This is the fifth annual installment of my "Guys I got wrong" piece (for past versions, see the links below). I'll look at players who have become much better big leaguers than I ever forecast them to be and try to explain where I made mistakes in evaluating them.
As with previous columns, I've included some players I didn't discuss much as prospects or young major leaguers -- errors of omission that are errors nonetheless. This allows me to talk about some guys who never received much praise or publicity anywhere, not just from me.
Players I was wrong about: In 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012
Kyle Hendricks, SP
Chicago Cubs
2016 WAR: 5.2
Could a guy I once wrote off as fifth-starter material win the National League Cy Young Award? Well, yes, obviously, since Hendricks is going to lead the National League in ERA (1.99), owns a 16-8 record (I had to look that up) and is even top 10 in fWAR, a metric that, for reasons I'll explain in a moment, does Hendricks no favors. I indeed had Hendricks as just a fifth starter -- a finesse guy with great control but lacking an out pitch. That last part turned out to be the key to the mistaken evaluation –- secondhand, I admit, as I didn't see Hendricks in the minors –- because his changeup was already pretty good when he reached the majors, and this year, it became one of the most valuable changeups in all of MLB.
When the Cubs acquired Hendricks in the Ryan Dempster dump trade in 2012, I had Hendricks working 87 mph to 89 mph, with an average changeup, good command/control and a repeatable delivery, but just not enough stuff. He's not throwing any harder now, but he's sinking the ball more, and of course, that pitch I called "average" has been anything but.
Hendricks is a rare bird, a sinker-changeup guy, although it's the execution of those two pitches this year that has truly set him apart from other pitchers. Batters rarely swing and miss at the sinker, but Hendricks throws it for a ton of called strikes, and 57 percent of the time that batters do put it into play, it's on the ground. Coupled with a plus-plus changeup that batters swing and miss at 25 percent of the time, Hendricks has a strong one-two punch that relies on command. But he has had command and control throwing to the middle-middle zone just 5 percent of the time this year, according to MLB's Statcast data, and, improbably enough, he gets called strikes on almost a third of them.
However, Hendricks won't really be quite this good -- not sub-2 ERA good, probably not top 10 in National League good –- going forward. For one thing, the Cubs' defense is in the midst of a historic season, with a .254 team BABIP that will be the best in any full season since 1976 and the best relative to league in longer than that, which is why all five of their starters have substantial gaps between their low ERAs and their 3+ FIPs. Hendricks has been the defense's favorite son, allowing a .246 BABIP this season, despite being a slight ground ball guy. (Ground balls, in general, are more likely to become hits than fly balls.) The Cubs' defense is filled with great defenders, and they position their fielders as well as any team in baseball, so much of the credit we might give to Hendricks, John Lackey or Jake Arrieta belongs to the fielders, the coaching staff and the analysts providing the data.
Hendricks also has pitched much better with men on base this year, something that isn't truly a skill or part of his history prior to 2016; that doesn't take away from his performance this year, but it points to some natural regression in his run prevention going forward. All of this is to say that Hendricks probably isn't a top 10 pitcher in the National League, but he's clearly an above-average starter, with command I underestimated and a changeup I just didn't know about, which is how I got him wrong.
Jerad Eickhoff, SP
Philadelphia Phillies
2016 WAR: 3.1
Eickhoff was pretty widely seen as an extra piece in the Cole Hamels deal, with more highly touted prospects Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro and Jake Thompson the primary return in the trade. Eickhoff might end up the most valuable piece that the Phillies acquired, even though he was originally just a 15th-round pick out of two-year Olney Central College in Illinois. (Williams and Thompson were both second-rounders.) I hadn't seen Eickhoff in the minors and, based on what I'd heard about him, had him as a back-end starter, saying he had the repertoire to start but giving him a limited, back-end ceiling. Eickhoff had a good curveball with Texas, but the Phillies' staff has encouraged him to throw it more often, and it's been a difference-making pitch for him. His curve accounted for 40 percent of his swings and misses in 2016, and it's one of the most effective curveballs in MLB right now; that pitch alone has made him more than just a back-end starter, and he has been the Phillies' most valuable starter this year. He is probably a league-average, No. 3 starter going forward with the arsenal he has –- average fastball, plus curveball, inconsistent slider that flashes plus but on which he makes too many mistakes –- and with 4-WAR potential, given his durability.
Chad Bettis, SP
Colorado Rockies
2016 WAR: 1.3
I rated Bettis somewhat highly as a prospect but always believed he would have to move to the bullpen, given his short stature, lack of downhill plane and the fact that he missed the 2012 season due to a shoulder injury. While I still think he would be much more effective in relief, he has held up now for 51 starts over the last season-plus, producing about four wins above replacement as a league-average starter for the Rockies. And anyone who can pitch at that level with half his games at Coors Field is worth leaving in the rotation.
Brian Dozier, 2B
Minnesota Twins
2016 WAR: 6.6
I've mentioned before that I was far too light on Dozier when he was a prospect, seeing a second baseman who could hit a little but didn't even project to average power. It's worth reiterating how far off I was: Dozier has 42 home runs, one shy of Davey Johnson's single-season record of 43 for the position. (Johnson hit one as a pinch hitter, and Dozier has hit two as a DH.) Always somewhat of a pull hitter, Dozier has become even more of one this year, ambushing pitches middle-in, and he is coming up through the ball in the ideal launch angle range for power. Never in a million years would I have seen this kind of home run output coming from Dozier, not just because his swing and approach have changed, but because he hit 16 home runs in total across 365 minor league games and never more than nine in any season.
Devon Travis, 2B
Toronto Blue Jays
2016 WAR: 2.5
I called Travis a nonprospect more than once on the basis of his awkward swing, his lack of power or patience and his average-at-best defense at second that sometimes looked worse. He has been pretty good in the majors when healthy, thanks to a .355 career BABIP that would rank in the top 10 in all of baseball if he qualified (since the start of 2015). He doesn't walk, and he still doesn't have much power, but he has changed his hands' starting position and his trigger just enough to get the bat head to the zone quickly enough to generate solid contact on a regular basis, even if I doubt he's a .355 BABIP guy going forward. Even if that regresses to something more reasonable, he will probably still be an everyday player of some variety, because he can handle second base and puts the ball in play enough to hit in the .280 range.