Boston makes the big move of the offseason so far, turning its rotation into one of the major’s best and widening the gap between its roster and the rest of the American League East. It comes at a huge cost to the farm system, which means -- in turn -- that the White Sox get a big jump-start to their rebuild process.
Chris Sale is a top-10 pitcher in baseball, maybe even top five, and gives Boston a ridiculous rotation for this upcoming season. Sale has finished in the top 10 among AL pitchers in WAR four times, strikeouts five times, strikeout rate five times, ERA five times and FIP five times, all in just five seasons as a starter. He’s produced more value by Wins Above Replacement than any other player from the 2010 draft class, ahead of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. His slider and changeup are both plus pitches; his fastball velocity has been plus, but was down in 2016, the year of his highest workload to date. He’s under team control for three years, guaranteed at $12 million in 2017 with club options for 2018 and 2019 that, if exercised, give him an additional $26 million. For the next two years, the Red Sox can roll out a rotation of Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Stephen Wright, and Eduardo Rodriguez, which produced just about 20 WAR (Fangraphs’ version) last year even with Rodriguez only throwing about half a season’s worth of innings, more than the Cubs got from their five primary starters (17.2) in 2016.
Regular readers of mine know I have always disliked Sale’s low-slot, high-elbow delivery, fearing it would lead to injury and/or push him to the bullpen, but in five years as a major-league starter, he’s never made fewer than 26 starts and has qualified for the ERA title every time. Some catastrophe could still befall him, especially if the loss of about a mile and a half of velocity is anything, but I think the worst the Red Sox should expect is that they’ll have to have Sale a skip a start or two each year.
After the rumor that Sale was going to the Nationals for Lucas Giolito and Victor Robles, the White Sox come out looking golden with a four-player package that includes three legitimate prospects, two among the best in baseball. Yoan Moncada is the most recognizable name and the one with major-league experience, albeit not positive. He’s built like a linebacker and runs like a track star, a switch-hitter with average present power and a better swing from the left side, a poor second baseman with a plus arm who’s developing into an above-average defender at third. Moncada was not ready to hit big-league pitching in September, and I don’t think he’ll be ready to do it in April. He struck out too much in the high minors for that transition, but the White Sox are better positioned to live with a low contact rate for a few months than the Red Sox are. If they don’t deal Todd Frazier now, they could look to do so in July and have Moncada take over then after another 250-300 at bats in Triple-A to work on his contact rate and on shortening up his right-handed swing.
Michael Kopech is one of the best pitching prospects in the game, a starter who has hit 101 mph regularly and sits in the upper 90s with feel for both the breaking ball and changeup. He’s an outstanding athlete with a good delivery that, in time, should allow him to develop average or better command, and he’s a competitive kid who isn’t afraid to attack hitters inside with his fastball. He missed some time in 2015 after a PED suspension, and then missed the start of 2016 after breaking his hand in an altercation with a teammate where, according to folks I’ve asked who know the full story, he was doing the right thing with the wrong result. When I saw him in October, I thought he was a potential ace who could have three plus pitches, and that’s before he went to the White Sox, who have a pretty good track record in getting the most out of athletic starters.
The White Sox also pick up the good Luis A. Basabe -- the other one who went to Arizona in the Brad Ziegler deal -- who’s a strong prospect in his own right, a true center fielder who’s also played the corners. Basabe is very toolsy, a plus runner with power and some on-base ability who already had some success in full-season ball at 19. The fourth prospect is Victor Diaz, a big-armed reliever with a good splitter but questionable command. He’s already 22 years old but has yet to pitch above low-A.
The Red Sox could afford to part with these guys because of what else is in their system. They have Rafael Devers, a top 10 prospect, on his way at third base, perhaps ready by the end of 2018. They have five starters all under team control for at least two more years, and still have Jason Groome, the team’s first-round pick (12th overall) in 2016, in the system.
Still, it’s hard to see this as anything but a repudiation of the Theo Epstein “well-oiled development machine” model. This Red Sox team is built to win now, and for the first time in 15 years, Boston is mortgaging the future to pay for the present. It has made the team substantially better -- on paper it is the best team in the American League right now -- but there’s a long-term price to pay for this new direction, and I suspect it will fall to someone else in four or five years to build the team back up.