The Colorado Rockies' forays into free agency the last few years have gone poorly, including the Ian Desmond contract (minus-1.1 WAR last year, the first of a five-year, $70 million deal), but they've been more aggressive than ever this winter. The latest move has them signing Wade Davis to one of the largest contracts ever given to a relief pitcher, three years and $52 million, a transaction that wouldn't make sense for most teams but makes especially little sense for Colorado.

This feels like an enormous bet on Davis returning to his form of 2014-15, even though there isn't really any concrete reason to believe that he will do so. In the last two years, Davis has been hurt and/or wild, and only playing in front of a great Cubs defense last season kept his ERA below 3.00. His FIP of 3.38 was probably more reflective of how well he pitched, and his value based on WAR was just 1.1 (via FanGraphs), which would make this $17 million average annual value (AAV) a serious overpay. Either the Rockies think his ninth-inning experience has real value, or they believe he's going to improve his underlying performance substantially by reducing his walks or somehow maintaining a well-below-average BABIP.

The history of long-term deals for relievers is poor anyway. The Rockies just finished paying Boone Logan $16.5 million over three years (2014-16) for 106 innings of below-average production, and they still have two years left on a deal with Mike Dunn, who produced 0.2 WAR last year, for $19 million total.

Davis missed about a quarter of 2016 with a flexor strain (slight damage to the muscle) near his right elbow and hasn't reached 60 innings in either of the last two seasons. He also had the worst strike percentage of his career in 2017, throwing 61.8 percent of his pitches for strikes, the third straight year his strike percentage has dropped. That could indicate that his elbow is still bothering him, or just that he's not the control specialist he appeared to be in 2014 and 2015. Either way, he's not someone you want to sign for a guaranteed three years, even less so for this kind of money, where the Rockies are unlikely to see anything close to a reasonable return on their investment.

The Rockies' bullpen looks improved on paper, with the additions of Davis and Bryan Shaw as well as the retention of Jake McGee, the best reliever available on the market. All three signed three-year deals, with the total of their AAVs over $35 million. Adding Dunn pushes that to nearly $42 million, or about 30 percent of the team's total expected payroll for 2018, with another 15 percent or so going to Desmond, who was below replacement level last year.

We have seen teams win with great bullpens in recent years, but they've rarely done so with this kind of expenditure. Instead, they've comprised home-grown relievers or cast-offs who thrived in a new role or for a new team, sometimes supplemented by one high-dollar reliever brought in from outside the organization -- Andrew Miller for the Indians, Aroldis Chapman for the Cubs and then the Yankees. Davis and McGee were both starting-pitching prospects for Tampa Bay who didn't work out in the rotation but had success in the bullpen; would the Rockies be better served converting one of their current starters to the bullpen, even as a short-term answer, rather than paying Davis $17 million a year for what might be less than 1.5 WAR over 60 innings? Is there really $17 million of difference between what they'll get from Davis -- assuming his elbow doesn't break -- or what they'd get from Jeff Hoffman in the same role, without the three-year commitment? I don't believe there is, but the size and length of these contracts threatens to limit the Rockies' ability to address other needs and get more reliable results for their money.