The first in a series of Keith Law's scouting evaluations from Arizona's spring training action.
TEMPE, Ariz. -- This was not the Shohei Ohtani we were promised.
Ohtani's third start of spring training failed to live up to expectations -- although the expectations for him have been set so high that it would be hard for any mortal to meet them. But it wasn't the version of the guy I expected to see in my first live look at the Los Angeles Angels right-hander on the mound, as his stuff Friday was a little less than I anticipated and he had trouble with his delivery and command throughout his three-inning stint against the Tijuana Toros of the Mexican League.
Ohtani hit 95 mph a bunch of times, but that was his top velocity of the day. He was 91 to 95 mph into the fifth, with some two-seam life at the lower end of the range and some visible spin on the four-seamers at 94 to 95 mph, with the latter fooling a number of right-handed hitters. I've talked to scouts who have seen him throwing up to 99 mph in Japan, so topping out at 95 is a little odd, particularly while pitching with a week of rest. His slider is an absolute wipeout pitch, at least a grade 70, with good tilt and a late break that looks like it shouldn't even be physically possible, mostly thrown in the 76 to 81 mph range.
He threw a handful of splitters at 86 to 87 mph, but the majority of them ended up in the dirt; Rene Rivera was behind the dish, and he did not look like a big league catcher Friday. While the pitch itself is very sharp and looks like a fastball out of his hand, I think big league hitters will learn to lay off it if Ohtani never throws it for a strike. He also mixed in a show-me curveball at 68 to 70 mph that has tight rotation but seems superfluous given his slider -- as there's too much risk he'll hang one and get punished for it.
His bigger problem Friday was his delivery, though, not his stuff. Ohtani comes from a high three-quarters arm slot that gives him good downhill plane on his fastball and depth on both breaking pitches. But in Friday's start, he struggled to get to a consistent release point, losing it completely at the start of the third inning, when he fell behind the first batter 3-0 and eventually walked him, then hit the next batter with a fastball that rode way in to Ohtani's arm side. That in and of itself is not that unusual or concerning, but if it turns out he regularly has this issue in starts, that would be a significant problem for him, as it would mean he has ceded the inside corner to right-handers and seen his breaking balls both start to back up or hang on him.
This might all sound alarmist, particularly to Angels fans, but it's not. It's one bad start, and one where he showed a slider that many big league starters would kill to have on their best days. If I didn't tell you who the pitcher was, but instead said, "Hey, I saw a 6-foot-4 right-hander throw up to 95 mph with a 70-grade slider and some feel for a true splitter," you'd say that sounds like a pretty good big league starter. Ohtani did show he's mortal, though, and I think this tuneup gave him and the Angels some very specific points on which to work going forward.
• The Angels played a few of their hitting prospects in the game, notably Jahmai Jones, who singled and grounded out in his first two at-bats (before I left to write this post). Jones showed slightly above-average speed, as well as and that very direct swing that has produced strong contact rates for a teenager in pro ball over the past two years. I'm still very bullish on his offensive upside, although ultimately his ceiling will be determined by how much power he develops as he gets into his early 20s.