When the St. Louis Cardinals gave Brett Cecil four years, I wrote about the awful track record of relievers who received deals of that length. Of the 12 I could find since the turn of the century, four were terrible, one more is headed that way (David Robertson), and four others have failed to provide good returns on their investments. It’s a poor risk even within the world of long-term pitching contracts, which are inherently risky due to the nature of pitcher health. You just don’t give relievers four years. And yet this winter we might see three or even four guys get that kind of contract.

I thought Mark Melancon was worthy of a one-year deal, a good reliever with a history of injuries earlier in his career and some subtle signs of declining skills over the past two seasons. He’s 31 and has lost some fastball velocity over the past few years, switching to a cutter as his primary pitch to compensate. That pitch became much less effective at getting ground balls last season, and he’s around only league-average at missing bats. He should still be a solid late-game relief option in 2017, maybe into 2018, but there’s no way I’d bet on him retaining his value over the next four years. To give any reliever four years willfully ignores the history of such contracts, and to do it with Melancon willfully ignores his own history as well.

The Giants did have a clear need for relief help. Their lack of a high-end reliever cost them over the course of the regular season and contributed to their final loss in the playoffs. Their alternative to signing a reliever was hoping someone like Derek Law (no relation, regardless of what I say on Twitter) develops into that guy -- and it’s possible he will -- or that Ty Blach could flourish with a conversion to relief. But neither brings the certainty of an established veteran from outside the organization. This is an enormous price to pay for that kind of certainty.

Melancon was far from the best available closer option on the market, and I would imagine at least Kenley Jansen gets more now. I don’t know how his agent could justify getting his client -- a superior and younger pitcher with no past arm issues -- less money. Aroldis Chapman is a superior pitcher to Melancon as well but a PR nightmare and bad character guy whom many clubs may simply not want to employ.

Only a few clubs appear to have the money and desire to still sign an elite closer. The Yankees, Nationals, Dodgers and Marlins are probably it, though I think the Rangers would be a fit if they’re willing to spend. The problem free-agent closers can face is that there are plenty of front offices that do recognize the history of such contracts and just won’t go to four or five years for relievers because the odds of them working out are comfortably under 50 percent.

• Rich Hill re-signing with the Dodgers is a wonderful story -- a year and a half out of independent ball, the soon to be 37-year-old gets a three-year, $48 million contract, even though he threw only 139 innings in the majors after his return. Hill was actually the best free-agent pitcher on the market this winter, and the Dodgers needed him, with only Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda and Julio Urias returning as healthy starters. They do have a surplus now of not-totally-healthy pitchers, including Brandon McCarthy (two years, $23 million remaining), Hyun-Jin Ryu (two years, $15.67 million remaining) and Scott Kazmir (two years, $35.3 million remaining). McCarthy would be the most intriguing to me as a trade target, as he should be better now that he’ll be nearly two years off Tommy John surgery, and the cost is reasonable for a back-end starter. His 4.95 ERA on the season last year was bloated by his final outing, where he faced six batters, retired none, and saw them all score. Ryu has missed nearly all of the past two years with shoulder issues, and Kazmir pitched the most of the trio last year but wasn’t very effective as he struggled to throw his changeup or two-seamer for consistent strikes. Trading one or more of those guys would free up money and allow the Dodgers to slot Jose De Leon or Alex Wood into a rotation spot at a much lower cost without any loss of expected value.