Editor's note: Now that free agency has started, Keith Law picks out possible best values, worst values and trade targets across every position group. He started with the catcher position, followed that with corner infielders, middle infielders and outfielders, and now continues the annual series with a look at the starting pitchers who have hit free agency, as well as some potential trade targets.
For the top 50 free agents across every position, click here.
Top free agents
Zack Greinke, RHP: I had Greinke one spot ahead of Price in my main rankings, but I won't argue with anyone who says the two should be flipped; both are bona fide aces, both are immediate difference-makers for 2016, both have strong health histories and reasonable arguments that they'll maintain their levels of output for several years to come. I gave a slight nod to Greinke, even though he's two years older than Price, because his style of pitching depends so little on velocity and so much on changing speeds and locations, a pitching approach that should survive even as his velocity faces its inevitable age-related decline.
David Price, LHP: If you prefer power in your starting pitchers, you should favor Price over Greinke. For all the nonsense ink spilled over Price's performances in October, it's not just a tiny sample that ignores how he actually pitched. He threw six shutout innings against the Royals in his first start against them before K.C.'s seventh-inning rally, then had a quality start his next time out but didn't get any run support; in three postseason starts in 2015, he pitched 21 1/3 innings, gave up 16 hits, 3 walks, and struck out 21, with the four home runs allowed the real root of the narrative that he lacks some sort of special woo-woo to handle October pressure. This the same guy who was nails as a reliever for the Rays in October 2008, but talking about that would undermine the narrative, right?
Johnny Cueto, RHP: I'd be talking about Cueto in the same breath as the first two guys if we knew exactly what was going on with him in the second half of the season -- especially if there's any reason for concern around his elbow, which bothered him on and off in 2015 but came up clean (that is, without a tear) on a midseason MRI. He made four good starts for the Royals right after they acquired him, then had a five-start stretch of awful, after which he either righted the ship or got to beat up on non-contenders for a few outings. There's no good explanation for his performances, and I would expect every suitor to ask a lot of questions before putting big money on the table. If he's 100 percent, he's an ace, but you're going to have to accept some risk.
Non-top 50 free agents of note
Chris Young, RHP: Young's partial season for the Royals was insanely good, especially given what came before -- out of baseball in 2013, a 5.02 FIP for Seattle in 2014 -- and I still wouldn't say I trust him to repeat it out of Kansas City, away from that stellar defense. His FIP was 4.52 last year, and even if you grant him some BABIP-reduction skills -- his career BABIP allowed is just .247 across nearly 1200 innings -- he's throwing 86 mph without plus control. There are some environments where he'd make sense; a big park with a great defensive unit, especially in the outfield, would extract more value from a year of his services. But since he was averaging more like 84 mph just a few years ago and had so much luck built into that successful 2015 season, I'm on the "no" side.
Alfredo Simon, RHP: I hated the trade for the Tigers that brought them Simon in exchange for Eugenio Suarez (a pretty useful middle infield prospect) and relief prospect Jonathan Crawford, mostly because Simon has just never been very good. His main attribute is that he soaks up a lot of innings, even pitching all year through a chronic knee issue, but he's homer-prone and doesn't miss many bats. Guys like Simon get guaranteed deals because there is never enough pitching to go around, but he doesn't provide much if any value over what a typical team's best high-minors pitching prospect would provide in the same role for half a million dollars.
Dillon Gee, RHP: Gee was a solid fifth starter for a couple of years before injuries and the sudden loss of his feel for his changeup in 2015 ran him out of Queens, although with all of the Mets' young arms that were coming he wasn't long for their rotation anyway. He's a control guy with some ground-ball tendencies, likely to be homer-prone thanks to the below-average fastball, but he could be someone's fifth starter for 20-25 starts this year for relatively little money.
Trade targets
The San Diego Padres rotation: The Padres have needs, and the one area where they have a clear surplus is their rotation, especially if Ian Kennedy accepts the team's somewhat surprising qualifying offer (though they couldn’t deal him before June 15 if he does). James Shields can opt out of his four-year deal after 2016, and Andrew Cashner is due to be a free agent next winter, making both of them sensible choices for the Padres -- already longshots to contend -- to flip to address their holes at center field or shortstop. Cashner has had just two full, healthy seasons as a starter, and one of them, 2015, featured a 4.34 ERA despite 14 starts coming at Petco. Tyson Ross has two years left to free agency, and like Cashner has had only two full, healthy seasons as a starter, leading the majors in walks allowed in 2015. His slider is vicious but he throws it with troubling frequency, which, combined with a violent delivery, doesn't give me the warm feels about his ability to stay healthy. They could even choose to eventually flip Kennedy, who, if he takes the offer, would be on a one-year, $15.8 million deal that overpays him but at least keeps the duration short. They have some options and GM A.J. Preller has shown a lot of creativity already in his role, something he'll need to convert one of these guys into the players their lineup lacks.
Jesse Chavez, RHP, Oakland Athletics: Chavez is entering his third and final year of arbitration, meaning he'll be a free agent after 2016, yet has never qualified for the ERA title (missing by five innings last season). He seems superfluous to an Oakland team that's rebuilding and has numerous rotation candidates due to make the minimum salary. He's been a big beneficiary of Oakland's commodious home ballpark, with a 5.14 road RA/4.52 road ERA over his two years as a starter, and as a career reliever may never see higher workloads than what he's had to deliver the last two years. It makes sense for the A's to try to flip him, as he won't merit a qualifying offer next winter, although buyers should beware his home run tendencies and lack of track record.
Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals: I doubt the Nats move Strasburg, as they're clearly in win-now mode and would be weakening their rotation at a time when they're also losing Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister. Nevertheless, there's some small case to be made that they should shop Strasburg, who's a year from free agency and very likely to test the market, leaving the team with just a draft pick in 2017 after his presumed departure. It would be a value play -- to get more now than you'll get a year from now plus the value of his work in 2016 -- and could net them a couple of prospects or even just one good young player with more years of control remaining from another contender. I don't think it'll happen and I'm not even sure I'd advise the Nats to shop him; they could still win the division with a good offseason and some contributions from rookies like Trea Turner in 2016.