016 in a relief role. The Yankees had other options to tide them over until they reach the point, probably in 2019, when they need to bolster their late-game relief corps. Doing that now seems premature, even if it helps them win another two games in 2017.

I can’t imagine giving someone with such serious character concerns -- starting but not ending with allegations of domestic violence and Chapman’s admission that he fired his gun into his garage wall -- a five-year deal with life-changing money. To borrow an old line from P.J. O’Rourke, it’s like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys. Chapman has not acted in a responsible manner off the field, and the Yankees' enabling him like this is a moral mistake as well as a financial risk for the franchise far beyond the normal risk of giving a closer a long-term deal.

An MLB team has a right to employ a player accused of domestic violence when he isn't suspended, but that doesn’t obligate any team to do so. I have not been a Yankees fan since I started working for Toronto in 2002, but if I were one today, I would not be able to remain so with this signing.